雅砻江流域梯级电站调节性对于华东电力市场竞争力分析和研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文雅砻江流域梯级电站调节性对于华东电力市场竞争力分析和研究姓名：陈晞申请学位级别：硕士专业：电气工程指导教师：蒋传文20060901BPPSOPSOBPBPAnalyseandresearchonthecompetitiveabilityoftheregulativecharacterofcascadehydropowerstationinYalongriverbaseonpowermarketofeastChinaAbstractItisimportanttofurtherthedevelopmentofthecascadehydropowerstationinYalongRiver,whichcanobtainoptimalresourcedistribution,satisfytheneedofthewesternexploitationandpromotetheeconomicsineasternandwesternregion.Consideringthepresentsituation,thispapersimplyanalysesthedevelopingprogramofthecascadehydropowerstationinYalongRiver.Runoffpredictionisalwaysoneofthemostimportantproblemsingenerationfirms,especiallyinthosewell-regulatedgenerationfirms.Undermarket,thispaperintroducesBPartificialneuralnetworkandparticleswarmoptimization,andappliesthemtotherunoffpredictioninthecascadehydropowerstationinYalongRiver.Moreover,addingtotheaffectionofpricemultiplier,theoptimaldispatchmodelisestablishedwiththeresultofrunoffpredictionasimportanddynamicprogrammethod.Consideringthewell-regulatedperformanceofthestation,theeliminatingsusceptanceprogrammeisalsoestablished.KeywordsCascadehydropowerstationinYalongriver,RunoffpredictionBPartificialneuralnetworkParticleSwarmOptimizationOptimumoperation,Powertransmission2200611432006114200611411.1,77609.4%9.5%9%200449294407012.6%351313361082625%197830.3:69.7200425.6:74.41.221a20057002010180020204000b72020057002010112020203730c2005750201016002020250030002,,,,3a,,,,,,,,,,,,,b,,,,,,,,c,,,,,,1.31.3.1142341.3.21-151-162.1[1],,,,1570km,1316km2,4420m,852km,1215km2,3180m1910m3/s,602m321,2610kW1540kW.h680km1630m,2.4,,,11,2285kW,87.5%,921kW,1245kW.h2-1412km,930m,1355kW,712kW.h50%2-111199912330kW1707kW.h100kW20%2005123186658m334m328%2.2[2]1202061740kW885.37kW.h2-1182-12020kW(kW.hm3200620106029.750.912199119993301705820072012240115.857.542005201436017477.6520072014480251.91.820082020270116.87120.312020157.7m31/31037%129%1046%22502005400201095020151150-15002020kW2-292-220202005201020152020kW20052010201520202504009501150(1500)1502004006001002002002003503507001[3]200214%2.330101[4]8110kW12501600kW2856kW2465kW62%330kW230kW220kW200kW300kW4480kW330kW360kW480kW240kW60kW1470kW1080kW100km2020800kW350700kW2[3]11a21WTO20101200kW500kW20202200kW1000kW2010b543.1kW43.3%200146.57kW.h2002830kW340kW19992001328.673547.7kW.h10%12c95.810.9%1422%78%40%60%20021996644220626796357.8231.5126.320003306758m319991865.5m32562.5m31454.6m3199949.7m3243.4m320%1/31%20001710kW451kW26.37%2000206226%5631kW1.19