投资分析与公司估值7-相对估值法

**大学管理学院选修课程公司估值CorporateValuation1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法相对估值法（RelativeValuation）相对定价法又称比率估价法，公司的价值通过参考可比公司的价值与某一变量，如收益、现金流、账面价值或收入等比率而得到。1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法P/E＝Price/EPS＝股价/每股税后利润PE/G＝PE/growthratio＝市盈率/增长率P/B＝Price/BVPS＝股价/每股净资产P/S＝Price/Sales＝股价/每股销售收入EV/EBITDA＝[MVE＋Debt]/EBITDA各种估值乘数相对估值模型的优缺点优点：简单高效、容易理解；补充作用。缺点：容易忽视其他关键性变量，如预期成长性、现金流等因素；基于可比公司确定比率数值的另一问题是它会将市场对可比公司定价的错误（高估或低估）引入估价之中。相对估价法也容易被误用和操纵。有偏见的分析人员往往会选择一组可比公司来印证他对公司价值的偏见。1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法第四章ApproachestoValuation相对定价法•相对估值法的假设前提是估值公司与完美可比公司的乘数应当是相等的。•有两种方法可以帮助分析人员在估价中正确确定所选用比率的数值•第一种方法是把所选用的比率同被估价公司的基本信息联系起来。基本信息包括收益和现金流的增长率、以及风险程度等。•第二个确定比率数值的方法是考察可比公司的比率，根据相关因素对可比公司的比率进行调整，从而得到被估价公司的比率值。相对估值模型的原理基本思想类比替代性假设——类似的资产应该有类似的交易价格NostrongtheoreticalfoundationsPractitionerslikethemultipleapproachbecauseitisquickandrelativelyeasyBut,recentempiricalresearchhasactuallyshownthatmultiplescanbeusedtopredictfuturestockreturns1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法相对估值模型的原理基本概念通过在市场上发现一个或者几个与被评估公司相似的可比公司，利用可比公司的市场乘数，分析、比较被评估公司与可比公司，选择合适的乘数，在此基础上，再通过修正、调整可比公司的市场价值，最后确定被评估公司的价值。乘数是价值与一些公司特定变量之间的比率，这些公司特定变量被称为价值驱动因素。1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法TobecomparableThefirmsaresimilarintermsofBusinessGrowthprospectsOperatingmarginsCashflowneedsButnotnecessarilysize1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationTheMultiplesApproachContinuedWhenfirmsarecomparable,wecanusethemultiplesapproachtodeterminethevalueofonefirmbasedonthevalueoftheotherV：ValueX：ValueDriverSubscriptindicateswhethertheamountpertainstothetargetorthecomparablefirm1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationTheMultiplesApproachContinuedXXVVTARGETCOMPCOMPTARGETInorderfortheformulatowork,theremustalwaysbeconsistencybetweenthemultipleandthevaluedriverThevaluedriverandthedenominatorofthemultiplemustbebasedonexactlythesamedefinitionBoththemultipleandthevaluedrivermustbeforthesameperiodorasofthesamedate1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationTheMultiplesApproachContinuedObservethevalueofthecomparablefirmandthevaluedriversofboththetargetandcomparablefirmsComputethecomparablefirm’sobservedmultipleApplyittothetargetfirm’sobservedvaluedriverExampleonpage367fromtherealestatebusinessComparabilityofofficespacesisessential1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesSometimes,multiplesofseeminglycomparableassetsarenotidenticalAslongasthemultiplesarereasonablyclose,youcanaveragethemExampleofexhibit16-1and16-21公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedAveragingexampleofcomparablerentals1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedSquareFeetRentRentperSquareFootSpace11,400$686$0.49Space21,500$840$0.56Space31,600$864$0.54Average$0.53Whenfirms’multiplesareverydifferentfromeachotherTrytounderstandwhichofthefirmsaretrulycomparableandwhicharenot,andthenlimittheanalysistothetrulycomparablefirmsExampleofexhibit16-31公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedImportanceofUsingComparableFirmsUnlessthecharacteristicsofthefirmsintheanalysisaresimilarenoughthatweexpectthemtohaveapproximatelythesamemultiple…1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinued…ouranalysiswillbeflawedFindingComparableCompaniesHowdoanalystsfindcomparablefirms?MatchthefirmsonindustryUsegoodjudgmentUsesecurityanalystreportsUsethelistofpeersintheproxystatements1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedWhattoDoWhenPerfectComparabilityisNotPossibleTherearethreeapproaches:AdjustingtheMultipleRedefiningtheMultipleAdjustingtheValueDriver1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedAdjustingtheMultipleIfweknowhowthemultiplechangesasthevariableinquestionchanges,wecanadjustthemultipleforthedifferenceinthevariableForexample,ifweknowhowthePEvarieswiththeearningsgrowthrate,wecanapplyaPEtoanyfirmbyadjustingforthedifferenceingrowthrate.(PEGratiowillbediscussedfurtherinChapter17)1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedRedefiningtheMultipleRedefinethemultipleusedsoitislesssensitivetothevariableonwhichwecannotmatchverywellForexample,PEissensitivetosomeaccountingmethoddifferences.Canuseprice/sales(PS)insteadwhentheaccountingmethodsareverydifferent1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinuedAdjustingtheValueDriverAdjustthedriveritselftoachievecomparabilitySometimesredefiningthemultiplemaystillnotsolvetheproblemPSmaybeaffectedbyrevenuerecognitionmethodanddifferencesinprofitmarginsRevisethecomparablefirm’searningstowhatitwouldhavebeenunderthetarget’saccountingmethodsbeforedeterminingthecomparablefirm’sPEratio1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuationUsingMultiplesContinued几种估值乘数介绍市盈率（PriceEarningsRatio,P/E）比较市盈率（动态市盈率）（PEGRatio）市净率（PricetoBookEquity,P/B）市销率（PricetoSalesRatio,P/S）公司价值乘数（EnterpriseValuetoEBITDA,EV/EBITDA）1公司估值CorporateValuation第七章RelativeValuation相对估值法市盈率估价法Mustm