设计消费者需要的年金产品（PPT38）(1)

DesigningannuityproductsforconsumersneedsPresentedbyMikeWadsworthPartner,[e-mail]2003AgendaOptionsforgeneratinglifetimeincomeConsumerneedsInvestingforlifeManagingsurvivalAnewmodelIdon'twanttoachieveimmortalitythroughmywork-IwanttoachieveitbynotdyingWoodyAllenPeoplewillsoonlivetwiceaslongastoday,andhavethepotentialtolivefor1200yearsJohnHarris,ScientistMemberofUKHumanGeneticsCommissionasreportedSundayTimes,25June2000Funeralfirmhitby29%profitfallNotenoughpeoplearedyingintheUS,accordingtoServiceCorporationInternational,theworld'slargestfuneralservicescompanyTimes,2October1999ScaleofopportunitiesPeopleover6505,000,00010,000,00015,000,00020,000,00025,000,00030,000,00035,000,00040,000,00045,000,000AustraliaFranceGermanySingaporeSpainUKUSA20002010Source:USBureauoftheCensusAnnuityversusbondyield0510152050556065707580InterestCapitalBondyieldIncometakenmonthlyinadvance;interestrate5%paAnnuityincomebrokendownintocapitalelementandthebalance(ieinterestelement)Optionsforretirementincome100%PensionerInvestmentGuaranteesPensionerSurvivalGuaranteesTraditionalAnnuityLumpSum?©WatsonWyattPartners20000%0%TraditionalannuitiesSomeimportantquestionsHowmuchdotheguaranteescost?Howvaluablearetheytocustomers?–earlyinretirement/laterinretirement?–accordingtootherassets?Howwilllifestylesandneedschangeinretirement?Willcustomerschangetheirmindsovertime?KeyissuesfordesignThePensionerChoice(investment)Flexibility(income)Protection(survival)Communication(tradeoffs)FailsafeAlifetimeassetallocationmodelTraditionalEitherlumpsumOrannuityRetireRetireOptimumreturn(equities?)Optimumreturn(equities?)CashBondsBonds©WatsonWyattPartners2000AlifetimeassetallocationmodelProposedOptimumreturn(equities?)Optimumreturn(equities?)BondsRetire©WatsonWyattPartners2000Effectofinvestmentgrowthonsupportableincome-males11.11.21.31.41.560657075808590EntryageIncomemultiple1%2%3%4%5%Baseincomesupportablecalculatedat5%.Incomemultiple=incomesupportableassumingextrainvestmentreturnresultingfromequityinvestmentof1,2,3,4or5%paaftercharges,dividedbybaseincome.Mortalityaspreviously©WatsonWyattPartners2000PlanningretirementincomeTheconsumerproblemis.....HowlongwillIlive?LifespanisadistributionnotanexpectationDistributionofdeathsRetirementatage600.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%5.0%6065707580859095100105110115120MaleFemaleMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners2000Distributionofdeathsbyagenow0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7580859095100105110115120MaleFemaleAge75now©WatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001DistributionofdeathsbyagenowAge90now0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%9095100105110115120MaleFemale©WatsonWyattPartners2000Mortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001Standarddeviationofdeaths,asaproportionoflifeexpectancy0%20%40%60%80%100%6065707580859095100AgeatoutsetMaleFemaleMortality:PMA92/PFA92Yearofuse2001©WatsonWyattPartners200002,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,0006065707580859095100105110115120AgeAnnualincome(£)7%pa0%paMethodofcalculationNon-annuitisedfundIncomeeachyeardefinedas:Fundvalue/annuityfactorAnnuityfactorcalculatedatassumedinvestmentreturnof0%or7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnachievedequalto7%pa(excludingexpenses)Investmentreturnassumed:(exclexpenses)Investmentreturnachieved:7%pa(exclexpenses)Mortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Initialfund£100,000Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000Progressionofincome:spreadingfundoverfuturelifeexpectationProgressionofincome-annuitisedfundversusnon-annuitisedfund01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,0006065707580859095100105110115120AgeAnnualincome(£)AnnuitisedNon-annuitisedMortality:PMA92Yearofuse2001Maleaged60atoutset©WatsonWyattPartners2000SupplierviewofmortalityguaranteesMortalityimprovingHowfast1%pa?2%pa?3%pa?Infuture?Scopetoreview?Guaranteesare(too)expensive?Mortalitydrift-uncertainfutureimprovements0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6065707580859095100PMA80PMA92Bothchartsshowexpecteddistributionofdeathsformaleaged60in1992,allowingforfutureimprovements.PMA92representsthemorerecentestimateCross-subsidyoperatesacrosseitherdistribution,andlongevityprotectionislargelyretainedevenifmortalityisreviewedDriftinanticipateddistributionallowingfornewerevidence©WatsonWyattPartners2000Excesssurvivors-PMA92comparedwithPMA800204060801006065707580859095100%survivingtostatedage0%+5%+10%+15%+20%+25%+30%+35%+40%%increaseinsurvivors%surviving:PMA80%surviving:PMA92%increaseinsurvivorsCosttoannuityproviderofnotreviewingmortalityrelatestopaymentsmadetothosesurvivorswhowerenotexpectedtolivesolong-theredzone©WatsonWyattPartners2000NewmodelInvestmentfund+InsuranceagainstsurvivalLifetimeincomemodel-benefitstatementUnitsUnitPriceValue££StartofYear10,00010.00100,000AnnuityPayments(975)(10,000)SurvivalBonus2953,000EffectofChangesinUnitPrice4,860EndofYear9,32010.5097,860TargetIncomeforNextYear10,000©WatsonWyattPartners2000Equivalentadditionalfundgrowthresultingfrommortalitycross-subsidy02468101214606570758085AgeEquivalentadditionalgrowth(%)MaleFemaleMortality:PMA92/PFA92CalendarYear