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Page1PassageOneThepredictabilityofourmortalityratesissomethingthathaslongpuzzledsocialscientists.Afterall,thereisnonaturalreasonwhy2,500peopleshouldaccidentallyshootthemselveseachyearorwhy7,000shoulddrownor55,000dieintheircars.Nooneestablishesaquotaforeachtypeofdeath.Itjusthappensthattheyfollowaconsistentpatternyearafteryear.AfewyearsagoaCanadianpsychologistnamedGeraldWildebecameinterestedinthisphenomenon.HenoticedthatmortalityratesforviolentandaccidentaldeathsthroughouttheWesternworldhaveremainedoddlystaticthroughoutthewholeofthecentury,despiteallthetechnologicaladvancesandincreasesinsafetystandardsthathavehappenedinthattime.Wildedevelopedanintriguingtheorycalled“riskhomeostasis”.Accordingtothistheory,peopleinstinctivelylivewithacertainlevelofrisk.Whensomethingismadesafer,peoplewillgetaroundthemeasureinsomewaytoreasserttheoriginallevelofdanger.If,forinstance,theyarerequiredtowearseatbelts,theywillfeelsaferandthuswilldrivealittlefasterandalittlemorerecklessly,therebystatisticallycancelingoutthebenefitsthattheseatbeltconfers.Otherstudieshaveshownthatwhereanintersectionismadesafer,theaccidentrateinvariablyfallstherebutrisestoacompensatinglevelelsewherealongthesamestretchofroad.Itappears,then,thatwehaveaninnateneedfordanger.Inallevents,itisbecomingclearerandclearertoscientiststhatthefactorsinfluencingourlifespanarefarmoresubtleandcomplexthanhadbeenpreviouslythought.Itnowappearsthatifyouwishtolivealonglife,itisn‟tsimplyamatterofadheringtocertainprecautions…eatingtherightfoods,notsmoking,drivingwithcare.Youmustalsohavetherightattitude.ScientistsattheDukeUniversityMedicalCentermadea15-yearstudyof500personspersonalitiesandfound,somewhattotheirsurprise,thatpeoplewithasuspiciousormistrustfulnaturedieprematurelyfarmoreoftenthanpeoplewithasunnydisposition.Lookingonthebrightside,itseems,canaddyearstoyourlifespan.11.Whatsocialscientistshavelongfeltpuzzledaboutiswhy.A)themortalityratecannotbepredictedB)thedeathtollremainedstableyearafteryearC)aquotaforeachtypeofdeathhasnotcomeintobeingD)peoplelosttheirliveseveryyearforthisorthatreason12.Inhisresearch,GeraldWildefindsthattechnologicaladvancesandincreasesinsafetystandards.A)havehelpedsolvetheproblemofsohighdeathrateB)haveoddlyaccountedformortalityratesinthepastcenturyC)havereducedmortalityratesforviolentandaccidentaldeathsD)haveachievednoeffectinbringingdownthenumberofdeaths13.Accordingtothetheoryof“riskhomeostasis”,sometrafficaccidentsresultfrom.A)ourinnatedesireforriskB)ourfastandrecklessdrivingC)ourignoranceofseatbeltbenefitsPage2D)ourinstinctiveinterestinspeeding14.Bysaying“…statisticallycancelingoutthebenefitsthattheseatbeltconfers”(Para.2),theauthormeans.A)wearingseatbeltsdoesnothaveanybenefitsfromthestatisticpointofviewB)deathsfromwearingseatbeltsarethesameasthosefromnotwearingthemC)deathsfromotherreasonscounterbalancethebenefitsofwearingseatbeltsD)wearingseatbeltsdoesnotnecessarilyreducedeathsfromtrafficaccidents15.Whichofthefollowingmaycontributetoalongerlifespan?A)ShowingadequatetrustinsteadofsuspicionofothersB)EatingthefoodlowinfatanddrivingwithgreatcareC)CultivatinganoptimisticpersonalityandneverlosingheartD)LookingonthebrightsideanddevelopingabalancedlevelofriskPassageTwoInCaliforniatheregulators,theutilitiesandthegovernorallwanttheFederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissiontocapspot(现货的)marketprices.TheCaliforniansclaimitwillreininoutrageousprices.Federalregulatorshaverefused.Thebattleison.GovernorGrayDavissays,“I‟mnothappywiththeFederalRegulatoryCommissionatall.They‟relivinginanivorytower.IftheirbillsweregoinguplikethepeopleinSanDiego,theywouldknowthatthisisarealproblemintherealworld.”Aspartofderegulation,pricecapswereremovedtoallowforafreemarket.Timingiseverything;naturalgaspriceshadalreadyskyrocketed.DemandwashighfromCalifornia‟sboomingeconomy.Nonewpowerplantshadbeenbuilthereintenyears,andpowerproducershadtherighttohikepricesalongwithdemand.Andhikethemtheydid.LorettaLynchofthePublicUtilitiesCommissionsays,”ThiscommissionandallofCaliforniawasbeatingdownthedooroffederalregulatorstosay„helpusimposereasonablepricecapstohelptokeepourmarketstable.”Federalregulatorsdidaskforlonger-termcontractsbetweenpowerproducersandtheutilitiestostabilizeprices.Thefederalcommission,unavailableforcommentonthisstory,releasedarecentstatementdefendingitspositionnottore-regulate.FederalEnergyRegulatoryCommissionDec.15,2000:“Thecommission?sintentionistoenablethemarketstocatchuptocurrentsupplyanddemandproblemsandnottoreintroducecommandandcontrolregulationthathashelpedtoproducethecurrentcrisis.”Someenergyexpertsbelievethat,withouttemporarypricecaps,thecrisiswillcontinue.SeverinBorensteinoftheU.C.EnergyInstitutesays,“SomefederalregulatorshaveablindcommitmenttomakingthemarketworkandIthinkpartoftheproblemistheyreallydon?tunderstandwhat?sgoingon.”GaryAckermanoftheWesternPowerTradingForumsays,“He‟sdeadwrongaboutthat.Thefederalregulatorsunderstandfarbetterthananyindividualstatethat,thoughitmightbepainfulanditPage3certainlyispainfulinCalifornia,pricecapsdon‟twork.Theyneverwork.”16.ThebattlebetweenCalif