基于马尔可夫排队模型的行程时间预测方法

:1671-5497(2004)04-0671-04:2004205219.:(2002BA404A22B).:(1971-),,.E2mail:[e-mail]:(1938-),,,.E2mail:[e-mail]1,2,2,2(1.,130022;2.,130022):(UTFGS),(),,:;(UTFGS);;;:U491.2:ATraveltimepredictionmethodbasedonMalcovqueuingmodelYANGZhihong1,YANGZhaosheng2,YUDexin2,CHENLin2(1.ChinaBaoluCompany,Changchun130022,China;2.CollegeofTransportation,JilinUniversity,Changchun130022,China)Abstract:AimingatthekeyproblemofsyntheticLinktraveltimepredictioninUrbanTrafficFlowGuidanceSystem(UTFGS).AVehiclelinktraveltimepredictionalgorithmbasedonMalcovQueuingmodelwaspresented.Withaquantityoftrafficmeasurementdata,somemodelparametersweresimplizedandconfirmed,thusgettingahighprecisionandalsomakingthemodelmorebecomeapplicable.Keywords:trafficengineering;UTFGS;Malcovqueuingmodel;queuingwaittime;real2timedynamictraveltime0(DTA),,,,[1,2],[2],(),344()Vol.34No.4200410JournalofJilinUniversity(EngineeringandTechnologyEdition)Oct.2004©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3],,,3[4,5],,,1:;,;,Poisson,;;,;;n,t0(s)i[(i-1)t0,it0](i=1,2,,24)3600/t02jj(0jn),tjT(r)j(t),jT(q)j(t),jT(c)j(t),jNjt(ti)j,[6]211,,jv,tj:T(r)j(t)=T(r)ij=(Lj-T(q)ij)/vi(1):Ljj;T(q)ijij;vii,;T(r)ijij212,,,NM/M/1//,,M/M/1//[7]:L(Q)j(t)=L(Q)ij=LQ=2(-)(2):T(q)j(t)=T(q)ij=TQ=(-)(3),:,;,;,,,:(1),,:276()34©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.=n/T(4)(2),,,(3),:n=akjvmvmkj-vfk0(5):a,a=(Q/c)g,Q,c,g;vf;kj;vm;k0[8],,,,,2,,,,,:=1.03+0.0111(6)(3)(6)T(q)ij213:T(c)j(t)=T(c)ij=LcgLvC(7):Lc;g;Lv;214ijTij:Tij=T(r)ij+T(q)ij+T(c)ij(8)ti,T(r)j(t)=T(r)ij,T(q)j=T(q)ij,T(c)j=T(c)ij,Tj=Tij,:Tj(t)=T(r)j(t)+T(q)j(t)+T(c)j(t)(9):T(r)j(t)T(q)j(t)T(c)j(t),tjTj(t),,,1Fig.1Relativeerror2barofqueuingtimecalculatedbymodelandsurveyingonthespot,,32003958001100393764,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1].[M].:,2003.YANGZhaosheng.ConceptofIntelligentTransportationSystems[M].Beijing:ChinaCommunicationPress,2003.[2].[M].:,2000.YANGZhaosheng.TheoreticsandModelsofUrbanTrafficFlowGuidanceSystem[M].Beijing:ChinaCommunicationPress,2000.[3],,.[J].,2001,18(1):51-53.XULiqun,YANGZhaosheng,GUANDeyong.Influenceoflinkflowandtrafficsignalcontrolontheforecastoftraveltime[J].JournalofHighwayandTransportationResearchandDevelopment,2001,18(1):51-53.[4],.[J].,2001,18(2):44-46.YANGZhaosheng,SUNXimei.Apracticalmethodofreal2timedynamiclinktraveltimeprediction[J].JournalofHighwayandTransportationResearchandDevelopment.2001,18(2):44-46.[5].[J].,2001,1(1):65-67.YANGZhaosheng.StudyonthesyntheticlinktraveltimepredictionmodelofkeytheoryofITS[J].JournalofTrafficandTransportationEngineering,2001,1(1):65-67.[6],1[J].:,2002,32(1):47-51.SUNXimei,YANGZhaosheng.Themodelofreal2timedynamictraveltimepredictionbetweenurbanpublictransportationstop[J].JournalofJilinUniversity(EngineeringandTechnologyEdition),2002,32(1):47-51.[7],.[M].:,2003.CHENLiangjun,ZHUQingtang.StochasticAnalysisandApplication[M].Beijing:HigherEducationPress,2003.[8],.[J].,2001,14(1):89-91.LIUCanqi,YANGPeikun.Diffusionmodelofdensityoftrafficplatoonandsignalcoordinatedcontrol[J].ChinaJournalofHighwayandTransport,2001,14(1):89-91.[9],.[J].,2001,1(4):67-70.ZHOUGuangwei,YANGXiaoguang.Micro2modelforvehiclebehaviorinurbanintersection[J].JournalofTrafficandTransportationEngineering,2001,1(4):67-70.()476()34©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.