由资本市场混沌理论看技术指标在股价预测中的有效性分析

,2003249~52BenoitMandelbortHausdorffMandelbortEdgarPetersPetersPetersEHM11976-2(1979-),,233020002820017200211999720001KDBOLL+-101KDBOLL3KDBOLLKDBOLL34EMHEMHEMH56BenoitMandelbortTheFractalGeometryofNatureW.H.FreemanandCompany,1982[M][M][M][M][M][J][J][J]AnEmpiricalAnalysisontheStock’PriceForecastbyUsingTechnologyIndexsbyCapitalMarketsChaosTheoryZHOUCaixiaZHANGBin(1.InstituteofEconomicsandManagement,NanjingUniversityofScienceandTechnology,2.NanjingCustom,JiangsuNanjing210094)Abstract:Thethesisselects30High-techEnterpriseswhichhadlistedinShanghaiSecurityExchangeascases,basedontheStocks’Pricetrendatthesametime,statisticthehistorydatesoftwopopulartechnologyindex(KDindexandBOLLBands)inChinesestockmarket,andthengetthecorrectgravityofjudgingStock’Priceforecastbyusingthetwoindex,analyzetherealvalueoftechnologyindexbyCapitalMarketsChaosTheory.Keywords:CapitalMarketsChaosTheoryKDindex;BOLLBands;Stocks’Price