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Imperfectinformation,dividendpolicy,andthebirdinthehandfallacy组员：王永慧，李勇，刘帅FrameworkConceptsApplicationsContentsFrameworkImperfectinformationThevaluationofstockearningsforoutsideinvestorsExternalinvestordemandforstocksStockpriceThemanagementsDividendsassignalsContentsAssumptions1.Outsideinvestorshaveimperfectinformationoftheinvestment,whiletheagentsdon’tcommunicatewithexternalinvestorabouttherelatedinformationwithoutmoralhazard“;2.Cashdividendsaretaxedatahigherratethancapitalgains;ContentsAssumptions3.Whenestimatecashflow,theexternalinvestorisinariskneutralcondition,sotherewillbenoriskavoidance;4.Dividendsinthefuturewillbeafixedvalue,andtheprofitofeachperiodisalsoseenasafixedvalue,sothatitiseasytoanalyze;Modelintroduction•Underthefrontofaseriesofassumptions,wecangetthefollowingformula:E(D)isinternalinvestors’maximumofbenefits,（1-α）forthetaxrate,Dforthedividend,Xcorrespondingtothefuturecashflowsofthestock,f(x)isthedensityfunctionofthedistributionofcashflow,Mformeancashflow,Risthemarketrateofreturn,βisinternalinvestorsborrowingcosts,andV(D)istheliquidationvalue,closetoholdthecapitalgains,wecanfinallyget:Hereisaspecialcaseofthelogicalderivation:•Firstofall,itisassumedthatthedistributionofthefuturecashflowoftheassetisa(0,t)freedistribution•Assumptionsregardingdividend(D)andfuturecashflow(t)aremetasafunctionof:•Specificexamples,assumethatX(0,t)issubjecttotheuniformdistribution,theninternalrevenuefunctionisthegoalofmaximizingshareholders：•Firstordercondition:•Thefunctionofliquidationvaluegrowthis:•WhichK=1/rcanbelaunchedattheend:•Accordingtotheaboveassumptionswehave:D(0)=0,weassumethatD(t)hasthefollowingform;D(t)=At,youcandrawtheequationofA:•Accordingtotheformulaofthequadraticequation,wehave:•BymeansofthefirstorderconditionalintegralandwiththeaidoftheboundaryconditionsoftheV(0)=0,wecanfinallygetthefunctionoftheincreasingvalueoftheliquidation：•Fromthisformula,wecansee,thegrowthofliquidationvalueisnotonlyrelatetothedividend“D”,andthevalueof“Beta”,“a”,“R”isalsoinvolved,eveniffinancingcostBetaiszero,thegrowthofliquidationvalueisstillrelatedwitha,becausethegrowthofliquidationvalueistheembodimentofthestock,Therefore,theinfluencefactorsofstockpriceisnottheonly”D”.Sothetheoryof”abirdinthehandisafallacy.•Extendedtothemodelofmultiperiod:•Thesameperiodmodelcanbeobtained:•Thefunctionformofthegrowthoffinalliquidationvalueis:•Wecangetthesameconclusion.Therefore,nomatterinaperiodormoremodels,theauthorconcludesthattheabirdinthehandisafallacy.Soitprovestheconclusionofthearticleagain.Concepts1.Dividendsthatpartoftheearningsofacorporationthatisdistributedtoitsshareholders;usuallypaidquarterly.Concepts2.ARelevanceTheoryofDividends2.1Traditionaldividendpolicytheory①MMtheory②Taxdifferencetheory③“Abirdinthehand”theory2.2Twomaintheoriesofmoderndividendpolicy①signalinghypothesis②Agencycosttheoryofdividend③Othertheories(clienteleeffecttheoryandbehavioraltheory)ApplicationsEmpiricalresearchonChina’slistedcompaniesdividendsignalingeffect，chenxiao,chenxiaoyue,1998;TheempiricalstudyofdividenddistributionoflistedcompaniesinChina,weigang,1998;CorporatedividendpolicyandstockmarketvolatilityinChina,yuqiao,chengying,2001;AnempiricalanalysisofthesignaltransmissioneffectofthedividendpolicyoflistedCorporation,kongxiaowen,yuxiaokun,2003;ApplicationsCashdividends:PasstheearningssignalortheroleofsupervisionandGovernance,yangyi,shenyifeng,2004;Dividendpolicy,earningspersistenceandsignaldisplay,lizhuo,songyu,2007;Researchontheeffectofdividendsignalbasedondividendannouncement,lvchangjiang,xujingjing,2010.谢谢观看