搜索
（一）WorldeconomyThejobscrisis失业危机It’scoming,whatevergovernmentsdo;buttheycanmakeitbetterorworse不论政府如何努力，失业危机已经到来。不过政府可以在这场危机中起到关键作用IllustrationbyBelleMellorNOTHINGevokesthemiseryofmassunemploymentmorethanthephotographsoftheDepression.Youcanseeitinthedrawnfacesofthemen,intheirshabbyclothes,intheireyes.Theirdespairspawnedpoliticalextremismthatleftastainonsociety;butitalsotaughtsubsequentgenerationsthatpublicpolicyhasavitalpartinalleviatingthesufferingofthosewhocannotgetwork.Thankstowelfareschemesandunemploymentbenefits,manyofwhichhavetheiroriginsinthosedarkdays,joblessnessnolongerplungespeopleintodestitution,atleastinthedevelopedworld.再没有什么比关于经济大萧条的照片更能让人体会大量失业的痛苦。这种痛苦显见于人们紧绷的面容，褴褛的衣衫，还有他们的眼神。由人们的绝望所引发的政治极端主义给社会留下污点；失业问题也使后人懂得公共政策在减轻失业痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利计划和失业救济金方案都发轫于那些灰暗的失业时期；受惠于这些计划，至少发达国家的人们不再因为失业而陷入穷困。Noteventhegloomiestpredictthattoday’sslumpwillapproachtheseverityoftheDepression,whichshrankAmerica’seconomybymorethanaquarter,andputaquarteroftheworking-agepopulationoutofajob.Butwiththeworldinitsdeepestrecessionsincethe1930sandglobaltradeshrinkingatitsfastestpacein80years,themiseryofmassunemploymentloomsnonetheless,andraisesthebigquestionposedintheDepression:whatshouldgovernmentsdo?即使是最悲观的预计都不认为眼下的衰退会接近大萧条的程度，后者使美国经济缩水四分之一，四分之一的就业人口失去工作。但随着世界经济出现自1930年代以来的最大幅度衰退以及全球贸易80年来的最快速萎缩，大规模失业的恶魇再度凸显，并且抛出了和大萧条时期一样的大问题：政府应该做些什么？Jointhequeue加入失业队伍IntherichworldthejoblossesarestarkestinAmerica,wheretherecessionbegan.Itsflexiblelabourmarkethasshed4.4mjobssincethedownturnbeganinDecember2007,includingmorethan600,000ineachofthepastthreemonths.Theunemploymentratejumpedto8.1%inFebruary,thehighestinaquarter-century.AnAmericanwholoseshisjobtodayhaslessofachanceoffindinganotheronethanatanytimesincerecordsbeganhalfacenturyago.Thatisespeciallyworryingwhenthefinancesofmanyhouseholdshavecometodependontwofullincomes.富裕国家的失业问题在衰退肇始的美国最为显著。自从07年12月经济陷入低迷以来，美国灵活的劳动力市场已经溢出了440万份失业，其中在过去三个月内每月产生了60万份。二月的失业率跃升至8.1%，是25年来的最高数字。比起有纪录的半个世纪内的任何时期，眼下失业的美国人更难再找到一份工作。特别是当很多家庭的财政依靠双职工收入的时候，这种情况尤其令人堪忧。ButitisalreadyclearthatunemploymentwillstrikehardfarbeyondAmericaandBritain.InJapanoutputisplungingfasterthaninotherricheconomies.Althoughunemploymentislow,rapidjoblossesamongJapan’sarmyoftemporaryworkersareexposingtheunfairnessofatwo-tierlabourmarketandstraininganegalitariansociety.然而显而易见的是，失业问题的沉重打击远不止于美国和英国。日本的生产量比其他富裕经济体下降得更快。尽管失业率尚低，但临时工当中快速增长的失业大军显示了“双层劳工市场”的不公平性，加剧了一个平等社会中的紧张。