基于网络外部性的市场结构动态演化分析(pdf6)(1)

1,1,21,2000522,210093:,(),,,,,,,:;;;:F421:A:1672-0334(2006)01-0066-06AnalysisofDynamicalEvolutionofMarketStructureBasedonNetworkExternalitySUNWu2jun1,CHENHong2min1,CHENMei21AntaiSchoolofManagement,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,Shanghai200052,China2BusinessSchool,NanjingUniversity,Nanjing210093,ChinaAbstract:Networkexternalityisthemostsignificantfeatureofnetworkindustriesandinfluencesallkindsofenterprisescompetitivestrategies,suchasproductdifferentiation,pricing,compatibility,etc.Fromthee2volutionpointofview,byconstructingdynamicCournotmodel,thepaperanalyzesthenetworkexternalitieseffectsasentrybarriersonenterprisesdecisionsofmarketsentriesanddynamicevolutionofmarketstructure.Intermsofthestabilityanalysisofequilibriumpoints,whicharerepresentedbythestrengthdegreeofnetworkexternalities,theresultsshowthatthestrengthofnetworkexternalitiesplaysthekeyroleinmarketsentriesandcompetitiveadvantages.Furthermore,theresultsalsostressthatstrengthofnetworkexternalitiesdrivesactivelydynamicregulationofmarketstructure.Hence,theresultsareusefulforenterprisesandsocialregulatorstode2cidecompetitivestrategiesandindustrialpolicies.Keywords:networkexternality;dynamicalevolution;asymptoticalstability;entrybarriers:2005-11-06:(70172001);(2004036100):(1973-),,,,:19120062MANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINAVol.19No.1February,2006©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(MES),[1],MES,,,,,,;,,,,,VCRVHSBeta;,IT,Intel,IBM,,,,[2],(),FarrellSa2loner[3];Nagard,,[4];ChurchGandal,,[5]KimEconomides,,;,,[69][10],,,,,,,[11],,2N,c(c=0),,pi=ai-biqi-jiijqj+f(qei)(1)i,j=1,2,,N,pii;qii;aii,ai0;bii,biE0;ijji,ijE0;biijij;f(qei)E0i;qeii;[12]()qei=qiij(ji),ji,,,f(qi)=iqi,ii,i[0,1)[13],N,,,,,,,761:©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=ai-(bi-i)qi-jiijqj(2)i,j=1,2,,N,biiN,Cournot(2)Nqi=ai2(bi-i)-jiij+ji2(bi-i)qj(3)i,j=1,2,,N3,,Cournot(3),,Cournotqi(t+1)=ai2(bi-i)-jiij+ji2(bi-i)qj(t)(4)i,j=1,2,,N(4),i(t+1)(t)(4),qi(t)=ai2(bi-i)-jiij+ji2(bi-i)qj(t)(5)i,j=1,2,,Nsi=ai2(bi-i)0;mij=ij+ji2(bi-i)E0i,j=1,2,,N,ji(5)qi(t)=si-jimijqj(t)i,j=1,2,,N(6),(6),(I+M)q(t)=s(7),INN,q(t)=[q1(t),q2(t),,qN(t)]T,s=(s1,s2,,sN)T(T),MMNN=0m12m1Nm210m2NwmN1mN20NN(8)1A=(aij)nn|aii|ji|aij|,(i,j=1,2,,n)A-1[14],1(4)jiij+ji2(bi-i)1,(i,j=1,2,,N),q3(7),q3=(I+M)-1s(9),(4)q3(3)Cournotq34(4)q32(4)q3,(4)Jacobian()1,Ja2cobian[15],,(4),limtvq(t)=q3(4),,(4)Jacobian,()