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1STWSTWSTWSTWABSTRACT2RESEARCHONMETHODOFDYNAMICSUPPLIERS’EVALUATIONONTHEBASISOFSUPPLYCHAINABSTRACTWiththefurtherdeepeningofeconomicglobalization,thecompetitionamongenterpriseshasinvolvedalllinksinthesupplychain.Therefore,enterprisesmustmakeuseoftheirsuppliersinordertofindoutsupplierswithexcellentpotential,whocanbedevelopedtostrategiccooperativepartnersinalongrun.Anefficientandpropermethodofsuppliers’performanceevaluationnotonlycanreflectactualabilitiesofsuppliers,butalsoestablishthesuppliers’confidenceinenterprises,whichwillcontributetothestabilityofsuppliers’team.Thisthesishasadeepstudyonthemethodofsuppliers’performanceevaluationinmanufacturingenterpriseswiththebackgroundofimprovementprojectofsuppliers’evaluationworkinSTW.Knowingthemainproblemsexistinginsuppliers’performanceevaluationindomesticenterprises,thethesisstudiesthecurrentmethodusedinSTW.Throughanalysis,thethesissummarizesthetwomainlimitationsinthecurrentmethod.Oneistheweightsassignmentarenotreasonableinthecomprehensiveevaluationsystem,theotheristhecurrentmethodisstatic.Afterthat,thethesisexplainsthemaintargetofsuppliers’performanceevaluationistoestimatetheirfutureworkinsteadofsummaryofthepastperformance,whichwillprovideenoughinformationforfuturerelativedecision-makinginenterprises.Onthebasisofabovementionedanalysis,thisthesiskeepsthecurrentelementsofsupplier’sevaluationinSTW,andthenconstructsadynamicmethodtoevaluatethesuppliers’performancebasedontheprincipleofAnalyticHierarchyProcessandLeastSquaresprocedurewiththeadjustmentofevaluationcycle,whichmakesupthedisadvantagesoftheoriginalstaticevaluationsystem.Thisthesisusesthedynamicmethodtoevaluatethesuppliers’inSTW,whichoutcomeismuchclosertotheactualperformancetrendofsuppliers,andeliminatetheeffectofsubjectiveunderstanding.Allthesewillhelpenterprisestofindoutpotentialsuppliers,adjustpolicy,andavoidrisks.Thatprovestheevaluationmethodstudiesinthispaperhasagreatimprovecomparedwiththecurrentone.ItalsoillustratesthemethodisABSTRACT3ofvalueinpracticalwork,whichcanbereferredinperfectingsuppliers’evaluationsystemandtechnologyofsupplychainmanagement.KEYWORDS:supplychain,supplychainmanagement,dynamicsuppliers’evaluation,analytichierarchyprocess1123420081232STW12.53060100STWSTWSTWSTW1234STW31-14Fig.1-1StructureoftheThesis5SupplyChainJ.LGattornaD.W.WaltersJonesHoulinhanStevensHarrisonGB/T18354-2001Supplychain62-1Fig.2-1TypicalsupplychainmodelJIT712345SGSCFStanfordGlobalSupplyChainForum2005GB/T18354-2001SupplySchedulingplanLogisticsDemandInternet/Intrance2-28Fig.2-2ThefieldsSupplyChainmanagementinvolved1234Internet/Intranet91231041234111234//5/6789/