某投资公司做的中国移动增值服务的投资分析报告

1Suite4310,JardineHouseOneConnaughtPlace,Central,HongKongTel+85229735311•Fax[phone]LATITUDECAPITALGROUP(10)84477398•Fax[phone]LCGMARKETPERSPECTIVESMobileServicesSectorReviewJuly2003China’sMobileServicesRevolutionMARKETOVERVIEWExplosiveMobileSubscriberGrowthChina’smobilecommunicationsmarkethasgrowndramati-callyinthepastdecade.In2002,China’smobilesubscriberbasesurpassed207milliontobecomethelargestmobileservicemarketintheworld.Currently,Chinacontinuestoaddapproximately4millionnewmobileuserseachmonth.TherapidadoptionofmobilecommunicationshasexceededeventheMinistryofInformationandIndustry’s(MII)owninternalestimates.LargestMobileUserBaseintheWorldandStillGrowing010020030040020022003E2004E2005E2006E(MillionofUsers)Source:2002figurefromMII2003-2006figuresfromIDCMobilePenetrationStillLowRelativetoMajorMarkets020406080100ChinaU.S.GermanyJapanSingaporeHongKong(%)Source:GoldmanSachs,InternationalTelecomUnionandEMCSubscriberGrowthIsDrivingDataServicesAsaresultofthegrowthinprepaidsubscribersandoverallpenetrationoflowerincomeusers,averagerevenueperuser(ARPU)hasbeendeclining.ChinaMobile(NYSE:CHL)andChinaUnicom(NYSE:CHU),thenation’stoptwomobileoperators,haveundertakenanumberofnewinitiativestopromotemobiledataservicestodriveARPUandreducedependenceonpurevoicetraffic.Suchinitiativeshaveledtothedramaticgrowthoftheshortmessagingservices(SMS)market,whichincreasedfour-foldin2002.ThepaceofSMSgrowthinthepastyearhasdramaticallytransformedChina’smobilelandscapeandunderscoredtheimportanceofdataservicestomobileoperators.SMSMarketTakesOff02040608010020012002(billion)00.20.40.60.81(US$billion)SMSSentbyChinaMobileSubscribers(Left)SMSRevenuetoChinaMobile(Right)*Source:ChinaMobile*US$0.012(Rmb0.10)perSMS(Rmb8.27/US$1.00)Althoughpoint-to-point(P2P)SMSconstitutesareported70%-80%oftotalSMStrafficandisthemajordriverforSMSgrowthtodate,bothmajormobileoperatorshavelaunchedinformationservicesbasedonthei-ModerevenuesharingbusinessmodelpioneeredbyNTTDoCoMoinJapantodrivevalue-addeddataservices.ChinaMobile’sdataservicesinitiativeiscalled“Monternet”andChinaUnicom’sisknownas“Uni-Info”.In2002,serviceproviders(“SPs”)revenueaccountedfor15.6%oftotalmobilerevenue,upfrom7.9%in2001.SPrevenueisanticipatedtoconstituteanincreasinglyimportantrevenuesegmentasmorevalue-addedservicesbecomeavailableinthe2.5G/3Gera.AccordingtoChinaMobile’sownprojections,datarelatedrevenueswillaccountforapproximately8%ofChinaMobile’srevenueby2005.SMS(andMMS)RevenueasaPercentageofTotalRevenue0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%200120022003E2004E2005EChinaMobileChinaUnicomSource:CompanydataandindustryresearchMonternetandUni-InfoInitiativesInFebruary1999,NTTDoCoMolaunchedanewandtrulygroundbreakingmobiledataserviceinJapan,i-Mode.By2001,DoCoMo’si-Modeservicehadalreadysurpassed30millionusers.2Suite4310,JardineHouseOneConnaughtPlace,Central,HongKongTel+85229735311•Fax[phone]LATITUDECAPITALGROUP(10)84477398•Fax[phone]LCGMARKETPERSPECTIVESMobileServicesSectorReviewFollowingtheleadofDoCoMo’si-Modesuccess,ChinaMobilelauncheditsownversionofi-ModeinChinaundertheMonternetbrandnameinFebruary2001.ChinaUnicomfollowedshortlythereafterwiththelaunchofitsproprietarymobiledataservice,Uni-Info,inOctober2001.LikeDoCoMo,ChinaMobile’sMonternetandChinaUnicom’sUni-InfomobiledataserviceinitiativeshavespawnedthedevelopmentofanentireindustryofSPs.TheseSPsfocusondevelopingandmarketingmobilecontentandrelatedservicesoverChinaMobile’sandChinaUnicom’snetworks.MonternetandUni-InfoSnapshotOperatorChinaMobileChinaUnicomDateLaunchedFebruary2001October2001ServiceProvidersOver400SPsLessthan100SPsRevenueSharingStructure15%commissionasportionofSPs’revenuesandnominalnetworkcharge12%commissionasportionofSPs’revenuesandnominalnetworkchargeVASMessagesSent2.5bnmessagessentin200111bnmessagessentin2002300mnmessagessentin20014bnmessagessentin2002Source:ChinaMobile&ChinaUnicomNextGeneration2.5G/3GTechnologyDevelopmentsChinaMobileandChinaUnicomcontinuetoinvestheavilyinnextgenerationmobilenetworktechnology.ChinaMobileandChinaUnicomreportedCAPEXspendingfrom2000to2002ofapproximatelyUS$14.4billionandUS$9.1billionrespectively.ThemajorityofCAPEXsince2000forthetwomobilecarriershasbeenprimarilyallocatedtowardsGPRSandCDMAinvestments.Asthese2.5G/3Gnetworkscomeonstream,theindustryshouldexperiencesignificantgrowthin2.5G/3Gsubscribersoverthecomingyears.SignificantCAPEXinChinabyMobileOperators01234567200020012002(US$billion)ChinaMobileChinaUnicomSource:ChinaMobile&ChinaUnicomAccordingtothe2003AsiaTelecomsStudy(ATI),whichwasconductedinApril2003across11Asiancountries,25%ofmobilephoneownersareusing,orlikelytostartusing2.5Gand3Gserviceswithinthenext6months.2.5G/3GSubscriberGrowthinChina050100150200250300350200320042005(million)051015202530(%)2.5G/3GUsers(Left)TotalMobileUsers(Left)2.5G/3GMarketPenetration(Right)Source:MII,LCGEstimatesWiththeinfluxof2.5G/3Gtechnology,mobil