=maxi{|i|},MNN(4)Jacobianai0biijE0,Ni(i=1,2,,N)q3=(q31,q32,,q3N)TiNRN=[0,1)[0,1)[0,1)N,,iRNiq3i0,N,;iiq3i=0(,q3iF0,q3i=0,),q3j0(ji)i,,,j,j,;iq3iE0,,,,,PC;,3G3G,;,AOL12,Cournot,pi=1-(1-i)qi-qji,j=1,28620062©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(4),12Cournotqi(t+1)=12(1-i)-12(1-i)qj(t)(10)i,j=1,2(9)(10),CournotE3=(q31,q32)=[1-224(1-1)(1-2)-1,1-214(1-1)(1-2)-1](11),(10)JacobianJ=0-12(1-1)-12(1-2)0J1,2=12(1-1)(1-2)2,(10)E34(1-1)(1-2)1(12),4(1-1)(1-2)=1,12,(10),hopf,(10)E3(1):DS={(1,2)|4(1-1)(1-2)1,1E0,2E0}:DIS={(1,2)|4(1-1)(1-2)1,0F11,0F21}1(1,2)Figure1(1,2)TheParameterPhaseDiagrammaticofStabilityAnalysisofEquilibriumPoints,DSDIS3,DSDIS3,DS(1)112,2E12,DS1,q31F0,q32E12(1-2),[0,12(1-2)]:q31=0,q32=12(1-2),2=12,E31=(q31,q32)=(0,1)(10),1,2,1;,212,[0,12(1-2)](10),2,1(2)112,212,DS2,E32=(q31,q32)q31=1-224(1-1)(1-2)-10q32=1-214(1-1)(1-2)-10(13),12,p31=(1-1)(1-22)4(1-1)(1-2)-1p32=(1-21)(1-2)4(1-1)(1-2)-1(14)(3)1E12,212,DS3,E33=(q31,q32)=(1,0),1,1,2;,,112,[12(1-1),0](10),1,12(1-1),2DIS(4)1F12,212,DIS1,E34=(q31,q32)=(1,0);[12(1-1),0](5)112,212,DIS2,E35=(q31,q32)q31=1-224(1-1)(1-2)-10q32=1-214(1-1)(1-2)-10961:©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(6)112,2F12,DIS3,E36=(q31,q32)=(0,1);[0,12(1-2)]DS,12,,;DIS,12,,,,q2ti=[14(1-1)(1-2)]t(q0i-q3i)+q3it=0,1,2q2t+1i=-12(1-i)[14(1-1)(1-2)]t(q0j-q3j)+q3ii,j=1,2ij(15),q01q0212,12(15),(10)E3,DS=DS1DS2DS3,DIS=DIS1DIS2DIS3,1112DS1,21(112F2),21,2,2,,21,2,,1,2,(E31=(q31,q32)=(0,1))212DS2,12;(01,212),,12,,,,01212,(13)(14)q31q32,p31p32,3132(313212),E32=(q31,q32)0,12,,312DS3,12(212F1),1,12,1,12,2,1,1,(E33=(q31,q32)=(1,0))412DIS1,21(1F122),2,222E34=(q31,q32)=(1,0)[12(1-1),0]12,E3412(1-1)q01q31,(10),112(1-1)1(1=12112),q020,2(15),(t3),1(qt1=0,tEt3),2,2DIS3,1E36=(q31,q32)=(0,1)[0,12(1-2)],12,512DIS2,12(112,212),,,1212,q31q32,10720062©1994-2006ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(15),(t3),2(qt2=0,tEt3),1,1;,2112,2,1,,1212,12,q31,(15),21,,15(),,3G;Internet,IENavigator,5,,,,(1DIS2),,(1DS2),,;(1DIS2),,WTO,,,,,,3G,,,:[1].:[M].:,1993.[2].[M].:,1997.[3]FarrellJ,SalonerG.InstalledBaseandCompatibili2ty:Innovation,ProductPre2announcements,andPre2dation[J].AmericanEconomicReview,1986,76(5):940-955.[4]NagardEL,ManceauD.ModelingtheImpactofProductPre2announcementsintheContextofIndirectNetworkExternalities[J].InternationalJournalofResearchinMarketing,2001,18(3):203-219.[5]ChurchJ,GandalN.SystemsCompetition,VerticalMerger,andForeclosure