InEuropejoblessnesshasgrownfastestinplacessuchasSpainandIreland,wherebuildingboomshavecrashed,buthasonlybeguntoedgeupelsewhere.TheunemploymentratesinmanyEuropeancountriesarebelowAmerica’s,butthatmaybebecausetheirmorerigidlabourmarketsadjustmoreslowlytofallingdemand.GivenhowfastEuropeaneconomiesareshrinking,nobodydoubtsthatworseliesahead.Bytheendof2010,unemploymentinmuchoftherichworldislikelytobeabove10%.在欧洲，建筑业热潮遭遇重创的西班牙和爱尔兰等国失业速度增长最快，而在其他地方则初现端倪。很多欧洲国家的失业率都低于美国，但也许这只是因为它们有更加严格的劳工市场，从而对下降的市场需求适应更慢。面对着快速萎缩的欧洲经济，没有人会怀疑更糟糕的就业局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多数富裕国家的失业率可能会超过10%。Intheemergingworldthepatternwillbedifferent,buttheoutcomemorepainful.Astradeshrinks,millionsofworkersarelosingtheirfootholdonthebottomrungsoftheglobalsupplychain.Povertywillriseastheysinkintoinformalworkormovebacktotheland.TheWorldBankexpectssome53mpeopletofallbelowthelevelofextremepovertythisyear.发展中国家的情况就不一样了，只不过结果会更人头疼。随着贸易萎缩，数以百万计的工人正失去他们在全球供应链条底端的立锥之地。他们转向非正式工作或者回到农村，伴随而来的是贫困问题的抬头。世界银行预计，今年将有约5300万人降到极端贫困线以下。Politicsdictatesthatgovernmentsmustinterveneenergeticallytohelp.That’spartlybecausecapitalhastakensuchalargeshareofprofitsforsomanyyearsthatthependulumisboundtoswingbackandpartlybecause,havingjustgiventrillionsofdollarstothebanks,politicianswillbeunderpressuretoputvastamountsofmoneyintosavingjobs.Buthelpcannotbemeasuredindollarsalone.Badlydesignedpoliciescanbeself-defeating.Aftertherecessionsofthe1970sandearly1980s,Europe’srigidlabour-marketskeptunemploymenthighfordecades.政治上，政府必须全力介入进行援助。这一方面是因为多年以来资本在利润中占去了很大份额，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因为给了银行万亿计美元的当政者们承担着巨大的压力，需要大量注资来挽救就业岗位。然而挽救不能仅以美元来衡量。错误的决策反倒会弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的经济衰退以来，欧洲缺乏灵活度的劳动力市场就使失业率几十年来居高不下。Governmentsarepilinginwithshort-termhelpforworkers.InAmerica,whichhasoneofthelowestsocialsafetynetsintherichworld,extendingunemploymentbenefitswas,rightly,partoftherecentstimuluspackage.Japanisgivingsocialassistanceto“nonregular”workers,agroupthathaslongbeenignored.Ingeneral,however,itmakesmoresensetopaycompaniestokeeppeopleinworkthantosubsidiseunemployment.Manycountriesaretoppinguptheearningsofworkersonshortenedweeksorforcedleave.各国政府正为劳动者提供大量的短期援助。美国的社会保障体系在富裕国家中处于最低，而最近出台的经济刺激计划中，扩大失业救济金惠及面恰恰是计划中的一部分。日本为长期以来受忽视的“非固定”劳动者群体提供社会援助。不过总的来说，比起失业补助，资助企业以留住员工才是明智之举。很多国家通过缩短每周工作日或强制休假来满足劳工薪资。Thesearesensiblemeasures,solongastheyaretime-limited;for,intheshortterm,governmentsneedtodoalltheycantosustaindemand.Butthejobscrisis,alas,isunlikelytobeshort-lived.Eveniftherecessionendssoon(andthereislittlesignofthathappening),theassetbustandtheexcessiveborrowingthatledtoitarelikelytoovershadowtheworldeconomyformanyyearstocome.Moreover,manyofyesterday’sjobs,fromSpanishbricklayertoWallStreettrade