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南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文我国公务航空市场分析及机型选择姓名：周兴泰申请学位级别：硕士专业：交通运输规划与管理指导教师：朱金福20090301IIIAbstractBusinessaviation,asanemergingaviationfield,hasdevelopedfortenyearsinChina.Buttherearelargegapsbetweenourcountryanddevelopedonesondevelopingspeedandindustrialscale.Soitgivesreferenceeffectandpracticalsignificanceinpredictingthebusinessaviationmarketaccuratelyfortheenterprises’businessandmarketingstrategy.Theselectionsuitableaircrafttypecannotonlycreateprofitsthroughsavingcostsandestablishgoodimages,butalsocanlowercustomers’travelcost,providesuitableandconvenientservice.Inthisdissertation,thescaleofbusinessaviationandtheselectionofaircrafttypewerestudied.Firstofall,thefactorswhichrestrictthemarketdevelopmentwereanalyzedandsomeforecasttheorieswereappliedtoestablishamodelandthebusinessaviationmarketwaspredicted.Inordertolearnthemarketbetter,theoperationmodelsofforeignbusinessaviationwereintroducedinthedissertation,amodelofthebusinessaviationmarketsegmentationwasestablishedtocomparethebusinessaviationwithscheduledflightsbasedoncustomervaluetheory,andthepotentialmarketwasidentified.Then,fordifferenttypesofaircrafts,basedonthetravelcost,theaircrafttypeselectionrangedfromdifferentcustomerswithdifferenttimevalueanddifferentvoyageswasdiscussed.Furthermore,takingenvironmentalprotectionfactorsintoaccount,themethodtomeasurepollutantemissionswasintroducedandthesignificanceofnoisecontrolwasemphasizedinthisdissertation.KeyWords:BusinessAviation,MarketDemand,CombinationForecast,MarketSegmentation,AircraftTypeSelectionV2.1.....................................................................................143.1.....................................................................................233.2200737-800.........................................................................261.1...................................................................................................72.1.................................................................................................112.2........................................................................................................................132.3............................................................................................................................132.4.........................................................................................................152.5.................................................................................................152.6.............................................................................................................162.7.....................................................................................................162.8.....................................................................................................173.1.....................................................................233.21000NM..............................................................253.3200.........................................................................................264.1.........................................................................................294.2.............................................................................................304.3300NM............................................................................304.4600NM............................................................................314.51000NM..........................................................................314.6.....................................................................334.7IV-SP..............................................................................354.8IV-SP..............................................................................3511.1[1][2]601968272000607020198130198240203019964019961997601998636922000700100A319CJBBJ120200020083[3]6019NBAA18DC-360NBAANBAA60NBAA[4]198020199525519972061998[5]250007015180020[6]1.2[7]9031993NoPlaneNoGain[3]1.410001104NBAAGDP50500340[7]1.3[8]FractionalOwenership•1986248161986741999329156777.654.8520019•1120045.5%451647655.3%826870FAA200391K42ECACFAAECACFAAK[9]2003TealGroup[10]BusinessJetsMarketOverviewPartOneRichardAboulafia[11]BusinessJetsMarketOverviewPartTwo2005PhilippeA.Bonnefoy[12]VLJ(verylightjets)[13,14]2006ESTHERDYSON[15]JackJ.Pelton[16]THEFUTUREOFBUSINESSAVIATIONINEUROPEJeffreyA.Boyd,EllenJ.Bass,StephenD.Patek,DouglasW.Lee[17][18]CharacterizingtheAggregateBehaviorofanAirTaxiNetwork[19]MuharremManeandWilliamA.Crossley[20]90[21][22][23][24][25][26,27,28,29,30][31][32]4P61.41.4.1121.4.271.51.11.11.11.21.31.41.52.12.22.32.43.13.23.33.43.54.14.24.34.45.15.2819952.1[21]GDP520073204804810200720(FBO:fixedbaseoperator)2.291000GDP1413201000GDP2[33]180103.2/IV4.9/2913[34]80200010(1)115121(2)[22]4160200001000[35]FBO(fixedbaseoperator)FBOFBOFBO120003750[28]FBO2.32.3.12.280112.12.120042005200620072737.535404993.75532.52.3.2[36][37]4GM(1,1)1GM(1,1)GM(1,1)abGM(1,1)(1)(0)xGM(1,1)(0)(0)(0)(0)(0)((1),(2),(3),(4))xxxxx=(2737.5,3540,4993.75,5532.5)=(1)x(0)xAGO(accumulatedg