10Dickson196623273232-112DicksonEICICICICICICICIAIAIAIAIAIAIEICIAISI2-1AIAIAIAIAIAIAIAISIEICIAISIWeber(1991)DicksonWeber1967199074Dickson23132747WeberYahyaKingsman(1999)162-2DicksonBenton1992WeberCurrent142-2YahyaKingsman0.09610.2460.3040.41320.0310.5870.67130.0360.32940.33650.0670.79560.0480.2050.81470.0840.1860.6700.13080.1520.200ERPERP12342002152000TimeTQualityQCostCServiceS20022003200416Fig.2-3TypicalStructureofANP213B3B4B6B2B1B517(ANN)ArtificialNeuralNetwork2080JakobBernoulli181654-170519Markov20AHPAnalyticHierarchyProcessAHPAHPAHP211AHP3-1123111………Fig.3-1HierarchicalStructure22921nnCU1,U2…UnCUiUj(nji≤≤,1)3-1aijaijA=(aij)nA1)aij02)UiUjUiUjUjUi3)1aii=1nnn1~93-12)1(-nnjiijaa1=nww,,1Λ233-1AHP135792,4,6,8Amaxlw2ABCAB...Aaij=aik×akjAAw=(w1,w2,…,wn)T(3.1)nA(3.2)w=(w1,w2,…,wn)TAw=nwwAnwAA?max=n?maxw=(w1,w2,…,wn)TwU1,U2,…UnC?maxaij?maxnA∑==niiw11⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=nnnnnnwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwAΛΛΛΛΛΛΛ21222121211124?maxU1,U2…UnC3.33.3CI=0CIARI5001~9(3.4)nRIRIRICRCRCR4nAmA1A2…Ama1a2…amBnB1,B2,…,BnAjb1jb2j…,bnj,BkAjbkj0B3.3RICI1max--=nnCIl1'max--=nnRIlmax'l253-3BBAiCIRIB(3.5)CR=0.13-212∑∑===mjjmjjajRIajCICR11)()(26,Fig.3-2CalculationprocessofAHP27STW2820imie∑=wT0T1...TmP0P1…Pm(mT0P0T1P1TmPmP=f(T)Tm+1Pm+1T=xP=yyfxnxyfxf(x1ˆ+myfx1ˆ+myyfxfxfxfxfxxiyˆimxei=iyˆ-yifxieieimeiei=iyˆ-yii=0,…,mimeie1e2…em—e—e—imie∑=0iemax2920imie∑=—iei=0…meef(x),(iiyxy=f(x)3-3f(x)f(x)Fig.3-3SimulationCurvei=0,…,m)Φ(3.6)3.6()xdfde∑=mii02eΦ∈=∑=nkkknxaxp0)([]min)(00202=⎟⎠⎞⎜⎝⎛-=-=∑∑∑===miminkikikiinyxayxpI),(iiyx)(mnn≤)(xpn30n=1(3.7)(3.8)3.8(3.9)3.83.93.93.9(k=0,1,…n)(3.10)3.103.6(3.7)(3.11)naaaΛ,,10),,(10naaaIIΛ=naaaΛ,,10∑==nkkknxaxp0)([]∑=-miiinyxp02)(∑∑==-=minkikikyxaI020)(∑=-=miiinyxp0222])([e∑∑∑===-=nkmikikmiiiyxay000222)(enjxyxaaImijinkikikj,,1,0,0)(200Λ==-=∂∂∑∑==njyxaxnkmiijikmikji,,1,0,)(000Λ==∑∑∑===+⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡=⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎥⎦⎤⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎢⎣⎡+∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑=====+==+====miinimiiimiinminiminiminiminimiimiiminimiiyxyxyaaaxxxxxxxxm000100201001020001ΜΜΛΜΜΜΛΛka)(xpn)(xpn)(xpn31(1)——n(2)(3)naaaΛ,,10(4)EXCELwAHP3-412AHPAHP3EXCEL45AHPjiwwjiww∑==nkkknxaxp0)(∑==mijinjx0)2,,1,0(Λ∑==miijinjyx0)2,,1,0(Λ32AHPNYFig.3-4Processofdynamicevaluationofsuppliers33STW35%STW1211300240STW19531953~19816~300MW1982~1995—300MW600MW1995~2003199512STWSTC199968322003——600~1000MW342002STWSTW4-135Fig.4-1StructureofPurchasingDept.inSTW4-1STW36STWFig.4-2ProcessofSuppliers’managementinSTW2004STWSTWSTW80%4-2374-2STW&&&&1001001