41民主化与复兴伊斯兰_三十年西亚阿拉伯国家的政治发展_钱雪梅

56()20101*:(:100871)**22,12,:民主化与复兴伊斯兰)))三十年西亚阿拉伯国家的政治发展钱雪梅在过去30年间,西亚阿拉伯世界的政治变迁大体经历了石油繁荣与政治动荡,对民主化改革的尝试,以及穆斯林世界对全球化回应的三个阶段自1990年代以来,西亚阿拉伯国家所进行自由化和民主化改革成效不明显,威权主义政体迄今依然居于主导地位与此同时,伊斯兰复兴力量迅速增长,连同其中激进和极端主义一道,已经并将继续积极参与国家地区乃至世界政治秩序的变革或塑造西亚阿拉伯国家的政治发展道路是人类社会发展道路多样性的一个重要表现世界政治政治发展西亚阿拉伯国家民主化伊斯兰复兴30,(intifadah),,30,,30,103,,,,12,,,,,/0(Arabism)(,ArabLeague),/0,,/0,,14,#,,,,,,,,,3000,¹20,(Najd,),(PDRY),;,,,30,(ArabUnity),,19908,/01045国际政治研究62010年第1期¹FredHalliday,TheMiddleEastinInternationalRelations,NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,2005,p.77.1960/0,/01980,¹1990,,;,:(traditionalauthoritarianism)(bureaucraticauthoritarianism),,:(1)(),,,20;(2),;;(3),(),,:(1),(),();(2);(3)1960,º,,,,:,,,,/0/0;,,;301970,,1970,105民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹ºRoyR.Anderson,RobertF.Seibert,JonG.Wagner,PoliticsandChangesintheMiddleEast,NewJersey,Prentice-Hal,lInc,1998,p.128.OliverSchlumberger,/TransitionintheArabWorld:GuidelinesforComparison0,EUIWorkingPapers(MediterraneanProgrammeSeries),RSCNo.2002/22,pp.7-8.,1980¹:,,;,,,/0,1990,,,,,,,,,,,(BapathParty),/0,(7/7),º,15,1065国际政治研究62010年第1期¹ºOliverSchlumberger,/TransitionintheArabWorld:GuidelinesforComparison0,p.10.1999/2000)7,,/0,,,/,30,/,30::(1970)1980),/0:(1),,,;(2),:;;,;(3),:,),,(GCC)(),(sel-fdetermination)1960,,,,,19701973,,(OPEC),,,,,19701980,,(),,/01970,,10,107民主化与复兴伊斯兰,/0,,519906,1988430,640,1340015770,/0,,,,,,1990,()1970)1980,:,,,,;1967,1973,19789,19829,12/0,,(PLO),19852242,,1967,,:1981,,,;1982;1985,1987127,(intifa-dah),,,,,,1980,1085国际政治研究62010年第1期,,,,,,/,,1980:,¹,,,,1982,/0,,;,,,,,1975413,,º,19826,,,:,,,,,/0,,1980,,,:,()1978)1979,109民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹º19895,1990,,1980,/0,,,:,,/0,;,,,,,,/0/0,,,¹:,8%4%,,,,:(1),,/0,,,,,,,(2)198112,73,,/0,º1981,(GCC),,,,,,1105国际政治研究62010年第1期¹º1980,:70%,60%,24%,18%,16%,8%,4%JamesBil,l/ResurgentIslaminthePersianGul,f0ForeignAffairs,Vo.l63,No.1,Fall1984,p.120.,RoyR.Anderson,RobertF.Seibert,JonG.Wagner,PoliticsandChangesintheMiddleEast,p.106.,,/,,200190¹,1980922,,:,/0;,,/0/0,,,;,,,/,,,,0º8,19827,,1988820,600,,,,,199082,,1991,:(1990),,,198719891991,,:(1),,()»,,,(2),111民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹º»FredHalliday,TheMiddleEastinInternationalRelations,p.123.JerroldD.Green,/Review:AreArabPoliticsStillArab?0WorldPolitics,Vo.l38,No.4,July1986,p.623.19917,10,1994,2,,;,,(3),,,,()1987,198811,,242338,,19911030,,,1990:,,,5656,1996120,,88,,,,/0,;,,,;,¹20009,,,1990,,1125国际政治研究62010年第1期¹20091028,,()1980,,,,,,,:,1990,,,,,1990,2005,,,,,,,,/0,/0¹1980,,,,,,,,,,/0,,/()0,,;,,1990,1992113民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹OliverSchlumberger,/TransitionintheArabWorld:GuidelinesforComparison,0p.14.3(Majlisa-lShura),(an-nizama-lasasi),/,0,,,,,1995,1995)1996,,,1990,,,,,/0,,,,1990,,,:/,,0,/0,,/(de-liberalization),0¹200256/0,/02003/,0º,,/,,0,/,0,1990/0(non-democratictransitions):/,,0»2004156(ComparativePolitics)200551145国际政治研究62010年第1期¹º»OliverSchlumberger,/TransitionintheArabWorld:GuidelinesforComparison,0,pp.12-13.UNDP:ArabHumanDevelopmentReport2002,NewYork:UNDP,2002,Chap.7.UNDP:ArabHumanDevelopmentReport2003,NewYork:UNDP,2003,p.20.UNDP:ArabHumanDevelopmentReport2002,NewYork:UNDP,2002,chap.7.UNDP:ArabHumanDevelopmentReport2003,NewYork:UNDP,2003,pp.12,21.62009,56,,/0;,56,/0,¹,?1990/0,,,:(1)#,,:,(2)#,,(3),/0/0,/0,,,,,/0,,,,,1991,,,/0,,,,,2006,,115民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹UNDP:ArabHumanDevelopmentReport2009,NewYork:UNDP,2009,pp.211-215.,20,2006,86%/,0,90%/0,¹,/,,-1-2-1(2006),86%N=574086%N=114383%N=127083%N=130092%N=127788%N=75090%N=574093%N=114388%N=127081%N=130096%N=127793%N=750:AmaneyJamalandMarkTessler,/TheDemocracyBarometers:AttitudesintheArabWorld,0JournalofDemocracy,Vo.l19,No.1,Jan.2008,p.98.-2(2006)52%59%71%45%50%23%56%49%78%45%49%23%83%77%91%79%81%88%31%38%41%38%10%28%33%36%42%43%12%33%62%60%50%61%67%79%61%58%59%59%81%62%:AmaneyJamalandMarkTessler,/TheDemocracyBarometers:AttitudesintheArabWorld,0JournalofDemocracy,Vo.l19,No.1,Jan.2008,p.100.()1990,,1165国际政治研究62010年第1期¹AmaneyJamalandMarkTessler,/TheDemocracyBarometers:AttitudesintheArabWorld,0JournalofDemocracy,Vo.l19,No.1,Jan.2008,p.104.:(1),,,,,(2),,,,,,,,:,,,,/0,,,1990,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,/,:(1990)1990,,/,/117民主化与复兴伊斯兰0(discursivetradition),,,,,,;,,,,,,,/(),:(1)(7),/0,(umma)¹(2),,;/,/,,,(Ulama,)()7,/0/0/0,,;/0,/0;,,:º,(Islamicmodernism):1185国际政治研究62010年第1期¹º/0,:5:6,5620084/(fundamentalist)0,,/0,,¹,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),/0,/0//0,,º,19,:,»,,(M.Weber)/0,,,/0,119民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹º»MuhammadQasimZaman,TheUlamainContemporaryIslam:CustodiansofChange,Karach:iOxfordU-niversityPress,2002,p.7.,(secularism),(),,,,,,,,(56),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,/0(Islamist),/0,,/0,,,/0,1400()/0,;,,#,,¹20#(SayyidQutb,1906)1966),/,,(socialjustice)0º19401205国际政治研究62010年第1期¹ºBruceB.Lawrence,ShatteringtheMyth:IslamBeyondViolence,Princeton:PrincetonUniversityPress,1998.ShahroughAkhav,i/TheDialecticinContemporaryEgyptianSocialThought,0InternationalJournalofMiddleEastStudies,Vo.l29,No.3,Aug.,1997,pp.377,380.,,(MuhammadpAbida-lJabir,i1936))(HasanHanaf,i1935)),),,(ShukriMustafa,1942)1978),56,¹,,,,,#,,/0:,,,,;,,,,,,,,;,,(GeorgeTarabishi),2000,,,,,/,,,,,,,,,1990121民主化与复兴伊斯兰¹IssaJ.Boullata,TrendsandIssue