“互联网女皇”报告微信公众平台说明英文版

INTERNETTRENDS2015–CODECONFERENCEMaryMeekerMay27,2015kpcb.com/InternetTrends21)Internet–Two-ThirdsofaGenerationIn...2)KeyInternetTrends3)Re-ImaginingContinues...4)America’sEvolvingWorkEnvironment...5)BigInternetMarkets=China/India6)Public/PrivateCompanyData7)OneMoreThing...8)RanOuttaTimeThoughts/AppendixOutlineINTERNETTRENDS–TWO-THIRDSOFAGENERATIONIN...TWO-THIRDSOFNEXTGENERATIONOUT...4InternetUsers–19952014...1%to39%PopulationPenetrationGloballySource:Euromonitor,ITU,USCensus.23%28%19%USAChinaAsia(ex.China)EuropeRestofWorld199535MM+InternetUsers0.6%PopulationPenetration20142.8BInternetUsers39%PopulationPenetration10%21%61%0%12%22%5%5MobilePhoneUsers–19952014...1%to73%PopulationPenetrationGloballySource:Informa,WorldCellularInformationService(WCIS).Assumesin1995,onemobilephonesubscriptionperuniqueuser(noduplication).Note:In2014,userbaseperKPCBestimatesbasedonMorganStanleyResearchandITUdata.Smartphoneusers&mobilephoneusersrepresentuniqueindividualsowningmobiledevices;mobilesubscribersbasedonnumberofconnections&maythereforeoverstatenumberofmobileusers.199580MM+MobilePhoneUsers1%PopulationPenetrationSmartphone20145.2BMobilePhoneUsers73%PopulationPenetration40%60%FeaturePhone6Source:MorganStanley,CapitalIQ,Bloomberg.Note:MarketcapitalizationsareasofMay22,2015andDecember31,1995,respectivelyPublicInternetCompanyMarketCapitalizations–19952015...Top15CompaniesbyMarketCapitalization=1995@$17Billion2015@$2.4TrillionGlobalPublicInternetCompanies,RankedbyMarketCapitalizationAsofDecember,1995AsofMay,2015HomeMarketCap.HomeMarketCap.CompanyCountry($MM)CompanyCountry($MM)1234567891011NetscapeAppleAxelSpringerRentPathWeb.comPSINetNetcomOn-LineIAC/InteractiveCopartWavoCorporationiStarInternetUSAUSAGermanyUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSAUSACanada$5,4153,9182,3171,5559827423993263252031741234567891011AppleGoogleAlibabaFacebookAmazon.comTencenteBayBaiduPriceline.comSalesforce.comJD.comUSAUSAChinaUSAUSAChinaUSAChinaUSAUSAChina$763,567373,437232,755226,009199,139190,11072,54971,58162,64549,17347,7111213FirefoxCommunicationsUSAStorageComputerCorp.USA158951213Yahoo!NetflixUSAUSA40,80837,7001415LiveMicrosystemsiLiveUSAUSA86571415LinkedInTwitterUSAUSA24,71823,965TotalMarketCapofTop15$16,752TotalMarketCapofTop15$2,415,8677UserControlofContentUpSignificantly–19952015EvolutionofContentDiscovery,1975–2015,perNielsenSource:Nielson,12/14.8ImpactofInternetHasBeenExtraordinary&Broad...But–inManyWays–It’sJustBeginningNote:HarveyBallsestimatedegreetowhichInternethaschangedbehavior/outcomesinselectedsectorsofeconomy/society,4/15.InternetImpact,toDateSectorofEconomy/Society,USAConsumerBusinessSecurity/Safety/WarfareEducationHealthcareGovernment/Regulation/PolicyThinkingKEYINTERNETTRENDS10*DetailsonInternetUsers&SmartphoneSubscribersinAppendix.GlobalInternetUser+SmartphoneSubscriptionGrowth=Good,ButGrowthRateContinuestoSlow*•InternetUserGrowth=Solid,ButSlowing@2.8B,+8%in2014vs.+10%in2013,+11%in2012NetNewUserAdditions=~Flat@~200MMin2014/2013/2012ChinaUsers=+7%,USA=+2%,India=+33%,Japan=Flat,Brazil=+4%•SmartphoneSubscriptionGrowth=Strong,ButSlowing@2.1B,+23%in2014vs.+27%in2013,+65%in2012NetNewSubAdditions=~Flat@~370MM+in2014/2013ChinaSubs=+21%,USA=+9%,India=+55%,Japan=+5%,Brazil=+28%GlobalUsers/Subscriptions(B)11Source:ITU,Informa.DetailsonInternetUsers&SmartphoneSubscribersinAppendix.5.36.06.26.67.01.61.92.12.32.62.80.30.50.81.31.72.1024.646IncrementalInternet+SmartphoneUsers=HardertoGarnerOwingtoPhaseinAdoptionCycles...GlobalSmartphoneSubscriptions@76%PenetrationofInternetUsers30%PenetrationofMobileSubscriptions82010201022011201220132014TotalMobileSubscriptionsInternetUsersSmartphoneSubscriptions12Source:USCensus,Informa.GDPpercapitaisadjustedforpurchasing-powerparity,fromIMF.*These16countriesencompass3.1Bmobilenon-smartphonesubscriptions,52%ofworld’ssmartphonesubscriptions(27%ex.China),62%ofnon-smartphone(featurephone)subscriptions....IncrementalInternet+SmartphoneUsers=HardertoGarnerOwingtoDependenceonDevelopingMarketsDevelopingMarketsTendtoHaveLowerGDPperCapita/SpendingPower/Infrastructure$44K=AverageGDPPerCapita...In5Countrieswith50MMPopulation&~/50%SmartphoneSubPenetration...USA/Japan/Germany/UK/France$13K=AverageGDPPerCapita...In16Countries*with50MMPopulation&~/50%SmartphoneSubPenetration...China/India/Brazil/Indonesia/Russia/Mexico/Philippines/Thailand/Italy/Turkey/Nigeria/Vietnam/Egypt/Iran/Pakistan/Myanmar13Source:Cisco,2015.GlobalInternetUsage(DataTraffic)GrowthStrong=+21%Y/YAidedbyMobile+VideoConsumerInternetTraffic,Global=+21%in2014vs.+24%in2013,+31%in2012ConsumerInternetVideoTraffic,Global=64%ofconsumertrafficin2014vs.62%in2013,57%in2012MobileDataTraffic,Global=+69%in2014vs.+81%in2013,+70%in2012MobileVideoTraffic,Global=55%ofmobiletrafficvs.52%in2013,50%in2012HoursperDay0.314InternetUsage(Engagement)GrowthSolid+11%Y/Y=Mobile@3Hours/DayperUservs.1FiveYearsAgo,USATimeSpentperAdultUserperDaywithDigitalMedia,USA,2008–2015YTDSource:eMarketer9/14(2008-2010),eMarketer4/15(2011-2015).Note:OtherconnecteddevicesincludeOTTandgameconsoles.Mobileinclu