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201011326ModernEconomicScienceNov.2010Vo.l32No.6基于省际面板数据的实证检验顾乃华(,510632):,,,,,,:;;:A:1002-2848-2010(06)-0074-082090,,,,,:,,,,,,,,:2010-05-07:(:09CJY043)(:08JZD0014):(1977-),,,,,,SanDiegoStateUniversity,:1978,9020081978,48902.57,2.08,59.52%,1978-2008,(,)0.530.33,0.2,,,;,,:74;;,;,[1],,,,,,,,,,90,60%,,,[2],,:;2000-2007,;,,(PanelDataThresholdRegression),,,,,,,,,FDI,,:10-20,,;;,;[3]FDI:FDI,BlomstromFDI:(ProductivitySpil-lovers),FDI,;(MarketAccessSpillovers),FDI,[4],FDI,FDI,,[5]FDI,,,,,,,,,7550%,54.8%,52.3%,54%[6],,,,,,,45%,55%[6],,,,,,FDI:,,,,[7],,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,FDI,FDIFishwick,,[8];Das,,,,[9],,,,:,,,,,(),,FDI,,,,,2000,12.0%,32.6%28.4%26.6%[10],,,,,,,,(Makeor76Buy),,,(),,,,,,,,,,,[11],,,,FDI,,,,,,[12],,FDI,(1),,,,,;(2),,;(3),,;(4),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,(),,:lnYit=C1+1lnKit+2lnLit+3ROL+4ROLOPEN+it(1)77,it,30(),,20002007YKLGDP(2000),,()GDPGDP2000;,2000;,20072006,200620052007;ROL,,,,;OPEN,(RIMEX,GDP)(RFDI,FDIGDP),ROL,,YKLROLRIMEX20012008;RFDIFDIIMEXFDI,FDI,,RIMEXRFDI,,HausmansHausmans1%,,,cross-sectionSUR(PCSE),(),11TT0.5480.4801.1410.3340.4250.786lnK0.503***0.01048.8110.496***0.01049.206lnL0.488***0.0677.2870.520***0.0598.778ROL0.010***0.0025.9210.011***0.0027.104ROL*RIMEX0.001***0.000793.986ROL*RFDI0.0005**0.000241.992R20.9620.962F-1612.142***1532.440***:t,******1%5%10%,,:ROL0.01,1%,1,,1%ROLRIMEXRFDI0.0010.0005,1%,FDI1,FDI10%5%,FDI,:,,,,,,;,;,78(),?1.,:yit=1xit+e1,itq1i(2)yit==2xit+e2,itq2i(3),xitm;qi,xit,;,,Di()={qi},D{}(IndexFunction),qi,D=1,0xi()=xiDi(),(2)(3):yit=xit+xit()+eit(4)=2,=2-1,ei=[e1,ite2,it],,(4),,:S1()=e^it()e^it()(5):^=argminS1()(6)Hanson,(6)[13],,,H0:1=2,,,,(Non-stand-ardNon-similar),[14],,P,P,(BootStrap)H0,,;S0(),S1,:F=S0-S1()^2(7),,H0:^=,:LR(0)=S1()-S1(^)^2(8)LR,Hansen,,LR1(0)c()=-2ln(1-1-),1%5%10%,c()10.597.355.94,,F1,,^1,2,,,,,,,2.FDI,,(GridSearch),,RIMEXRFDI,Hansen10%,RIMEXRFDI,(200079)RIMEXRFDI0.21780.2075,,0.56060.5796F10.5633.4904,1%10%,;,LR1%,0.21780.2075RIMEXRFDIRIMEXRFDI,:lnYit=C1+1lnK+2lnL+3ROL(RIMEX0.2178)+3ROL(0.2178RIMEX)+eit(9)lnYit=C1+1lnK+2lnL+3ROL(RFDI0.2075)+3ROL(0.2075RFDI)+eit(10)2(RIMEX)(RFDI)TTlnK0.497***0.01434.5500.503***0.01533.568lnL0.495***0.1363.6400.541***0.1344.030ROL(RIMEX0.2178)0.0110****0.0024.640ROL(RIMEX0.2178)0.0123***0.0025.061ROL(RFDI0.2178)0.0113***0.00244.716ROL(RFDI0.2178)0.0105***0.00244.294:******1%5%10%(9)(10),2:,,ROL,,,,,ROL,0.0110.0123,12%,,FDI,ROL,,,FDI,,,200430,2004142002FDI2002FDI8(),,0.8,0.2,;,,100,,,,,FDI,,,[10],,,,,,,,FDI,80,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1],,.:[J].,2007(8):52-62.