摩根士丹利全球原油市场基础分析

January2013GLOBALOILFUNDAMENTALS:WeakerFundamentalsShouldSoftenPricesButMaterialDownsideUnlikelyForotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHGlobalMorganStanley&Co.LLCHusseinAllidina,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]AdamLongson,CFA,[e-mail][e-mail][phone]GlobalOilFundamentalsWeakerFundamentalsShouldSoftenPricesButMaterialDownsideUnlikelyMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH2GlobalOilFundamentalsJanuary201329.829.330.630.730.129.930.630.329.029.530.030.531.01Q2Q3Q4Q20135YAvg…ButDownsideRiskLimited:InvestorPositioningAlreadyBearishExecutiveSummary:WeakerFundamentalsShouldSoftenPricesButMaterialDownsideUnlikelyWeakernear-termfundamentalsshouldweighon1H13prices.Althoughweseerisksskewedtotheupsideforthebalanceof2013(particularly2H13),weforecastlooseningoilbalancesin1H13,asabettersupplysidealongwithseasonallyandcyclicallyweakerdemand,coalescesimultaneously.Theimprovedsupply-demandbalanceshouldputmarginaldownwardpressureonBrentpricesoverthenextfewmonths,butwewouldcautioninvestorsnottobetoobearish.Plentyofupsiderisksremain,andthenumerouspotentialfundamentalresponsestolowerpriceswilllimitsustainabledownsiderisktoabove$90/bbl,inourview.Improvingsupplypicturemarginallybearishfor1H13:1)ReturningAfricanproduction(fromAngola,NigeriaandSouthSudan)andthepotentialforelevatedIranianexportsshouldimprovecrudeavailability.2)OPEC’smeetingonDec12thresultedinnochangetoquotas.WeexpectproductiontoremainnearcurrentlevelswhileIraqisupplyisexpectedtocontinuerampingthrough’13.3)NewUSpipelineinfrastructureshouldsupportUSproductionandhelpreduceUSlightimports,looseningAtlanticBasincrudebalances.Crudedemandtoweakenseasonallyandcyclicallyoverthecomingmonths:1)CrudedemandwillfallseasonallyfromDecember’speakaswinterdemandsubsidesandspringrefinerymaintenancebegins.2)WeakEUrefiningmarginsandnormalizingdistillatestocksshoulddiscouragecrudedemandin1Q13.EUgasoilcurvesarenowincontango,implyingsufficientsupply.3)Weakend-userdemandintheOECDshouldcontinueowingtostill-weakeconomicforecasts.Hardtobetoobearish:Downsiderisklimiteddespiteweakerfundamentals.Investorpositioningisalreadyquitebearishwithspeculativelengthnear52-weeklows.Moreover,thepotentialsupplyresponsetolowerpricescouldbesignificant.OPECisproducingatelevatedlevelswithastatedpricetargetof$100/bblsuggestingalargeproductioncutwouldshortlyfollow.SignificantlylowerBrentpricesalsoimplymuchweakerpricesforAmericancrudes,potentiallyslowingUSsupplygrowthprospects–thelargestsourceofsupplygrowthgloballyin2013.Lastly,lowerpricesshouldelicitademandresponse,mostevidentinUSgasolinedemand.Plentyofupsiderisksremain:As1H12demonstrated,weakerfundamentalsdon’talwaystranslateintolowerprices,andmanyofthesamefactorsarepresentin1H13.Withover750kb/dofnewAsianrefinerycapacityexpectedonlinein1H13,thepulloncrudefromEastofSuezshouldcontinuenextyear,akintowhatwasseeninthefirstfewmonthsof2012,albeitnotaspronounced.Wealsoseeevidenceofcomplacencysurroundinggeopoliticaleventseventhoughrisksremainelevated.Geopoliticscouldonceagaincometotheforefrontin1H13(e.g.USsanctionsonIranaresettointensifyinFeb)raisingriskpremiumandprice.Ourimprovedsupplypicturealsoassumessupplyoutagesfalltoamulti-yearlow,apotentiallygenerousassumption.Lastly,Asiandemandhasshownsignsofreacceleration,apositivethatwaslackingin1H12.(WTInetspeculativelength,futuresandoptions–‘000lots)Source:Bloomberg,CFTC,MorganStanleyCommodityResearchestimates150200250300350400JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20122011HittingAFundamentalSoftPatchin1H13…Sources:Bloomberg,IEA,MorganStanleyCommodityResearchestimates(CallonOPEC,mmb/d)MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH3GlobalOilFundamentalsJanuary2013-400-300-200-1000100200300400Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13NigeriaAngolaTotal02505007501000125015001750Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12ChinaIndiaKoreaJapanTurkeyOthersWAFandIranContributingToImprovedSupplyProspectsHeadinginto1H13Source:Bloomberg,MorganStanleyCommodityResearch(NigerianandAngolanexportloadings,kb/d–MoMΔ)Over260kb/dofWAFSupplyExpectedBackThroughJanSource:IEA,Reuters,MorganStanleyCommodityResearchestimates(Iraniancrudeexportsbydestination,kb/d)IranianExportsCouldFaceAdditionalDownsideAsUSSanctionsIntensify•Africansuppliesimproving.DespiteforcemajeuresonthreeNigerianstreams(Forcados,BrassRiver,andQuaIbo),WestAfricanloadingschedulesshowexportssettoriseby260kb/dthroughJanuary,suggestingthatcrudefromaffectedstreamsshouldbereturningimminently.WealsoassumeproductionwillreturnfromSouthSudanthroughout2013ascontinuingbordertensionsbetweenSudanandSouthSudanhavedelayedarestartinoilproduction,originallyscheduledforNovember15.With350kb/dofproductionshut-inandreportsemergingthatexportswillnotresumeuntilMarch,wenowonlymodel63kb/dcomingbackin1H13.•Iraniansupplyhasimproved,butUSsanctionssettointensifyagain.Iraniancrudeexportshaverisennearly300kb/dfrom3Q12lowswithKoreaonceagainimportingIraniancrude.TheIEAesti