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张建云1,2,王国庆1,2,贺瑞敏1,2,刘翠善1,2(11,210029;21,210029):,,3,:---,Mann-Kendall,,1950-2005,:1e,317%~616%;,10%,17%~22%;:;;;;:P:A:1001-6791(2009)02-0153-06:2008-06-25:(200801001);(XDS2008-01);(0701026C):(1957-),,,,,E-mail:jyzhang@mwr1gov1cn(IPCC)52007:6:100(1906-2005)0174e,21111~614e(1980-1999)[1],,,,50%,[2~4],,,2090,,[5,6],,1,32b~42bN104b~113bE,123416km,3612@104km2,520mm,,,,6~970%20220093ADVANCESINWATERSCIENCEVol120,No12Mar.,2009,,128417mm(E601),,3:(-)(-)(-),486,1950-2005Mann-Kendall,Mann-Kendall,,,,,[7~9]Gleick1987,[10][11],[12~17],,,3;,,,,;,,,,[11,12,17],,,4,,3,4,,Nash-SutcliffeR2Re[18],,,12~1;,3~46~9;,,15Fig11Annualrunoffandits5-yearmovingaverageprocessesatHuayuankouhydrometricstation2,39011m3,11950-20055,,6105m3;2080,,,80,90,,;,198545913m325815m3,45%170m3,,,1154201Table1StatisticalresultsofrecordeddecadalrunoffatkeyhydrometricstationsintheMiddleYRB/m3/%/m3/%/m3/%/m3/%1950-19592451611193211018124341023410851724151960-19692711023153361623194531828165051929171970-197923311612284154173581211538116-2121980-1989239108192761211737019511411175151990-199915617-281619811-271123716-321725619-34122000-200412319-431615419-431017211-511220810-4617219152711635218390111,¹,32090,,,21,,-40%º2070,,;,3;60,20%:¹---521181123713m3;3015%4617%2119%-,-1115%,20%,,º205060,,;»-,,-,2080,-,21,,,Mann-Kendall,221950-2005Table2Variationtrendtestforannualrunofffrom1950-2005ineachregionoftheMiddleYRBM-K/(m3#a-1)---511351222115-0190-2116-01722:¹3M-K01051196,--M-K510,-;º-,-2116m3/a,--,-019m3/a-0172m3/a3,--,,2070,3812%,[17,19,20]3,,1970,,1960-19693,3-1552,:2,-,2-Fig12MonthlyrecordedandsimulateddischargeintheregionfromHekouzhentoLongmen,374%,78%81%,,,519%,614%618%,,,:20501~215e,[1],,,:?30%?20%?10%;?1e?2e?3e,49,3,,333m3Table3ResponseofannualrunoffinthemiddleYRBtoclimatechange-3e-2e-1e0e1e2e3e-30%-5910-6518-7118-7713-8214-8618-9016-20%-3110-4013-4719-5419-6019-6613-7019-10%214-1011-2012-2912-3710-4315-49120421025141116010-916-1718-241910%85186519481633182110101921520%13610109198914711756134312321430%191151601413416112169419791566133:¹,,1e916m3,1e,1116m3º,,10%,2912m3;10%,3318m3»30%,3e,9016m33Fig13Relationshipbetweenchangesinrunoff,temperature,andprecipitationineachregionsoftheMiddleYellowRiverbasin3:¹,º;,10%,317%~22%;15620,1e,316%~616%»;,;,,,¼,-,-,-;,4(1),2070,,,,-,2116m3(2),,10%,17%~22%;1e,316%~616%;,(3),,,:[1]IPCC1IPCCFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)[R/OL]1[2],,.50[J].,2004,26(2):5-7.(WANGYun-zhang,KANGLing-ling,WANGGuo-qing.PrecipitationvariationhappenedintheupperreachesoftheYellowRiverandeffectsonitsrunoffinthelast50years[J].YellowRiver,2004,26(2):5-7.(inChinese))[3],.[J]1,2000,20(2):15-18.(BAOWe-imin,HUJin-hu.AnalysisonrunoffresourceanditsconceivablevariationtrendovertheupperreachesoftheYellowRiver[J].BulletinofSoilandWaterConser-vation,2000,20(2):15-18.(inChinese))[4],,,.[J]1,2000,11(3):277-283.(ZHANGGuo-sheng,LILin,SHIXing-he,etal.ClimaticchangesovertheupperreachesoftheYellowRiveranditseffectsonwaterresources[J].Ad-vancesinWaterScience,2000,11(3):277-283.(inChinese))[5],,.[M]1:,19981(ZHANGShen-li,LIZuo,ZHAOWen-lin1CausesandtendencyofsedimentandrunoffvariationinrichcoarsesiltareaofthemiddleYellowRiver[M].Zhengzhou:YellowRiverPress,19981(inChinese))[6],.[M]1:,20021(WANGGang,FANZao1StudyonvariationofsedimentandwaterintheYellowRiver[M]1Zhengzhou:YellowRiverPress,20021(inChinese))[7].[M]1:,19881(DINGJing,DengYuren1Stochastichydrology[M].Chengdu:ChengduU-niversityofScienceandTechnologyPress,19881(inChinese))[8],,,.50a[J]1,2007,18(2):230-2341(ZHANGJian-yun,ZHANGS-ilong,WANGJin-xing,etal1Variationtrendsofannualrunoffsovertherecent50yearsinthesixbigriversinChina[J]1AdvancesinWaterScience,2007,18(2):230-2341(inChinese))[9],,,.1956-2000[J]1,2007,18(1):29-331(CAOJian-ting,QINDa-he,LUOYong,etal1Variationofannualrunofffrom1956-2000inthesourceareaoftheYangtzeRiverbasin[J].AdvancesinWaterScience,2007,18(1):29-331(inChinese))[10]GLEICKPH1Thedevelopmentandtestingofawaterbalancemodelforclimateimpactassessment:modelingtheSacramentobasin[J]1WaterResources,1987,23(6):1049-1061.[11].[R]1:,20061(WANGGuo-qing.Keyissuesofclimate1572,:changeimpactonhydrologyandwaterresourcesinthemiddlereachesoftheYellowRiverbasin[D]1Nanjing:HohaiUniversity,20061(inChinese))[12],.[J]1,2000,11(6):387-3911(WANGGuo-qing,LIJian1Grid-basedassessmentmodelforclimatechangeimpactonwaterresourcesinthemiddlereachesoftheYellowRiverbasin[J].AdvancesinWaterScience,2000,11(6):387-3911(inChinese))[13]XIONGLH,GUOSL1Two-parameterwaterbalancemodelanditsapplication[J].JHydrol,1999,216:111-1231[14],,.[J]1,2006,17(2):186-1951(LIUJia-hong,WANGGuang-qian,LITie-jian1DigitalYellowRiverwatershedmodelanditsapplication[J].AdvancesinWaterScience2006,17(2):186-1951(inChinese))[15],.[J]1,2000,11(6):358-3611(HAOZhen-cun,SUFeng-ge1Grid-basedmonthlyXAJmodelanditsimprovement[J].AdvancesinWaterScience,2000,11(6):358-3611(inChinese))[16]BOUGHTONWC1AnAustralianwaterbalancemodelforsemiaridwatersheds[J].JourSoilandWaterCons,1995,50(5):454-4571[17],.[M]1:,20071(ZHANGJian-yun,WANGGuo-qing1I