生产性服务业发展与江苏制造业竞争力提升

南京师范大学硕士学位论文生产性服务业发展与江苏制造业竞争力提升姓名：徐月申请学位级别：硕士专业：经济学；政治经济学指导教师：申俊喜2009-05摘要I摘要随着经济发展水平的不断提高，产业结构将不断软化，国民经济服务化是必然趋势。江苏正处于国民经济增长和结构升级的过程中，在实施“工业强省”战略过程中，如何统筹兼顾，突出重点，实现制造业的可持续发展是新时期江苏省国民经济实现跨越式发展亟待研究的重大课题。尽管目前江苏制造业产值总量很大，具有一定的竞争优势，但在产品国际内分工背景下，跨国公司把发展中国家作为工业品的生产加工基地，江苏制造业仅处于世界制造业产业链的底端。其增长主要靠劳动密集型和资本密集型产业来推动，区域内制造业的整体产业结构偏低，产业升级更多地是依靠外资来启动，江苏制造业的发展面临挑战。因此本文认为需要大力发展生产性服务业为制造业的可持续发展安装起飞的翅膀和脑袋。本文通过幂函数，分析生产性服务业对于制造业的支撑作用，结果显示生产性服务业增长1个百分点，制造业的增加值仅上涨0.624个百分点。为了进一步分析生产性服务业对于制造业效率的作用，文章运用VAR模型，同时结合脉冲响应函数以及方差分解进行分析，结果显示人才流、资金流、知识和信息流、物流服务业发展对于制造业的影响存在极大的差异。VAR模型结果显示，当期制造业和资金服务业的发展水平对下期制造业的影响度较高。脉冲响应函数分析表明：（1）制造业的增长与人才流服务增长之间具有正相关关系；（2）制造业的增长与资金服务增长之间具有负相关关系；（3）制造业的增长与知识和信息服务增长之间在影响关系不大；（4）制造业的增长与物流服务增长之间的关系存在很大的时间滞后。方差分解的结果显示人才流服务和资金流服务对于制作业的贡献较大，相对而言知识信息流以及物流业的贡献较小。另外PanelData模型回归分析结果表明：劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术密集型所受生产性服务业的影响存在很大的差异。物流服务业对劳动密集型和资本密集型的制造业竞争力影响最大，而技术密集型制造业的增加值的最大影响因素是人才流服务。基于以上实证分析结果，本文建议以围绕“为制造业提供专业服务”大力发展生产性服务业，同时搭建两者信息互动平台，以产业集群的方式促进两者的协同发展。关键词：生产性服务业江苏制造业竞争力向量自回归模型脉冲响应函数PanelData模型AbstractIIAbstractWiththedevelopmentofeconomy,it'saninevitabletrendthatindustrialstructurewillsoftenandnationaleconomyturnsservice.NowJiangsuisintheprocessofeconomyincreasesandstructureupgradesWhenweactthestrategyofindustrializingJiangsuprovince,Inordertoachievegreat-leaveforwarddevelopmentofJiangsu'seconomy,thereisamajorissueurgentlyneededtoberesearchedthathowtomakeoverallplansandtakeallfactorsintoconsideration,giveprominencetowhat'simportant,realizethesustainabledevelopmentofmanufacturingindustry.ThroughthetotalproductionvalueofJiangsumanufacturingindustryisverylargeandgainssomeadvantages,it'sstillattheendofthechaininthemanufacturingindustry，formultinationalcorporationsputdevelopingcountriesasaroleofindustrialproduct'sproductionandprocessingbasesinthecontextofproductsinternationaldivision..NowthegrowthofJiangsu'smanufacturingindustryispromotedbylabor-intensiveandcapital-intensiveindustry,theoverallindustrialstructureofmanufacturingindustryislowintheregion,itmainlydependsonforeigninvestmenttoupgradeindustry.Therefore,therewillbesomechallengesinthedevelopmentofJiangsu'manufacturingindustry.Thispaperelaboratesthatit'sneededtovigorouslydevelopproducerservicestoinstallwingsandheadthatenablethetake-offofsustainabledevelopmentofmanufacturingindustry.Thispaperanalyzesthesupportingeffectthatproductiveserviceindustryimpactsonmanufacturingindustrythroughpowerfunction.Andtheresultshowsthatproductiveserviceindustryincreases1percentagepoints,theaddedvalueofmanufacturingindustryonlyincreases0.624percentagepoints.Inordertoanalyzetheeffectfurther,thepaperapplyVARmodel,integratingImpulseResponseFunctionandVariancedecompositiontoanalyzeit.Theresultrevealsthattherearegreatdifferencesintheinfluenceofpersonnelflow,capitalflow,knowledgeandinformationflow,andthedevelopmentofmaterialflowserviceindustryonmanufacturingindustry.AccordingtotheresultofVARmodel,nowthedevelopmentofmanufacturingindustryandcapitalserviceindustryhavemuchinfluenceonthemanufacturingindustryAbstractIIIofnextgeneration.AstheImpulseResponseFunctionshows:(1)Theincrementofmanufacturingindustryisindirectproportiontotheincrementofpersonnelflowservice.(2)Theincrementofmanufacturingindustryisininversionproportiontotheincrementofcapitalservice;(3)theinfluenceofknowledgeandinformationservice’sincrementonmanufacturingindustryislittle.(4)theincrementofmaterialflowisaheadoftheincrementofthemanufacturingindustry.TheresultofVariancedecompositionshowthatpersonnelflowserviceandcapitalflowservicemakemorecontributiontothemanufacturingindustrythanknowledgeandinformationflowserviceandmaterialflowservice.TheregressiveanalysisresultofPanelDataModulealsoshowsthattheinfluencesofproductiveserviceindustryonlabor-intensiveindustry,capital-intensiveandskill-intensiveindustryisdifferent.Materialflowserviceindustryhasgreatinfluenceonlabor-intensiveandcapital-intensivemanufacturingindustry,andpersonnelflowserviceindustryhavegreatinfluenceontheincrementofskill-intensivemanufacturingindustry.Accordingtothedemonstrableanalysisabove,thispapersuggestthatweshoulddevelopproductiveserviceindustrywithstayingfocusonprovidingprofessionalserviceformanufacturingindustry.Meanwhile,weshouldbuildaninteractiveplatformbetweenproductiveserviceindustryandmanufacturingindustry,andpromotetheirincrementconcurrently.Keyword：ProducerServicesVectorAutoregressionImpulseResponseFunctionPanelDataModel目录VI表目录表2-12002年中国各类服务业作为中间投入品的服务业占其总产出的比重..........10表2-2中、美、日三国服务业与各产业的关联效果...............................11表3-1江苏三产的劳动生产率比较.............................................20表3-2江苏省2004年度经济普查的基本数据....................................21表3-3贝尔五阶段理论......................................................30表3-4生产性服务业分类统计标准.............................................31表3-5随机误差项的WHITE检验...............................................32表3-6hy的增长对my增长的贡献值...........................................37表3-7ky的增长对my增长的贡献值...........................................37表3-8iy的增长对my增长的贡献值...........................................37表3-9ly的增长对my增长的贡献值....................