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DemandForecastingandMeasurementDemandMeasuringandforecastingmarketdemandisprobablythefirstmajortaskofamarketer.Neededinformationformarketopportunities:•Size•Growth•ProfitpotentialSalesforecastsarebasedonestimatesofdemand.Demand:MarketsWaystoclassifymarkets:•Potentialmarket:setofconsumerswhopossessasufficientlevelofinterestinaproductorservice.•Availablemarket:setofconsumerswhohaveinterest,income,andaccesstoaproductorservice.•Targetmarket:partofthequalifiedavailablemarketacompanydecidestopursue.•Penetratedmarket:setofconsumerswhoarebuyingthecompany’sproductorservice.Demand:MeasurementKeyTerms:Marketdemand:thetotalvolumethatwouldbeboughtbyadefinedcustomergroupinadefinedgeographicalareainadefinedtimeperiodinadefinedmarketingenvironmentunderadefinedmarketingprogram.Marketdemandisnotafixednumber,butafunctionofthestatedconditions.Marketforecast:marketdemandestimatewhenusingaspecifiedmarketingeffort.Marketpotential:thelimitapproachedbymarketdemandasmarketingeffortsapproachinfinityforagivenmarketingenvironment.Demand:MeasurementCompanydemandandSalesforecastsCompanydemandisthecompany’sestimatedshareofmarketdemandatalternativelevelsofcompanymarketingeffortinagiventimeperiod.Companysalesforecastistheexpectedlevelofcompanysalesbasedonachosenmarketingplanandanassumedmarketingenvironment.Companysalespotentialisthesalelimitapproachedbythecompanydemandascompanymarketingeffortincreaserelativetocompetitors.Demand:EstimatingCurrentDemandImportantAreasofFocus:TotalMarketPotential(TMP):themaximumnumberofsalesthatmightbeavailabletoallfirmsinanindustryduringagivenperiod,underagivenlevelofindustrymarketingeffort,andenvironmentalconditions.AreaMarketPotential(AMP):thedefinitionisthesameas“TotalMarketPotential”,exceptareaorregionisconsidered.Demand:EstimatingCurrentDemandMethodsUsedtocreateestimatesTMP:potentialnumberofbuyersxtheaveragequantitypurchasedbyabuyerxprice(mostcommonmethodused)AMP:•MarketBuild-UpMethod(B2B)•MultipleFactorIndexMethod(B2C)•BrandDevelopmentIndexDemand:EstimatingCurrentDemandMarketBuild-UpMethod:identifyallpotentialbuyersandestimatetheirpotentialpurchases.MultipleFactorIndexMethod:identifyallpotentialfactorsthatcouldcreatesales,assignaweightmeasuretoeach,thencreateafunction/model.Oneproblemisthatweightassignmentsduetotheirarbitrarynaturecouldcauseinaccuratetotalestimates.Demand:EstimatingCurrentDemandBrandDevelopmentIndex:index/comparisonofbrandsalestoproductcategorysalesApplication(twodifferentbeliefs)•LowertheBDI,thegreaterthemarketopportunity(duetolowpenetration)•HighertheBDI,thegreaterthemarketopportunity(duetoexistingcustomers,achancetoreinforcecustomerloyaltyispresentormoreeasilycaptureagreatermarketshare)Lastly,knowingactualindustrysalesisimportant:identifyingcompetitorsandestimatesoftheirsales.Thisinformationcanindicateactualmarketsize.Demand:EstimatingFutureDemandEstimatingfuturedemandiscalledforecasting,theartofanticipatingwhatbuyersarelikelytodounderagivensetofconditions.Themoreunstablethedemand,themorecriticalisforecastingaccuracyandthemoreelaboratetheforecastingmethodology.Demand:ForecastingMostcompaniesfollowathreestepprocesswhendevelopingasalesforecast.•Macroeconomicforecast•Industryforecast•CompanysalesforecastDemand:ForecastingMethodsforsalesforecasting:•Surveyofbuyers’intentions•Compositeofsalesforceopinions•Expertopinions•PastSalesanalysis•MarkettestmethodDemand:MarketEvolutionChangeistheonlyconstant.(byunknown)Newneeds,competitors,technology,channels,andotherfactorsalwaysaffectmarkets.Thissituationinturncausemarketstoevolve.Thefourstepprocessofmarketevolution:•Emergence•Growth•Maturity•Decline