201020153179.2kW4988.7kW2201.6kW3891.1kW69.2%78%50%2010201518922968200013d182.971.051/kW.h50828.03%298480kW58.511.915.8222.414[5][6]Dooge-15BP3.1163.2[7][8][9]3.2.1[10]3.2.1.1[11][12][13]11723453.2.1.2[14][15][16]ijW183.2.1.3[17]13-1BP3-123-2BP193-233-33-343-4HopfieldBoltzmann203-43.2.2BPErrorBackPropagationBP3.2.2.1BP[18][19][20]BPBP1BP2BP3BP21aHecht-nielsenFunahashi331998CybenkoS34b42c22d13.2.2.2BPBP3-5ABCNAnBpCmABjiWi=1,2,,nj=1,2,,pBCjiVi=1,2,,pj=1,2,,mBibi=1,2,,pCici=1,2,,mjiWjiVklXklYkhYkiXkjYknXkmYABC3-53BP1Sigmoid2BP23111()()2NmkkjjkjETY==ω=−∑∑23-1kjTjkkNBP3E4BPjiWjiVibic-11BkiB1()nkikijjijBfWXb==+∑i=12,,p3-2kjXjSigmoid1()1yfxxe==−+3-3kjY1()pkjkjiiiYfVB==∑j=1,2,,m3-4kjE(1)()kkkkkjjjjjEYYTY=−−j=1,2,,m241NkjjkEE==∑3-5kjTkkjEkjjEjNkjE1(1)mkkkjkiiiijjBBVEφ==−∑i=12,,p3-6jkkkiijVaBE∆=i=12,,pj=1,2,,m1NjjikikVV=∆=∆∑(1)()jjjiiiVtVtV+=+∆3-7tkkjjcaE∆=j=1,2,,m1Njkjkcc=∆=∆∑(1)()jjjctctc+=+∆3-8ikkkjiiWaXψ∆=i=12,,nj=1,2,,p1NiijkjkWW=∆=∆∑(1)()jjiiijWtWtW+=+∆3-9kkiibaφ∆=i=12,,p251Nikikbb=∆=∆∑(1)()iiibtbtb+=+∆3-10Eε3.2.2.3BPBP1BPηηBP2BPBPBPBPηη26ηBPPSOBP3.2.3[21][22][23][24][25]ParticleSwarmOptimizationPSOKennedyEberhart12xvp,,igjtp,ijtp,,1,11,,22,,()()iiiiigijtjtjtjtjtjtvwvcrpxcrpx+=+−+−3-11,1,,1iiijtjtjtxxxv++=+3-1227j=1,2,,nji=1,2,,Mitwc1c2r1r2xconstriction3-113-123.2.4BPPSOBP1mεmaxTc1c2wixiv2i,jtp,,(0,1,,)iijtjtpxim==∇3-10()pEim{(),0,1,,}gpEMaxEiim==∇k,,gkjtjtpx=t=03tmaxTgEε,,igjtptmaxTgEε3-113-12,ijtx,ijtv3-5iEiE()pEiiE()pEi,()pEi=iE,,iijtjtpx=iEgEiEgEgE=iE,,gijtjtpx=t=t+1PSOBP,,igjtpBP3.2.5BP2819852000162001PSOBPPSOw=0.3c1=c2=2η=0.0210BP310000.1153112MATLAB3-12001m3/sPSOBPm3/sBPm3/sPSOBP(%)BP(%)1520532.2557.82.347.282484469.8533.2-2.9310.163435477.4570.29.7531.084559549.5553.1-1.71-1.055867369846.6-57.44-2.36634553571.810223.38-70.42724852503.24223.30.7369.958367936453234.1-0.92-12.09952665220.64195.8-0.86-20.3210252225291784.50.28-29.242001m3/sPOSBPm3/sBPm3/sPOSBP(%)BP(%)11117111301147.43.5-2.0212755799.9735.6-5.95-2.57293-6PSOBP3-7BP610113-1PSOBPBPPSOBP7.48%BP21.55%PSOBP128PSOBP876PSOBPPSOBP303.3PSOBP1BPBPBP2PSO,,,PSOPSOBPBP331[26]4.132[27]4.2[28][29][30]123871013330%50%30%50%4.350[31][32]()()4.3.14.3.1.1[33][34]1234344.3.1.21tQQ=()Qti=0,1,2,,mVtB(,,)BHQC=352amax1[][][]==×××∑miBPiKqiHi4-1bminmax[][][](1,2,...24)≤≤=NiNiNii4-2minmax[][][](1,2,...24)≤≤=ZiZiZii4-3minmax[][][](1,2,...24)≤≤=qiqiqii4-4[][1]([][][])[][1]([][][][][])(1,2,...24)ττ=−+−−∆=−++−+−−−∆=[]PiiK36[]qii[]Hiimin[]Nimax[]Niimax[]Zimin[]Ziimax[]qimin[]qii[]vii[]Qi[]qi[]wQiiτt∆4.3.2[35]4.3.2.1[36]1374-6111,11,iii