多灾种风险评估研究进展

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28120131JOURNALOFCATASTROPHOLOGYVol.28No.1Jan.2013*12122312451.1008752.—1008753.LS29JT4.5180605.210093。。。、、。X43A1000-811X201301-0126-080、1。。。。。21。2002502。JRC103。FEMANIBSGISHAZUS-MH、4。ESPON5-8。209。10。1121。12-14。15、、。20111612。。。*2012-07-102012-09-082012CB955404-B08008“”2008BAK50B071988-.E-mailmind2011@mail.bnu.edu.cn1979-、.E-mailxuwei@bnu.edu.cn1117。。1.11118-19。1。1//////。。。。。。。。。。、、。。1.2。20。212223。24。。。。。。2526、2216。27。22.1。、320。。。。、。、。2.2、。72128。2、、、。。、、15。2DRI34、、、Hotspots21352.5’×2.5’、、、、、、250、、、、ESPON5-827NUT-3、、、15JRC36-38NUT-3、、、、11、、21、161km×1km、、、、、、、1239、、、、、、15、、、、、、、、、、、、GIS23、、11、435Bíldudalur1m×1m、、40、、-41、22、、、Riskscape42、、、、、、、Riskscape8211。、。28。。。29。。、。。3031-33。。3。、、。。HV。。。HV。R=f∑Hi∑Vi。1HVi∑。2、5-8、3943-45。。。HV。R=∑fiHiVi。24、21、28-29、4046-47。3.1。。。。。1ESPONESPONESPON2729。Risk=Hazardpotential×Vulnerability。3HazardPotential、、、、、、、、、114。、、、、155、、、、。155。VulnerabilityDamagepotentialCopingcapacity、。GDP、92128GDP。45。Risk。5。。。。2、、/。。、、。、、、、、、、、、、。。。。。。。、、。。。3.2。。。。、copula。1、。、。。。IHazardassessment。1250。IIDevelopmentofanas-setinventory。IIIVulnerabilityassessmentandestimationofdirectlos-ses。IVSynthesis—。、、-。。。。03112《》16。、、、、、12。。10RI=∑ni=1ri×wi。4RIriiwin12。1km。。、。。。4。。1。。。。2。、、、。。3、、、。。。。。。。。。。。1.J.2005224-26.2MunichRe.Topicsannualreviewnaturalcatastrophes2002R.MunichGermany2002.3LavalleCDeRooABarredoJetal.TowardsanEuropeanin-tegratedmapofriskfromweatherdriveneventsacontributiontotheevaluationofterritorialcohesioninEuropeR.TechnicalEURReportsEUR2005.4FEMA.UsingHAZUS-MHforRiskAssessmentR.FederalE-mergencyManagementAgency2004.131285Schmidt-ThomEPKallioHGreivingSetal.DevelopmentofNaturalHazardmapsforEuropeanRegionsC//EU-MEDINForumonDisasterResearch“TheRoadtoHarmonisation”.Thes-saloniki26-27May2003.6FleischhauerM.RiskAssessmentandSpatialPlanninginFranceR.ARMONIAScientificColloquiumDortmund4April2005.7Schmidt-ThomEP.TheSpatialEffectsandManagementofNatu-ralandTechnologicalHazardsinEurope-ESPON1.3.1ExecutiveSummaryR.ESPON2006.8Schmidt-ThomEP.NaturalandtechnologicalhazardsandrisksaffectingthespatialdevelopmentofEuropeanregionsR.Geo-logicalSurveyofFinland2006.9.J.1999195466-475.10.M.2004.11.M.2005.12.J.200514642-46.13.M.2006.14WangJShiPYiXetal.TheregionalizationofurbannaturaldisastersinChinaJ.NaturalHazards2008442169-179.15.M.2008.16.M.2011.17.J.20091851-9.18.J.199111137-42.19.M.2007.20DiMauroBouchon.DefinitionofMulti-riskMapsatRegionalLevelasManagementToolExperience31GainedbyCivilPro-tectionAuthoritiesofPiemonteRegionEB/OC.2010-07-012012-02-07.http//conference.ing.unipi.it/vgr2006/archivio/Archivio/2006/Articoli/700196.pdf.21DilleyM.NaturaldisasterhotspotsaglobalriskanalysisM.WorldBankPublications2005.22LiYvandeLindtJW.Loss-basedformulationformultiplehaz-ardswithapplicationtoresidentialbuildingsJ.EngineeringStructures2012381123-133.23.GISJ.2011515627-631.24ShiPShuaiJChenWetal.Studyonlarge-scaledisasterriskassessmentandrisktransfermodelsJ.InternationalJournalofDisasterRiskScience2010121-8.25.———D.2011.26.J.2012233819-826.27KappesMSPapathoma-KohleMKeilerM.Assessingphysicalvulnerabilityformulti-hazardsusinganindicator-basedmethodol-ogyJ.AppliedGeography2012322577-590.28Mosquera-MachadoSDilleyM.AcomparisonofselectedglobaldisasterriskassessmentresultsJ.Naturalhazards2009483439-456.29.J.20102531-5.30GreivingSFleischhauerMLuckenkotterJ.AMethodologyforanintegratedriskassessmentofspatiallyrelevanthazardsJ.Journalofenvironmentalplanningandmanagement20064911-19.31AsproneDJalayerFProtaAetal.Proposalofaprobabilisticmodelformulti-hazardriskassessmentofstructuresinseismiczonessubjectedtoblastforthelimitstateofcollapseJ.Struc-turalSafety201032125-34.32LozoyaJPSardaRJimenezJA.Amethodologicalframeworkformulti-hazardriskassessmentinbeachesJ.EnvironmentalSciencePolicy20111461-12.33WangXLZhangJ.AnonlinearmodelforassessingmultipleprobabilisticrisksAcasestudyinSouthfive-islandofChangdaoNationalNatureReserveinChinaJ.Journalofenvironmentalmanagement20078541101-1108.34PellingMMaskrevARuizPetal.ReducingdisasterriskachallengefordevelopmentR.UNDPglobalreport.NewYorkUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgram.2004.35BellRGladeT.RiskAnalysisIVM.BostonWITPress2004197-206.36WoodMVetereArellanoAMushtaqF.ManagementofnaturalandtechnologicalhazardsinCentralandEasternEuropeancoun-triesPECOR.FifthFrameworkProgrammeofResearchandTechnologicalDevelopmentEUR20834EN2003.37JRC.JointResearchCentre-EuropeanCommissionANNUALREPORT2003R.EuropeanCommunities2004.38SalesJWoodM.RiskMappingofIndustrialHazardsinNewMemberStatesR.ItalyEuropeanCommissionJointRe-searchCentreInstitutefortheProtectionandSecurityoftheCit-izen2007.39SCEMDOAG.StateofSouthCarolinaHazardsAssessment2005R.SouthCarolinaEmergencyManagementDivisionOfficeoftheAdjutantGeneral2006.40GrunthalGThiekenAHSchwarzJetal.ComparativeriskassessmentsforthecityofCologne———stormsfloodsearth-quakesJ.NaturalHazards200638121-44.41.J.2012313353-360.42SchmidtJMatchamIReeseSetal.Quantitativemulti-riska-nalysisfornaturalhazardsaframeworkformulti-riskmodelingJ.NaturalHazards20115831169-1192.43ThierryPStieltjesLKouokamEetal.Multi-hazardrisk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