气候变化损害东南亚农业EconomicdamagefromclimatechangewillhitSoutheastAsiaharderthanotherregionsandseriouslyjeopardizeproductionofrice,theworld'smostimportantfoodcrop,accordingtoareportbytheAsianDevelopmentBank.Thereport,releasedMondayinBangkok,foundthatthetotalcostoflostagriculturalproductionandothernegativeimpactsfromclimatechangewouldbeequivalenttoasmuchas6.7%ofgrossdomesticproductinmajorSoutheastAsiancountriesbytheendofthiscentury,morethandoublethe2.6%lossestimatedfortheworldasawhole.Italsofoundthatriceyieldswoulddeclinebyasmuchas34%inIndonesiaand75%inthePhilippines,whileThailandandVietnam,amongtheworld'sbiggestexportersofthefood,wouldalsoexperiencedeclines.SoutheastAsia'willhavetodosomething'tooffsetthoselosses,includingmakingnewinvestmentstomaintainagriculturalproduction,saysJuzhongZhuang,aneconomistattheADB.ThevulnerabilityofSoutheastAsiastemslargelyfromitsgeography,whichincludesthevastarchipelagoofIndonesiaandotherlow-lyingnationssuchasThailandandVietnamwithlongcoastlines.Some80%oftheregion'spopulationandmuchofitseconomicactivityarewithin100kilometersofthecoast,theADBsaid.SoutheastAsia'seconomyalsoreliesheavilyonagricultureandforestry,bothofwhichmaybeaffectedsignificantlybychangingweatherpatterns.[来源:学#科#网]EconomistsandscientistsarestilldebatinghowemissionswillaffectclimateinAsia,thoughgenerallytheyagreethatweatherpatternsshouldbecomemorevolatile.TheADB,foritspart,saiditbelievesThailand,VietnamandIndonesiawillexperiencedrierweatheroverthenextseveraldecades,withthatpatternpossiblyreversinglaterinthecentury.AnnualmeantemperaturesinthosecountriesandthePhilippinescouldrisebyasmuchas4.8degreesCelsiusby2100comparedwith1990levels,whilesealevelscouldincreaseby70centimeters.[来源:Z§xx§k.Com]Thosechanges,especiallythehighertemperaturesandarisingincidenceofstorms,couldcombinetocutriceyieldsandotherwisedamagecrops,theADBsaid.[来源:Zxxk.Com]Indebatesonglobalclimatechange,SoutheastAsiahastraditionallyreceivedlessscrutinythanotherareasbecauseitremainsarelativelysmallcontributortogreenhouse-gasemissions,accountingforabout12%oftheworld'stotal.Buttheregion'sroleasakeysupplierofriceandotheragriculturalcommoditiesmeansanynegativeimpactonfarmingcouldhavebigrippleeffects,drivingfoodpriceshigher.Indeed,theADBreportisonlythelatestinaseriesofpapersarguingthatclimatechangesrelatedtoemissionswillreduceworldfoodproduction.TheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNationshaswarnedofincreasedriskofcropfailuresfromfloodsandotherweatherchanges,aswellastheemergenceofnewpestsanddiseasesthatonlyflourishatspecifictemperaturesandhumidity.[来源:学,科,网]SomeagriculturalexpertsbelieveSoutheastAsiastillhasroomtoexpandproductionofriceandothercrops,especiallyinpartsofCambodiaandLaosthathavetraditionallyhadlowyields,butcouldbeliftedbymoreinvestmentinirrigationandbetterseedvarieties.Ricepriceshavefallendramaticallythisyearafterspikingin2008,inpartbecausesomecountries,includingIndonesia,alreadyhaveboostedproduction.[来源:Z§xx§k.Com]Butmanyeconomistsbelievethosegainswillbehardtosustaininthelongrunwithoutbillionsofdollarsinnewspendingonfarminginfrastructure,andmanyfearanewsurgeinfoodpricescouldoccuroncetheworldeconomyrecoversfromitscurrentrecessionandconsumerdemandaccelerates.SmithDharmasaroja,aThaimeteorologistandclimate-changeexpert,saidricefarmersmightbeabletomitigatesomedamagefromweatherchangesbyimprovingwaterstoragetocapturemorerainduringwetseasons.Buttherewillstill'definitely'beadecreaseinriceproductionassummersbecomehotter,hesaid.[来源:学科网ZXXK]