美国注册管理会计师CMAP2_S10

Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)1MODULE34TAXES:TRANSACTIONSINPROPERTYS10:InvestmentDecisionsII&EthicsInstructor:HelenCopyright高才国际教育集团P2–FinancialDecisionMakingCopyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)2InvestmentDecisions(II)&EthicsS10A.ComprehensiveExamplesofInvestmentDecisionsB.RiskAnalysisandRealOptionsinCapitalInvestmentC.CorporateValuationMethodsD.EthicsandLegislationCopyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)3A.ComprehensiveExamples(pleaserefertothehandout)Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)4B.RiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestmentCopyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)5BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment1.RiskAnalysisa)IntroductionItattemptstomeasurethelikelihoodofthevariabilityoffuturereturnsfromtheproposedinvestment.Approachesfrequentlyusedtoassessrisk:①Informalmethod②Risk-adjusteddiscountrate③Certaintyequivalentadjustments④Simulationanalysis⑤Sensitivityanalysis⑥MonteCarlotechnique⑦Thecapitalassetpricingmodel(CAPM)Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)6BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment1.RiskAnalysisb)InformalmethodNPVsarecalculatedatthefirm’sdesiredrateofreturn,andthepossibleprojectsareindividuallyreviewed.IftheNPVsarerelativelyclosefortwomutuallyexclusiveprojects,theapparentlylessriskprojectischosen.c)Risk-adjusteddiscountratesItadjuststherateofreturnupwardastheinvestmentbecomesriskier.Bydoingso,theexpectedflowfromtheinvestmentmustberelativelylargerortheincreaseddiscountratewillgenerateanegativeNPV,andtheproposedacquisitioninvestmentwouldberejected.Thistechniquehasmuchintuitivevalue.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)7BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment1.RiskAnalysisd)CertaintyequivalentadjustmentsThistechniqueisdirectlydrawnfromtheconceptofutilitytheory.Itforcesthedecisionmakertospecifyatwhatpointthefirmisindifferenttothechoicebetweenacertainsumofmoneyandtheexpectedvalueofariskysum.Thistechniqueisnotfrequentlyusedbecausedecisionmakersarenotfamiliarwiththeconcept.e)SimulationanalysisItrepresentsarefinementofstandardprofitabilitytheory.Thecomputergeneratesmanyexamplesofresultsbaseduponvariousassumptions.Projectsimulationisfrequentlyexpensive.①Unlessaprojectisexceptionallylargeandexpensive,full-scalesimulationisusuallynotworthwhile.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)8BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment1.RiskAnalysisf)SensitivityanalysisForecastsofmanycalculatedNPVsundervariousassumptionsarecomparedtoseehowsensitiveNPVistochangingconditions.Changingorrelaxingtheassumptionsaboutacertainvariable(orgroupofvariables)maydrasticallyaltertheNPV.Thus,theassetmayappeartobemuchriskierthanwasoriginallypredicted.g)MonteCarlotechniqueItisoftenusedinsimulationtogeneratetheindividualvaluesforarandomvariable.Theperformanceofaquantitativemodelunderuncertaintymaybeinvestigatedbyrandomlyselectingvaluesforeachofthevariablesinthemodelbasedontheprobabilitydistributionofeachvariable.Thencalculatethevalueofthesolution.Ifthisprocessisperformedalargenumberoftimes,thedistributionofresultsfromthemodelwillbeobtained.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)9BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment1.RiskAnalysish)Thecapitalassetpricingmodel(CAPM)Thismethodisderivedfromtheuseofportfoliotheory.Itassumesallassetsareheldinaportfolio.①Someofthisvariabilityiscausedbymovementsinthemarketasawhole,andsomeisspecifictoeachfirm.Eachassethasvariabilityinitsreturns.Inaportfolio,eachsecurity’sspecificvariabilityiseliminatedthroughdiversification,andtheonlyrelevantriskisthemarketcomponent.Themoresensitiveanasset’srateofreturnistochangesinthemarket’srateofreturn,theriskiertheasset.Note:formoredetailsofCAPM,seeitem10.inStudyUnit4.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)10BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment2.Real(ManagerialorStrategic)Optionsa)IntroductionThoseoptionsreducetheriskofaninvestmentproject.Itistheflexibilityto①Affecttheamountsandriskofaninvestmentproject’scashflows;②Determineitsduration;③Postponeitsimplementation.Itisordinarilypartofamajorprojectandinvolvesreal,notfinancial,assets.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)11BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment2.Real(ManagerialorStrategic)Optionsb)ValueofarealoptionItisthedifferencebetweentheproject’sNPVwithouttheoptionanditsNPVwiththeoption.Thegreatertheavailabilityofrealoptionsandthegreatervariabilityofpotentialcashflows,thegreatertheworthoftheproject.Valueofarealoption=NPVwiththeoption–NPVwithouttheoptionTrueNPVDecisiontreeanalysiswithrecognitionofprobabilitiesandoutcomesaswellassimulations,areusedinconjunctionwithdiscountedcashflowmethods.Copyright高才国际教育集团S10:InvestmentDecisionsII&Ethics(byHelen)12BRiskAnalysis&RealOptionsinCapitalInvestment2.Real(ManagerialorStrategic)Optionsc)TypesofrealoptionsAbandonmentofaproject①Itentailssellingitsassetsoremployingtheminanalternativeprojec