电池市场分析与市场展望

BatteryMarketDevelopmentforConsumerElectronics,Automotive,andIndustrial:MaterialsRequirementsandTrendsChristophePILLOTDirector,AVICENNEENERGYPresentationOutline•Therechargeablebatterymarketin2013•TheLi-ionbatteryvaluechain•Li-ionbatterymaterialmarket•Forecasts&conclusionsMillionHEVpoweredbyLIBNumberofEVsoldworldwide(Million)[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,ChinaAVICENNEENERGY:RENOWNEDTOHAVEREALISTICFORECASTSHEVpoweredbyLithiumionbatteryforecastsfrom2008to2013EVsold,inmillionunits,worldwide,2010-2020012345201020152020Source:InternationalBatteryConference,FortLauderdale2007,2008,2009,2010&2011AABCJune2007200,20,40,60,811,21,41,61,82200820092010201120122013IIT2007IIT2008IIT2009IIT2010AAB(2012)ROLANDBERGER(2011)IIT(MARCH2010)ROLANDBERGER(2012)AVICENNE2007-2012DEUTSCHEBANK(2012)IIT(MARCH2011)AABREALITYAVICENNE2007MillionUnits/yearMillionUnits/YearTonsofcathode/Year$/[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,China3THEBATTERYMARKETISREALLYDYNAMIC20001500100050002013CellularPhonessoldperYear(Million)Li-ionNiMH20005004003002001000200MTablets195MPortablePCs2013PortablePCsoldperYear(Million)Li-ionNiMH20001000008000060000400002000002000Source:AVICENNEENERGYAnalyses20132013TonsofLi-ionCathodeperyear032,521,510,520002013Li-ion18650cellprice($/Wh)[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,China3500030000250002000015000100005000019902000201020122013Others(Flowbattery,NAS,…)Li-ionNiMHNiCD4Source:AVICENNEENERGY,2013THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-2013LithiumIonBattery:Highestgrowth&majorpartofindustryinve[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,China15000010000050000020000025000045000040000035000030000019902000201020122013Others(Flowbattery,NAS,…)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLeadAcid15000010000050000020000040000035000030000025000019902000201020122013THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-2013LithiumIonBattery:Highestgrowth&majorpartoftheinvestmentsLeadacidbatteries:Byfarthemostimportantmarket(90%marketshare)5Source:AVICENNEENERGY,2013BillionUS$BillionUS$199020002005201020122013201520201990[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,China9080706050403020100Others(Flowbattery,NAS,…)Li-ionNiMHNiCDLeadAcidTHEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKET1990-202054BILLIONUS$in2013–Packlevel15%AVERAGEGROWTHPERYEAR(1990-2013)69080706050403020100OTHERSAUTOMOTIVEINDUSTRIALE-BIKESPOWERTOOLSPORTABLESLISource:AVICENNEENERGY,2013SLI:Startlightandignitionbatteriesforcars,truck,moto,boatetc…PORTABLE:concumerelectronics(cellular,portablePCs,tablests,Camera,…),datacollection&handyterminals,POWERTools:powertoolsbutalsogardeningtoolsINDUSTRIAL••MOTIVE:Forklift(95%),othersSTATIONARY:Telecom,UPS,EnergyStorageSystem,Medical,Others(EmergencyLighting,Security,RailroadSignaling,,DieselGeneratorStarting,Control&Switchgear,AUTOMOTIVE:HEV,P-HEV,EVOTHERS:Medical:wheelchairs,medicalcarts,medicaldevices(surgicalpowertools,mobileinstrumentation(x-ray,ultrasound,EKG/ECG,largeoxygenconcentrators1-Pack:cell,cellassembly,BMS,connectors–Powerelectronics(DCDCconverters,invertors…)[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,ChinaSLIAutomotivePortable100004000030000200005000060000SLIAutomotivePortableOtherApplicationsMarineMedicaldevicesWheelchairMedicalCartOtherStationarySeismicESSOtherStand-byUPSTelecomOtherMotiveForkliftPowerTools7THEWORLDWIDEBATTERYMARKETIN2013:US$54BILLIONBatterymarketin2013(M$)20001200010000800060004000140001600018000E-BikesLeadAcidLIB1-Packlevel:Packincludingcells,cellsassembly,BMS,connectors–Powerelectronics(DCDCconverters,invertors…)notincludedSource:AVICENNEENERGY,2013OtherApplicationsMarineMedicaldevicesWheelchairMedicalCartOtherStationarySeismicESSOtherStand-byUPSTelecomOtherMotiveForkliftPowerToolsE-BikesMWhMWh200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132000200120022003200420052006[e-mail]rketandmaterialstrends2013-2025CIBF2014June18-20Shenzhen,ChinaLI-IONIN2013MAINAPPLICATIONS:CELLULAR,NOTEBOOK8Note:(1)2013:AvicenneForecasts(2)CelllevelCellularPhonesPortablePCsOthersTabletsDigitalCameraPowerToolsVideoGamesCamcordersMP3HouseholddevicesToysE-bikesAutoOthers5000Mcells–39000MWh12000M$(2)Li-ionBatterysales,MWh,Worldwide,2000-2013(1)400003500030000250002000015000100005000-CAGR2003/2013+26%peryearinVolume+14%peryearinvalueLi-ionBatterysales,MWh,Worldwide,2000-2013(1)220002000018000160001400012000100008000600040002000-M$M$200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132000200120022003200420052006200720