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15220074ChineseJournalofManagementScienceVol.15,No.2Apr.,2007:1003-207(2007)02-0134-071,2,3,4(11,710032;21G,100032;31,100084;41,100044)::;,,,:;;;;Logit:F714:A:2005-11-21;:2007-03-15:(70302001):(1970-),(),,,,:.1,,,,(Gijsbrechts1993)[1],,BlattbergWisniewski(1989)[2,3],,AllenbyRossi(1991)[4]Hardie(1994)[5],[1-7][8],Hardie(1993)[3]BronnenbergWathieu(1996)[9],,,,,,,,,,,2BlattbergWisniewski(1989),()U,U,,Allen2byRossi(1991),,,,;,,Hardie(1994)©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()Hardie1994Sethuraman1995SivakumarRaj1997Raj,SrinivasanDoyle199919LemonNowlis2002,,,:Hla:,,Hlb:,,Hlc:,,,BronnenbergWathieu(1996),-Hardie(1993):,,,,,,,,,,,:H2a:,,H2b:,,H2c:,,3,LemonNowlis(2002)NowlisSimonson(1996),,(Yoo,DonthuLee,2000);,,,355312:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,20%,20%,20%Chen,MonroeLuo(1998),,,,,,(10080,20),2180588,,,4,,(Macfadden,1986)2000Macfadden,logit(MultinomialLogitModel,MNL),,,(,2002;,2004;,2003;,2003)4.1MNLMNL:iCi={B1,B2,BM},B1,B2,BMk:uk=k+k(1),k,kik,MNL:,,,ikpk=P{ukuj,jCi}(2)MNL:ikk(doubleexponentialGumbeltype),p(k)=e-e-,-.(3),ikMNL(Macfadden1974,GuadaguniLittle1983):pk=ek/JCieJ(4)412,,,,:yk(n)=1,nk:0,;(5)k:Vk=+1DH+2DL+3DHL(6):(1)(GuadagniLittle,1983;KumarkuraRusell,1993;LemonNowlis,2002),,0,;(2)DH;(3)DL;(4)DHL:=1,;0,;(7)DH=1,;0,(8)6312007©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=1,0,;(9)DHL=1,;0,;(10)4.3SivakumarRaj(1997)Mela,GuptaLehanmann(1997),,(choicemar2ketshare,),5SAS8.2MNL,2,3,4MNL,,0,GuadagniLittle(1983),KamakuraRussell(1993)(AMI),(BrandValueIndex)4,IBM,2IBM73.70%26.30%79.10%20.90%46.90%53.10%55.00%45.00%60.40%39.60%31.60%68.40%84.60%15.40%90.50%9.50%65.90%34.10%70.50%29.50%78.90%21.10%50.30%49.70%5.13,18.7%;IBM10.9%,4,,5F,,t5,(),IBM20%,,3.20%,IBM,H2a,H1a3,18.70%;11.40%20%,,0.2%4,5t,,7312:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.***0.1920.900***0.2150.784***0.1760.832***0.1930.924***0.2130.646***0.1750.0.0.1.031***0.1661.331***0.181-0.12610.1460.0.0.:***:p0.015FF=1.008F=0.984F=1.000p=0.459p=0.576p=0.499t=14.149t=1.954t=13.532tp0.001p=0.026p0.0015.2,,,;,,,,,,;,,,,(Bell,1999;Narasimhan,1996)Tellis(1988)Bijmolt(2005)(2002),(2005)22,,,,,,,;,,,,8312007©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1),,,,,,,,,(2),,,,,,20038,20036,,()7,;,93%,,,,,,200464%200566%,2006,,,,,:[1]GijsbrechtsEls.PriceandPricingResearchinConsumerMarketing:SomeRecentDevelopment[J].Intern.J.ofResearchinMarketing,1993,10:115.[2]BlattbergRobertC.A..TheoreticalandEmpiricalEval2uationofPriceDealsforConsumerNondurables[J].JournalofMarketing(pre-1986),Winter1981,45,00001:116.[3]Blattberg.RobertC.andKennethJ.Wisniewski.Priced2InducedPatternsofCompetition[J].MarketingScience,1989,8(4).[4]GregM.Allenby,PeterE.Rossi.QualityPerceptionsandAsymmetricSwitchingBetweenBrands[J].Market2ingScience(1986-1998),1991,10,3:185.[5]BruceG.S.Hardie,EricJ.Johnson,PeterS.Fader.ModelingLossAversionandReferenceDependenceEffectsonBrandChoice[J].MarketingScience(1986-1998),1993,12,4:378.[6]SethuramanRaj,SrinivasanV.,KimDoyle.AsymmetricandNeighborhoodCross-PriceEffects:SomeEmpiricalGeneralizations[J].MarketingScience,1999,18,1:23.[7]K.Sivakumar,S.P.Raj.QualityTierCmpetition:HowPriceChangeInfluencesBrandChoiceandCategoryChoice[J].JournalofMarketing,1997,61(3).[8]KatherineN.Lemon,StephenM.Nowlis.DevelopingSynergiesbetweenPromotionsandBrandsinDifferentPrice2QualityTier[J].JournalofMarketingResearch,2002,39,2:171.[9]BartJ.Bronnenberg,LucWathieu.AsymmetricPromo29312:©1994-2007ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1986-1998),1996,15,4:379.[10]BoongheeYoo,NaveenDonthu,SunghoLee.Anexami2nationofselectedmarketingmixelementsandbrandequity[J].AcademyofMarketingScience.Journa,Spring2000,28,2:195.[11]DanielMcFadden.TheChoiceTheoryApproachtoMarketRresearch[J].MarketingScience,1986,5,4:275.[12]DavidRBell,JeongwenChiang,VPadmanabhan.TheDecompositionofPromotionalResponse:AnEmpiricalGeneralization[J].MarketingScience,1999,18,4:50.[13]GregMAllenby,PeterERossi.QualityPerceptionsandAsymmetricSwitchingBetweenBrands[J].Mar2ketingScience(1986-1998).1991,10,31:85.[14]GuadagniPeterM.,LittleJohnD.C.ALogitModelofBrandChoiceCalibratedonScannerData.MarketingScience,1983,2(3).[15]NowlisStephenM.andItamaeSimonson.TheEffectofNewProductFeaturesonBrandChoice[J].JournalofMarkteingResearch,33(1):36-46.[16]Shih2FenS.Chen,KentB.Monroe,Yung2ChienLou.TheEffectsofFramingPricePromotionMessagesonConsumersPerceptionsandPurchaseIntentions.Jour2nalofRetailing,74(3):353-372.[17]WagnerA.Kamakura,GaryJ.R