XXXX09BCGWinning in Emerging Market Citites新兴国家-消费

WinninginEmerging-MarketCitiesAGuidetotheWorld’sLargestGrowthOpportunityReportTheBostonConsultingGroup(BCG)isaglobalmanage-mentconsultingfirmandtheworld’sleadingadvisoronbusinessstrategy.Wepartnerwithclientsinallsectorsandregionstoidentifytheirhighest-valueopportunities,addresstheirmostcriticalchallenges,andtransformtheirbusinesses.Ourcustomizedapproachcombinesdeepinsightintothedynamicsofcompaniesandmarketswithclosecollaborationatalllevelsoftheclientorganization.Thisensuresthatourclientsachievesustainablecompet-itiveadvantage,buildmorecapableorganizations,andsecurelastingresults.Foundedin1963,BCGisaprivatecompanywith69officesin40countries.Formoreinfor-mation,pleasevisit’sLargestGrowthOpportunitybcg.comDavidJinDavidC.MichaelPaulFooJoséGuevaraIgnacioPeñaAndrewTratzSharadVermaSeptember2010©TheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.2010.Allrightsreserved.Forinformationorpermissiontoreprint,pleasecontactBCGat:E-mail:[e-mail]:[phone],attentionBCG/PermissionsMail:BCG/PermissionsTheBostonConsultingGroup,Inc.OneBeaconStreetBoston,MA02108USAWinninginEmerging-MarketCities3ContentsIntroduction4Emerging-MarketCities:TheNewBusinessImperative5ReachingMr.Yang(andaBillionOtherNewUrbanResidents)6TheRiseoftheCities8Emerging-Market-CitySegments8CreatingaPortfolioofTargetCitiesinEmergingMarkets12CapturingtheConsumerOpportunity13CategoriesofOpportunity14FiveImperativesforConsumerBusinesses15CapturingtheInfrastructureOpportunity18Housing18WaterandSanitation19Transportation19Electricity20HowtoTapIntotheInfrastructureOpportunity20IncubatorsofDynamicLocalCompetition21TheNewAgendaforEmerging-MarketGrowth22ForFurtherReading23NotetotheReader244TheBostonConsultingGroupThesinglelargestcommercialgrowthoppor-tunitygloballyinthedecadeaheadistheriseofcitiesinemergingmarkets.Andthemostpivotaldecisionsthatmanycompa-nieswillmakeinthenearfuturearethoseregardingtheircommitmenttowinninginthesecitiesandtheirstrategiesfordoingso.Yetmostglobalcompaniesarefailingtorecognizethisopportunity,itsmagnitude,andthehigh-stakesnatureofthechoicesconfrontingthem.Whentheyapproachtheemergingmarkets,mostcompaniesthinkofcountries,notcities.Andthosecitiesthatdospringtomindareafew“megacities,”ratherthanthelargenumberofother,smallercitiesthatpresenttherealopportunity.Mostcru-cially,somecompaniestendtoviewbusinessdecisionsrelatedtocitiestacticallyratherthanstrategically—if,in-deed,theyrecognizetheneedforsuchdecisionsatall.Thesecompaniesaremakingahugemistake.Isyourcompanyamongthem?Askyourselfjustafewsimplequestions:Howmanyemerging-marketcitiesdoesyourcompany◊servecurrently,andhowmanydoesitplantoserveby2020?Thereare717suchcitieswithpopulationsofmorethan500,000,andmostaregrowingatratesfarabovetheglobalaverage.Doesyourexecutiveteamunderstandthegrowthop-◊portunity?Emerging-marketcitieswillaccountfor30percentofglobalprivateconsumptionby2015,andprivateconsumptionisgrowingatarateof11percentperyear.Theinfrastructureinvestmentinthesecitiesisforecastat$30trillionto$40trillioncumulativelyoverthenext20years.Doesyourexecutiveteamknowwhichcurrentandup-◊and-comingcompetitorsaretakingthesemarketsseri-ouslyandwinning?Globalscaleinmanyindustrieswillbedeterminedbythosethatplaythesecitieswell.Howmanyemerging-marketcitieshasyourexecutive◊teamvisited?Mostexecutivesknowaboutthemega-cities,butthoseareyesterday’sgrowthstory.Doyouknowtheneedsandhabitsofcustomersinthecitiesthatwillmatterinthefuture?Understandingandwin-ninginthenewparadigmofthe“manycities”—whichmeansdeterminingwhichandhowmanyofthehun-dredsofsmallercitiestoenterandwhen—hasbe-comethenewimperative.Thisreportisoneresultofayear-longglobalresearchef-fortspanningkeyurbancentersofthedevelopingworld,ledbyourbusinessstrategistsineachlocation.Itisnotanacademictreatiseonurbanizationpolicyoraprimerforgovernments.Instead,itisacommerciallyfocusedwake-upcallforcompaniesunderpressuretogrow.Asbestwecantell,itisthefirsthandbookthatframestheemerging-marketgrowthopportunityasonebuiltuponcities,andthatquantifieswhatisatstakewhileout-liningasetofpracticalstepsforembarkingonapathtosuccess.Itsinsightsandrecommendationsrepresentafundamentallynewwayofdefiningandapproachingtheworld’slargestgrowthopportunity.Wehopethatitstirsdebate,reflection,andacceleratedactionwithinyouror-ganization.Welookforwardtoyourfeedbackandtoen-gagingwithyoudirectlyonthisvitallyimportantgrowthdriver.IntroductionWinninginEmerging-MarketCities5One-thirdoftheworld’spopulation—2.6billionpeople—liveincitiesthatarelocatedintheemergingmarkets.By2030,thenumberofemerging-marketurbandwellerswillincreasebyanother1.3bil-lion.(SeeExhibit1.)Incontrast,citiesindevelopedmar-ketswilladdonly100millionnewresidentsinthenext20years.Thismassivegrowthwillfundamentallychangethecom-petitivelandscapeinmanyways.Consumerdemandwillrapidlyincreaseasthemiddleclassinthesemarketsexpands,newinfrastructurewillberequiredascitiesgrow,andthosecompaniesthatarebestpositionedtocapturetheopportunitywilltapintolargerprofitpools,growfaster,anduseemerging-marketcitiesa