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1Ted演讲标题：处乱不惊Afewyearsago,Ibrokeintomyownhouse.Ihadjustdrivenhome,itwasaroundmidnightinthedeadofMontrealwinter,Ihadbeenvisitingmyfriend,Jeff,acrosstown,andthethermometeronthefrontporchreadminus40degrees,anddon’tbotheraskingifthat’sCelsiusorFahrenheit,minus40iswherethetwoscalesmeet,itwasverycold.AndasIstoodonthefrontporchfumblinginmypockets,IfoundIdidn’thavemykeys.Infact,Icouldseethemthroughthewindow,lyingonthediningroomtablewhereIhadleftthem.SoIquicklyranaroundandtiredalltheotherdoorsandwindowsandtheywerelockedtight.IthoughtaboutcallingalocksmithatleastIhadmycellphone,butatmidnight,itcouldtakeawhileforalocksmithtoshowupanditwascold.Icouldn’tgobacktomyfriendJeff’shouseforthenightbecauseIhadanearlyflighttoEuropeanthenextmorning,andIneedtogetmypassportandmysuitcase.So,desperateandfreezingcold,IfoundalargerockandIbrokethroughthebasementwindow,clearouttheshardsofglass,Icrawledthrough,Ifoundapieceofcardboardandtapeditupovertheopening,figuringthatinthemorning,onthewaytotheairport,Icouldcallmycontractorandaskhimtofixit.Thiswasgoingtobeexpensive,butprobablynomoreexpensivethanamiddle-of-the-nightlocksmith,soIfigure,underthecircumstances,Iwascomingouteven.几年前，我闯进了我自己的房子。那时我开车回到了家，那时大概是半夜，蒙特利尔的寒冬，我去了另一个小镇拜访我的朋友，杰夫，前廊的温度是零下40度，不要浪费时间去问是华氏还是摄氏了，零下40度时，这两种温度都差不多，非常的冷。我站在前廊摸索我的口袋，我发现我没带钥匙。事实上，我可以透过窗户看到它们，就在餐桌上，之前我把他们放在那里了。于是我很快的围着房子绕了一圈，试了所有的门和窗，它们都被牢牢锁着。我想去找一个锁匠，至少我有手机在身边，但是半夜时分，锁匠要过一段时间才能来。天很冷。我也不能大晚上的回到我的朋友杰夫家里去，因为第二天早上我要坐飞机去欧洲，我需要拿到我的护照和行李。所以，在绝望与严寒中，我找到了一块大石头，通过打碎地下室的窗户闯进了家，我清理了玻璃碎片，爬进去，我找到一块纸板，把它挡在窗户窟窿上，想着第二天早上在去机场的路上，我可以给我的承包商打电话让他去修理。这会很贵。但是应该不会比深夜找锁匠贵，所以我想，在这种情况下，这样差不多。thermometer[θərˈmɑ:mɪtə(r)]温度计porch[pɔ:rtʃ]门廊celsius[ˈsɛlsiəs]摄氏fahrenheit[ˈfærənˌhaɪt]华氏fumbling[ˈfʌmblɪŋ]（笨拙地）摸索locksmith[ˈlɑ:ksmɪθ]锁匠shard[ʃɑ:rd]尖利的碎片crawl[krɔl]爬行taped[tept]用带子捆起来contractor[kənˈtræktə(r)]承包商2Now,I’maneuroscientistbytraining,andIknowalittlebitabouthowthebrainperformsunderstress.Itreleasescortisolthatraisesyourheartrate,itmodulatesadrenalinelevelsanditcloudsyourthinking.Sothenextmorning,whenIwokeupontoolittlesleep,worryingabouttheholeinthewindow,andamentalnotethatIhadtocallmycontractor,andthefreezingtemperatures,andthemeetingsIhadupcominginEurope,and,youknow,withallthecortisolinmybrain,mythinkingwascloudy,butIdidn’tknowitwascloudybecausemythinkingwascloudy.Anditwasn’tuntilIgottotheairportcheck-incounterthatIrealizedIdidn’thavemypassport.SoIracedhomeinthesnowandices,40minutes,gotmypassport,racedbacktotheairport.Imadeitjustintime,buttheyhadgivenawaymyseattosomeoneelse,soIgotstuckinthebackoftheplane,nexttothebathrooms,inaseatthatwouldn’trecline,onaneight-flighthour.Well,Ihadalotoftimetothinkduringthoseeighthoursandnosleep.AndIstartedwondering,aretherethingsthatIcando,systemsthatIcanputintoplace,thatwillpreventbadthingsfromhappening?OratleastIfbadthingshappen,willminimizethelikelihoodofitbeingatotalcatastrophe.SoIstartedthinkaboutthat,butmythoughtsdidn’tcrystallizeuntilaboutamonthlater.Iwashavingdinnerwithmycolleague,DannyKahneman,theNobelPrizewinner,andIsomewhatembarrassedlytoldhimabouthavingbrokenmywindow,and,youknow,forgottenmypassport,andDannysharedwithmethathe’dbeenpracticingsomethingcalledprospectivehindsight.It’ssomethingthathehadgottenfromthepsychologistGaryKlein,whohadwrittenaboutitafewyearsbefore,alsocalledthepre-mortem.现在，通过培训，我成了一名神经学家。我懂得了一点，在压力下，大脑是如何工作的。大脑会释放皮质醇，进而提升你的心跳速度，它调节肾上腺素水平，进而影响你的思维。所以第二天，只睡了一点点我就醒过来，担忧窗户上的洞，脑子里记着，我要给我的承包商打电话，还想着严寒，然后我将要在欧洲参加的会议。你知道，我脑子里所有的皮质醇，我的脑子里一片乌云，我不知道这一点，当时我的思维一团糊涂，因为我的脑子里一片乌云。直到我到了机场的值机柜台，我才意识到我没有带护照。所以我在冰雪天冲回了家，用了40分钟，拿到了我的护照，然后冲回机场，刚刚好赶上了，但是他们已经把我的位置给了其他人，所以我只能坐在飞机的最后面，靠近厕所的地方，而且那个位置是不能往后仰的，那个飞机要飞8个小时。在这8个小时里，不能睡觉，于是我有了很多时间去思考。我开始想，我可不可以做些什么，去创建一个系统，从而可以预防到这些糟糕的事情发生。或者至少，如果有糟糕的事情发生，可以将其变成灾难的可能性降至最低。所以我开始想这件事，但是直到一个月后，我的想法才变得些许具体。那时我跟我的同事，诺贝尔奖得主，丹尼尔卡曼，一起吃饭，我有点尴尬地为他讲述了，我曾经打破玻璃，你知道的，又忘了我的护照的经历，丹尼跟我分享。他说，他正在练习一种前瞻性事后诸葛亮的东西。他是从心理学家加里克莱恩那里知道的，几年前，加里写过相关的文章，称之为预检。neuroscientist['njʊəroʊsaɪəntɪst]神经学家hindsight[ˈhaɪndˌsaɪt]后见之明cortisol['kɔ:tɪsɒl]皮质醇psychologist[saɪˈkɑ:lədʒɪst]心理学家modulates[ˈmɑ:dʒəleɪt]调节pre-mortem预检adrenaline[əˈdrɛnəlɪn]肾上腺素recline[rɪˈklaɪn]使躺下catastrophe[kəˈtæstrəfi]大灾难crystallize['krɪstlˌaɪz]计划成型prospective[prəˈspɛktɪv]预期的3Now,youallknowwhatthepostmortemis.Wheneverthere’sadisaster,ateamofexpertscomeinandtheytrytofigureoutwhatwentwrong,right?Well,inthepre-mortem,Dannyexplained,youlookaheadandyoutrytofigureoutallthethingsthatcouldgowrong,andthenyoutrytofigureoutwhatyoucandotopreventthosethingsfromhappening,ortominimizethedamage.SoIwanttotalktoyouabouttodayaresomeofthethingswecandointheformofapre-mortem.Someofthemareobvious,someofthemarenotsoobvious.I’llstartwiththeobviousones.Aroundthehome,designateaplaceforthingsthatareeasilylost.Now,thissoundslikecommonsense,anditis,butthere’salotofsciencetobackthisup,basedonthewayourspecialmemoryworks.There’sastructureinthebraincalledthehippocampus,thatevolvedovertensofthousandsofyears,tokeeptrackofthelocationsofimportantthingswherethewellis,wherefishcanbefound,thatstandoffruittrees,wherethefriendlyandenemytribeslive.Thehippocampusisthepart