XXXX10nielsenchina savings rate中国储蓄率与消费者购买意愿

SavingaTopPriorityforChinese…ButWhy?UnderstandingthemotivationsbehindChina’shighsavingsrateOctober20102Copyright©2010TheNielsenCompany.SomeFacts:Forecastedtoclose2010atnearly50%ofGDP,China’snationalsavingsrateisoneofthehighestintheregionandsubstantiallyhigherthandevelopedeconomieslikethoseoftheUnitedStatesandtheUnitedKingdom.Despitethegreateconomicgrowthoverthepastdecade,thesavingsrateonlyincreased.OverviewChina’sconsistentlyhighsavingsratehasraisedafairamountofinternationalandacademicinterest.EconomictheorybasedonForwardLookingModelssuggestthatcountriesexperiencingstrongGDPgrowthshouldseeadropinsavingsrateaspeoplearebetterabletopredicttheirfutureincomes.China’ssavingsrate,ontheotherhand,hascontinuedtoremainhighdespiteitsremarkableGDPgrowth.ApopularexplanationisthatChina’slegendarysavingshabitisinfluencedbytheConfucianvaluesofthriftandfrugality.Butdoesthistheoryapplyinthepresentday?Nielsenseekstounderstandthestrengthofthishypothesisandexploresnon-culturalfactorswhichmayhavearoleinexplainingChina’shighsavingsrate.PHNZPKAUJPSLHKTWVNIDTHINKRSGMACH2010f2011f50403020100Exhibit1:Savingsasa%ofGDP:China,SigaporeandMalaysiathehighestSource:CEIC,HSBC3Copyright©2010TheNielsenCompany.Nationalsavingsisthesumofhousehold,corporateandgovernmentsavings(fiscalrevenue).Basedonthelimiteddataavailable,itisinterestingtonotethathouseholdsavingswasthelargestcomponentpriorto1999.Thereafter,corporatesavingscaughtupandcameonpar,andhasplayedanequallyimportantroleincontributingtoChina’shighsavingsrate,duemostlytobetterproductivityandefficiencyofprivateenterprisesinthepost-reformera.Householdsavingsontheotherhandshowedaslightdeclineinthemid-1990’sandhassincestabilizedataround16%ofGDP.(Exhibit3)19992000200120022003USUKChina605040300200420052006200720081020Exhibit2:GrossDomesticSavingsRate(%ofGDP)Source:WorldBank252015051019901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003HouseholdSavingsCorporateSavingsGovernmentSavingsExhibit3:ChinaSavingsRatebyComponents(%ofGDP)Source:WorldBankPaperno.41852onInvestmentandSavinginChinabyLouisKuijs,IonChinaSavings4Copyright©2010TheNielsenCompany.Evenrecognizingthesignificanceofcorporatesavings,thehigh-levelsofhouseholdsavings(seeexhibit4)warrantsfurtherattention.Nielsen’sConsumerConfidenceSurveyrevealsthatsavingssentimentcontinuestobestrongamongdifferentconsumergroups,eveninthepresentday(ruralareashavelesssurplushencereportlowerintention).China-2003U.S.-2002Japan-2002Korea-2002Mexico-200150403001020CorporateSavingsGovermentSavingsHouseholdSavingsExhibit4:GrossDomesticSavingsRate(%ofGDP)Source:WorldBankPaperno.41852onInvestmentandSavinginChinabyLouisKuijs,IonChinaSavings01020304050607080NationalTier1Tier2Tier3Tier4RuralAreas3030-3940-4950-5960+LowIncomeMidIncomeHighIncome7069434149536363636366466356Exhibit5:ThoseMentioningIntentiontoPutTheirSurplusinSavingsSource:NielsenCCISurvey20105Copyright©2010TheNielsenCompany.AnAgeStructurethatFavorsSavingsSincethelate1980’s,China’sdemographicshavefavoredtheyounger,workinggroup,definedbyeconomistsasPrimeSavers(20-49yrs).Typicallythisgroupdisplaysahigherpropensitytosaveasithastofinanceavarietyoflife-stageneeds:•Youngerhouseholds(20-34)needtobuildhomesandpurchasedurables•Olderpopulations(aroundmid-40s)needtosavefortheirchildrens’educationaswellasfortheirownretirements.Thesefactorsexplainthehighsavingsrateto2015,afterwhichtherateisexpectedtodropasthesegroupsgetolderandgraduatetobecomeNon-PrimeSavers(50+yrs).Withretirementsettingin,bothearningandsavingscapacitywilldropandthesehouseholdswillstartlivingofftheiraccumulatedfunds.CulturalFrugality–RememberingConfuciusMuchhasbeenwrittenaboutChina’slegendarysavingshabitbuiltupontheConfucianvaluesoffrugality,self-discipline,takingzhongzhongortheMiddleGround(low-key)andlivingwithinone’smeans.Amodestlifestyleandavoidanceofdebtwerenaturaloutcomesofthisvaluesystem,andofferedareadyexplanationofwhyChineseweresuchstrongsavers.SoWhyDoChineseHouseholdsSaveSoMuch?198519952005201520252035504030%010202045Exhibit6:PrimeSaver’s(20–49years)ShareinPopulationSource:PaperonDeterminantsofHouseholdSavingsbyMarcosChamonandEswarPrasad/IMFArmaniBurberryCerrutti1881DunhillGucciSalvatoreFaragamo100806002040OtherCitiesKeyCitiesExhibit7:LuxuryApparelRetailers–StoreLocationSharebyCities–2009Source:LiandFungResearchCentreChinaDistributionandTrading,Issue63,December20096Copyright©2010TheNielsenCompany.However,theargumentthatfrugallivingisa‘culturalconstant’weakensifwelookattheproliferationofluxurystorescateringtoChina’ssmallbutgrowingnouveauricheandyoungersegmentswillingtospurgeonluxurybrands.McKinsey’s2008WealthSurveyreported1.6millionhighnetworthindividualsinChinawithanannualincomeofRMB25,000+whoarewillingtospend.Thisfigureisexpectedtogrowtofourmillionby2015,rankingChinafourthgloballyasaluxurymarket.BostonConsulting’s“ComingofAge”studyreportedthatChinawilltake29%shareofthegloballuxurymarketby2015.Theincreasingappetiteforluxurybrandsofthenewlyaffluentandyoungerpopulationshaspromptedforeignluxuryretailerstoexpandtheirfootprinttocapturethisgrowingpoten