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Copyright©2004South-Western36FiveDebatesOverMacroeconomicPolicy宏观经济政策的五个争论问题Copyright©2004South-WesternFiveDebatesoverMacroeconomicPolicy1.Shouldmonetaryandfiscalpolicymakerstrytostabilizetheeconomy?2.Shouldmonetarypolicybemadebyruleratherthanbydiscretion?3.Shouldthecentralbankaimforzeroinflation?4.Shouldthegovernmentbalanceitsbudget?5.Shouldthetaxlawsbereformedtoencouragesaving?Copyright©2004South-Western宏观经济政策的五个争论问题1.货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？2.货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择?3.中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗?4.财政决策者应该减少政府债务吗？5.应该为了鼓励储蓄而修改税法吗?Copyright©2004South-Western1.Shouldmonetaryandfiscalpolicymakerstrytostabilizetheeconomy?货币与财政决策者应该努力稳定经济吗？Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Policymakersshouldtrytostabilizetheeconomy•Theeconomyisinherentlyunstable,andleftonitsownwillfluctuate.•Policycanmanageaggregatedemandinordertooffsetthisinherentinstabilityandreducetheseverityofeconomicfluctuations.Copyright©2004South-Western赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济•经济是本质上不稳定的，如果放任不管，经济就倾向于发生波动。•政策可以管理总需求，目的是抵消这种内在的不稳定，降低经济波动的严重性。Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Policymakersshouldtrytostabilizetheeconomy•Thereisnoreasonforsocietytosufferthroughtheboomsandbustsofthebusinesscycle.•Monetaryandfiscalpolicycanstabilizeaggregatedemandand,thereby,productionandemployment.Copyright©2004South-Western赞成：决策者应该努力稳定经济•没有理由使社会受到经济周期高涨与低落的折磨。•货币与财政政策可以稳定总需求，从而稳定生产和就业。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy•Monetarypolicyaffectstheeconomywithlongandunpredictablelagsbetweentheneedtoactandthetimethatittakesforthesepoliciestowork.•Manystudiesindicatethatchangesinmonetarypolicyhavelittleeffectonaggregatedemanduntilaboutsixmonthsafterthechangeismade.Copyright©2004South-Western反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济•在需要采取行动到货币政策能发挥作用之间，货币政策对经济的作用要有一个相当长而且不可预见的时滞。•许多研究表明，在作出货币政策变动的6个月之内，这种变动对总需求的影响很小。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy•Fiscalpolicyworkswithalagbecauseofthelongpoliticalprocessthatgovernschangesinspendingandtaxes.•Itcantakeyearstopropose,pass,andimplementamajorchangeinfiscalpolicy.Copyright©2004South-Western反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济•财政政策的作用有时滞，是因为政府改变支出与税收是一个漫长的政治过程。•提出、通过和实施一项重要的财政政策变动需要好几年的时间。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Policymakersshouldnottrytostabilizetheeconomy•Alltoooftenpolicymakerscaninadvertentlyexacerbateratherthanmitigatethemagnitudeofeconomicfluctuations.•Itmightbedesirableifpolicymakerscouldeliminatealleconomicfluctuations,butthisisnotarealisticgoal.Copyright©2004South-Western反对：决策者不应该努力稳定经济•决策者经常是无意中扩大了而不是缩小了经济波动的程度。•如果决策者可以消除所有经济波动，这样做是合意的。Copyright©2004South-Western2.Shouldmonetarypolicybemadebyruleratherthanbydiscretion?货币政策应该按规则还是相机抉择?Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule•Discretionarymonetarypolicycansufferfromincompetenceandabuseofpower.•Totheextentthatcentralbankersallythemselveswithpoliticians,discretionarypolicycanleadtoeconomicfluctuationsthatreflecttheelectoralcalendar—thepoliticalbusinesscycle.Copyright©2004South-Western赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定•相机抉择货币政策会受无能和滥用权利之苦。•在某种程度上，中央银行领导人与政治家结盟，相机抉择政策就会引起大选日期的经济波动——政治性商业周期。Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule•Theremaybeadiscrepancybetweenwhatpolicymakerssaytheywilldoandwhattheyactuallydo—calledtimeinconsistencyofpolicy.•Becausepolicymakersaresooftentimeinconsistent,peopleareskepticalwhencentralbankersannouncetheirintentionstoreducetherateofinflation.Copyright©2004South-Western赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定•也会存在决策者说他们要做什么和实际上做了什么之间的不一致性，这种不一致性被称为政策的时间不一致性。•由于决策者经常有这种时间不一致性，当中央银行领导人宣布他们打算降低通货膨胀时，人们往往表示怀疑。Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Monetarypolicyshouldbemadebyrule赞成：货币政策应该按规则制定•CommittingtheFedtoamoderateandsteadygrowthofthemoneysupplywouldlimitincompetence,abuseofpower,andtimeinconsistency.让美联储实行稳健的货币增长政策会限制无能、滥用权利和时间不一致性。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Monetarypolicyshouldnotbemadebyrule•Animportantadvantageofdiscretionarymonetarypolicyisitsflexibility.•Inflexiblepolicieswilllimittheabilityofpolicymakerstorespondtochangingeconomiccircumstances.Copyright©2004South-Western反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定•相机抉择货币政策的一个重要优点是灵活性。•不灵活的政策将限制决策者对变化着的经济环境作出反应的能力。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Monetarypolicyshouldnotbemadebyrule•Theallegedproblemswithdiscretionandabuseofpowerarelargelyhypothetical.•Also,theimportanceofthepoliticalbusinesscycleisfarfromclear.Copyright©2004South-Western反对：货币政策不应该根据规则制定•所谓的时间不一致性和滥用权利的问题主要是想象出来的。•而且，政治性商业周期的重要性也很不明显。Copyright©2004South-Western3.Shouldthecentralbankaimforzeroinflation?中央银行应该把零通货膨胀作为目标吗？Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Thecentralbankshouldaimforzeroinflation•Inflationconfersnobenefittosociety,butitimposesseveralrealcosts.•Shoeleathercosts•Menucosts•Increasedvariabilityofrelativeprices•Unintendedchangesintaxliabilities•Confusionandinconvenience•ArbitraryredistributionofwealthCopyright©2004South-Western赞成：中央银行应该以零通货膨胀作为目标•通货膨胀并没有给社会带来什么好处，但引起了一些实际成本。•皮鞋成本•菜单成本•相对价格变动性提高•税收负担不合意的变动•混乱与不方便•财富任意再分配Copyright©2004South-WesternPro:Thecentralbankshouldaimforzeroinflation•降低通货膨胀是一项暂时有成本而长期有好处的政策。•一旦反通货膨胀带来的衰退过去，零通货膨胀的好处就会持续到来。Copyright©2004South-WesternCon:Thecentralbankshouldnotaimforzeroinflation•Zeroinflationisprobablyunattainable,andtog