第27届国际电池展销及研讨会-II

WorldwideMarketUpdateonNiMH,LiIon&PolymerBatteriesforPortable&thefutureApplicationsTHE27thINTERNATIONALBATTERYSEMINAR&EXHIBIT10:30-12:15Pre-SeminarTutorialIIMarch15,2010HideoTakeshita,VP/[e-mail],ProjectGeneralManager/[e-mail]Technology,Ltd./–FocusingonLIB–Copyright©2009-2010/IITPage21.LIBforportabledevicesCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage3•Applicationexpanding…Constantgrowthbeyond01CYITrecession&09CYfinancialcrisis–TechnologyandgrowingdriverofLIBisnotebookPCs–18650celldemandwillbeconstantlystronginthefutureincludingthatforPowerTools–Prismaticandpouchcelldemandwillincreaseabitforcellularanddigitalcameras–NewapplicationisstillcomingsuchasiPad•SamsungSDIwillbeNo.1asplanned,LGCwillfollowtobeNo.2–JPareoverwhelmedbyKorean’sproductionspeed,cellperformance&QCDfactors,weakerKoreanWonwasthefollowingwindforthem–ThoroughbenchmarkofJP,gettinghumanresourcesfromJP,andinvestmenttacticsarethemethods–JPkeepfightingwithKoreansbytheusageofnewmaterialsandtheintroductionofnon-portabledeviceapplication–Koreansaresmartenoughtopostponetheinvestmentin10CY,althoughJPmakefurtherexpansionoftheproductioncapacity•Stillbigroomfor18650cellcapacityenhancementandcostreduction–SibaseanodeproductsarecomingfromPanasonic&Sony，achieving800Wh/Lby4.0Ahcellin12CY–Latesttechnologyisrequiredalsofor2.2Ahcelltogetprofit,whichisabout1.7US$in10CY(only0.2US$/Wh)1-1GettingvariousapplicationsinadditiontoPC/cellular•Recordingthelargestvolumeshipmentin09Q3–NotebookPCmarketexceeds180Munitsin10CYbytheexpansionoflowpricesegment–GrowingdomainsareSmartphone,SingleLensdigitalcameras,E-books…–NomoreNiCdpoweredToolsaftertherecessionisover,butlead-acidbatteryreplacementinE-bikeisverydifficultCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage41-2NochoiceworkingtogetherwithKorean?•SDI&LGCsucceedtogetmoresharesinvolumeandprofit–Smartinvestmentandpricesetting–Supportedbycostcutandconfirmedcustomers•WhyareChinesenotstronginOEMmarket?–Qualityandcostlevelbymanualproduction(hand-made)arenotenough–TechnicalandqualitativegapfromJapanatmaterialsuppliersCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage51-3Is10CYinvestmentbyJPplayerssuccessful?•JPplayersarequiteaggressivetoapply18650cellbasepackforautomotive,bikeandESS–PanasonicLNOtype,SonyLFPtype,SanyoconventionalV&Etype–Cellspecificationisgeneral,andmodule/packisoptimizedforeachapplication–Mustmakecostcutasmodule/packincludingBMS&powerconditioningsystem–AvoidKorean’spenetrationbykeepinginternalgroupordomesticPV/housingmakersdemand,otherwisetheproductsareeasilyimitatedandthemarketisderivedbythemCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage62.LIBforautomotivesCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage7•HugemarketpromisedifcheapLIBisconstantlymanufactured–FollowingwindcontinuesfortheintroductionandpenetrationofHEV/PHEV/BEV–LIBisonlyonesolution,butthemarginissmallforbatteryandmaterialwithoutbigvolume•09-10CY,thepainsofchildbirth…the1stgen.LIB–LEJ,AESC,PEVEandJCSareallstrugglingtostartuptheprocesseventhoughthematerialandcellcompositionarequiteorthodox–OnlyLGCmakessmoothproductlaunchforHyyndaiandGMVolt,astheyutilizethesimilardesigntopouchcellforcellular–TakealookatLGC(productionspeed),AESC(materialcostcut)andPEVE(designapproach)•Positioninggamecontinues–CharacteristicofLIBsupplier/automotivebrandsrelationship…JP&China/US/EU–LIBsupplierwhichgetBEVrelatedbusinesswillbequitestrong•Chancesformaterialsupplierarethe1.5genlowcosttypeandthe2ndgenhighcapacitytype–Whatisthenextgenerationofmaterials?•Cathode:Li2MO3-LiMO2,Li2MSiO4…•Anode:Sibased•Nochangeonelectrolyte•Separator:basefilmorwovenplusceramiccoatingWhatisthefutureofthedevelopmentofbipolar/Nissan&Liair2-1Marketstructureisquitesimple•BEVmainplayersaretraditionalautomotivemanufacturers–BEVcannotdesignedbyonlyMotor,InverterandBattery–Bigcapitalbythebigcompanyisessentialbecausethearrangementofinfrastructureandthesupportbygovernmentareneeded•AESCandPEVEhaveadvantagebythestronggroupdemandCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage82-2EUautomakersarethemarketforindividualLIBsuppliers•JapaneseandChinesepreferestablishingJVofautomotiveandbatterymakers–ToyotaandHondahavenotstartedin-housedevelopmentofBEVLIB•AmericanselectthesupplierwhichisawardedbyDOEgrants•EUmakerswillseekthedomesticLIBproductioninthelongrun,butwillutilizeAsianhigh-tech&lowcostsuppliersPossiblerelationshipbetweenAutomotiveOEM/BatterysupplierCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage92-3WhatisKeyFactorofSuccess?Copyright©2009-2010/IITPage10•Effectiveinvestmentfortheprocessisrequired–Koreanshaveadvantageontheprocessspeed…–ProcessspeedforHEVandBEVcell(sec/Ah)isthesamelevel,howfastLGC’sPHEVcellproductionis!2-4Itispossiblethatthematerialsupplyisthelongtermbusiness•1.5genandthe2ndgenaredeveloped,buteverybodycannotmovefastuntiltheyhavestableproductionMaterialcompositionof1stgen.LIBCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage113.JPESS(EnergyStorageSystem)marketopportunityCopyright©2009-2010/IITPage12•1980’s–LoadLevelingpurposeESSforPowerStationusingfly-wheel,super-conductordeviceandrechargeablebatterieswasdevelopedbutinvain•2000’s–Accompaniedwiththeintroductionplanofwind