[2],.:[J].,2004(1):4-15.[3],,.[J].,2003(6):64-80.[4]BlomstrmM,GlobermanS,KokkoA.Thedeterminantsofhostcountryspilloversfromforeigndirectinvestment:reviewandsynthesisoftheliterature[R].SSE/EFIWorkingPaperSeriesinEconomicsandFinance,1999,NO.339.[5].FDI:[J].,2004(3):49-64.[6],.[J].,2005(9):20-22.[7],.[J].,1998(8):3-12.[8]FishwickF.Multinationalcompaniesandeconomiccon-centrationinEurope[M].GowerPublishingCompany,1981.[9]DasS.Externalities,andtechnologytransferthroughmultinationalcorporations:atheoreticalanalysis[J].JournalofInternationalEconomics,1987,22(1/2):171-182.[10],,.[J].,2006(8):5-12.[11],,.[J].,2007(6):51-64.[12],,.[J].,2005(1):27-46.[13]HansenBE.Samplesplittingandthresholdestimation[J].Econometrica,2000,68(3):575-603.[14].?[J].,2007(10):56-66.责任编辑校对:郑雅妮81ThresholdofOpeningUpandSpilloverEffectofServiceSectorsanEmpiricalResearchBasedonInter-provincialPanelDataGUNa-ihua(InstituteofIndustrialEconomics,JinanUniversity,HuangpuRdWest601,Guangzhou,China)Abstract:Thispaperinvestigatestherelevanceoftheshareofservicesectorsemploymentandthenation-aleconomyefficiencybasedonthethresholdregressionmodelandappliesthedegreeofopeningupasthresholdvariable.Theresultsindicatethatincreasingtheproportionofservicesectorsemploymentcanproducesoundspillovereffectsbyupgradingoftheconsumerstructure,providingemploymentopportunitiesandinteractingwithindustryandagriculture.Inthecourseofservicesectorsspillovereffects,theopeningupplaysasignif-icantregulatoryrole.Moreover,therearesignificantdifferencesinregulatoryfunctionbetweenthedevelop-mentofforeigntradeandforeigninvestmen.tKeywords:Serviceindustries;Spillovereffec;tPaneldatathresholdregressionTheMarketReactiononCorporatePhilanthropyofChineseCompaniesanEmpiricalStudyBasedonWenchuanEarthquakeSONGLin1,WANGJian-ling2(1.SchoolofEconomicsandFinance,XianJiaotongUniversity,Xian710061,China;2.SchoolofManagemen,tXianJiaotongUniversity,Xian710049,ChinaAbstract:ThispaperinvestigatesthemarketreactiontocorporatephilanthropicgivingtothereliefeffortfollowingtheMay12,2008WenchuanEarthquakeinSichuan,China,basedonasampleof136Chineselistedcompanies.Theresultsindicateastatisticallysignificantpositive7-daycumulativeabnormalreturncomparedtothecontrollingsamplecompaniesinChineseemergingcapitalmarke.tHowever,whenpartitioningthewholesampleintotwosamplegroups,oneofwhichisgovernmen-tcontrolledsampleandtheothernon-governmentcontrolledcompanysample,wefindthatthereisasignificantdifferencebetweenthetwogroups.Godfreysas-sertionthatphilanthropicgivingmustbeperceivedasb