南京东路消费者的回游消费行为研究

9MULTISTOPSHOPPINGBEHAVIOROFCON-SUMERSONEASTNANJINGROADZHUWei;WANGDe;SAITOSaburoABSTRACT:TheMarkovChainmodelisintroducedtointegratethe“entranceshoppingbehavior”and“multistopshoppingbehavior”ofconsumersonEastNanjingRoad.Itisdemonstratedthatthetotalnum-berofvisitorsinthecommercialspacecanbeaccu-ratelyestimatedbyusingMarkovChain.Themultistopshoppingbehaviorisfittedintoanestedlogitmodelwithabi-levelselectionstructure,whichgetsasatisfactorygoodness-of-fitontheconsumersurveydata.Parametersofthemodelarediscussedforthebehavioralimplicationsandareconsistentwiththoseofthe“entrancebehaviormodel”.Atlast,theentrancemodel,themultistopmodelandMarkovChainmodelareintegratedtoestimatetheconsumerflowsundersomerealdevelopments,whichshowstheimportanceofshoplocationandthepotentialtousethemodelsformulti-purposecommercialspaceplanning.KEYWORDS:multistopshoppingbehavior;MarkovChainmodel;nestedlogitmodel;EastNanjingRoadPlanningStudiesVOL.30NO.2FEB.2006102006302CITYPLANNINGREVIEWFig.1ConceptualrepresentationofconsumerflowsTab.1O-Dtableofconsumerflows11Fig.2DistributionofconsumermultistopvisitsFig.3ConsumerflowsamongblocksFig.4TransitionprobabilitiesamongblocksPlanningStudiesVOL.30NO.2FEB.2006122006302CITYPLANNINGREVIEWTab.2TransitionprobabilitiesamongblocksFig.5MarkovChainmodelofconsumermovement13Fig.6Bi-levelchoicestructureofconsumermultistopbehaviorPlanningStudiesVOL.30NO.2FEB.2006142006302CITYPLANNINGREVIEWTab.3EstimationresultsoftheNLmodel15Fig.7Estimationofconsumervisitsbyintegratingtheentrance,multistopandMarkovChainmodelPlanningStudiesVOL.30NO.2FEB.2006162006302CITYPLANNINGREVIEWFig.8Estimationoftheconsumervisitsinblockswithan-chorstoresattheentrancestageFig.9EstimationofconsumervisitsinblockswithanchorstoresatthemultistopstageFig.10Simulationoftheconsumerflowsafterthedevelop-mentatGoldenTriangle17Fig.11SimulationoftheconsumerflowsassumingtheRafflesCitybuiltinblock16