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AsianFinancialCrisis目录一.Asianfinancialcrisis1997–981.数据2.概况3.原因4.影响二.投机者-索罗斯三.IMF的角色四.经验教训1997亚洲金融风暴概况之危机原因新马泰日韩等国都为外向型经济的国家。他们对世界市场的依附很大。亚洲经济的动摇难免会出现牵一发而动全身的状况。金融大鳄一只假寐的老狼个人价值观趋向资本主义国家的默许新中国成立预示着社会主义阵营的建立。美国，，有了危机感。他通过强大的经济后盾在亚太地区建立起一个资本主义的统一战线：韩国，日本，台湾直至东南亚，都成为美国的经济附庸。这给亚洲一些国家飞速发展带来了经济支持。直接触发因素内在基础性因素世界经因素equilibrium由于国际方面的信贷繁荣和当局放宽对外国资本流入，导致外资流入增加。通常情况下，资金会找到自己的方式，无论是实体经济的贷款给企业或的非生产性股票和房地产市场。不幸的是，在这段时间的资金流入股市和房地产市场朝向。下表显示了在1997年给予的贷款，物业部门和不良贷款的百分比。可以看出，从上述四国受影响最严重的危机也配合他们的尊重银行业的不良贷款率最高。金融危机对这些国家各自的国内生产总值增长的效果。财政失衡是指付款余额为负值，一国偿还其债务的能力之间的差异。资料来源：国际货币基金组织上表显示出口和经常项目的恶化。该表显示，而经常项目赤字居高不下，出口国的同时经历了在其出口收入下滑。在韩国和泰国，其出口增长最少，分别只有3.7和0.5％。与此相比的30.3和23.1％，分别较上年同期。因此，这代表了减少出口持续高经常账户赤字财政失衡。换句话说，最终出口收入将不足以支付其经常账户赤字。由于在出口的蓬勃发展，有必要的资金，以资助其出口行业和其他经济活动的增加。当时全球金融市场的开放，对外部资金的来源提供了一个完美的途径。然而，最终这些借款将扩大的经常账户赤字。当一个国家的经常账户赤字扩大，加上出口下降，由于外国资金的流入，货币高估，它会吸引货币投机者的关注。受影响的经济体政府将试图捍卫其货币，无论是通过提高利率或使用其外汇储备货币撑起。当他们提高利率，最终将带来银行业由于增加国外借贷成本。最终会有“逆转资金流动”-从外国资金流入到流出。有了这样的资金流出，将导致信贷紧缩，加上高利率，它最终将影响房地产和银行业。reverseflowoffunds’国际收支危机和银行危机之间的关系更是明显，时下，由于金融业的全球化。下表显示了银行之间的危机和国际收支的频率。从上面的表中可以看出，在1980年之前发生的危机更偏于收支平衡。29个危机的总额出只有3个是银行业危机。然而，自20世纪80年代以来，银行业金融机构总危机上升到23，73。因此，我们可以推断出，现今的金融危机可能会由结算付款和银行的关系引起。Eventsin97TimeEventsEarly1997TheThaibahtisunderspeculative（投机）attack.Early1997Therearesevenhigh-profilebankruptcies（破产）ofKoreanconglomerates（企业集团）,suchasHanboSteelandKiaMotors.JulyThePhilippinesabandonsdollar-pegandimposes（规定）certainforeignexchangecontrols.Malaysiaalsoabandonsitspeggedexchangerate.20AugustTheIMFputstogethera$17.2billionThairescue.Mid-OctoberDevaluations（货币贬值）tothedollaraverage20%to30%inThailand,Indonesia,MalaysiaandthePhilippines.5NovemberIndonesiafinalizesadealwiththeIMFforfundingthatcouldtotalupto$42.3billion.4DecemberTheIMForganizesa$58.2billionrescueforKoreaEventsin98TimeEventsEarly1998Thesecondphaseofthecrisis,'AsiaII',TheIndonesiareleasebudgetplanpullstherupiahtoanall-timelow.7thJanIndonesianfinancialcrisisbreaksout,IMFmeasuresdevelopedinIndonesiafailedtoachievethedesiredresults。11thfebIndonesiangovernmentannouncedthatitwouldimplementafixedexchangeratewiththeU.S.dollarpeg16thFebBankNegaraMalaysia(马来西亚中央银行)reducesrrfrom13.5%to10%inbanks.Boostingliquidityinbanks.IndonesianRupiahwiththeU.S.dollarfellbelowthe10000:1may、JuneJapaneseYenexchangerateallthewaydownEventsin98TimeEventJuneThethirdphaseofthecrisis,'AsiaIII',beginswithanotherspeculativeattackontheHongKongdollar.JuneTheHongKongdollarpegisdefendedbytheauthoritieswithmarketintervention.17JuneTheUnitedStatesbeginstointerveneintheforeignexchangemarkets,attemptingtosupporttheJapaneseyen.AugustTheHongKongdollarisattackedagainand$8.8billionisspentdefendingit.September1Malaysiaimposesmorecapitalcontrols;theringgitisfixedatRM3.80tothedollar.SeptemberAsrealeconomicactivitycontracts,Korealowersshortterminterestrates.CausesDeteriorating（不断恶化的）economicconditionsMoral（道德）Hazards（危害）bybanksandcorporations（企业）Toomuchinflow（流入）offoreignfundsStockmarketandRealEstate（房地产）BubbleLackofregulatory（监管）controlonfundsMassivedisinvestment（撤资）Speculation?Whoarespeculators（投机者）?LargeInternationalfinancialinstitutions,banksandfundmanagersattackingcentralbanksWhy?Theyshortsale（卖空）currenciesandmakethecentralbankrunoutofforeignreserves.Thisbreakstheequilibrium（平衡）amongcurrencies.GeorgeSorosSorosFundManagement(est.1969)AdvisesQuantumGroupofFunds（量子基金集团）“theManWhoBroketheBankofEngland”BlamedforsharpdevaluationofsoutheasterncurrenciesIfyouhadinvested$1kin1969,youwouldhave$1mil25yearslater(32%growth/yr.)InJulyof1997,SorosFundProfitsdoubled!SpeculatorsTakeActionsWhen…Financialmarketsareruledbyhumansemotionalreactionsthanusinglogicalcalculation!Whenadevelopingcountrystartstofinanciallyliberalizebeforeitsinstitutionsorknowledgebaseisprepared,itopensitselftothepossibilityofshocksandinstabilitywithinflowsandoutflowsoffunds!HowDidSpeculatorsTakeAdvantageofAsianMarkets?Macroeconomicindicators:LargecurrentaccountdeficitsDecliningexportsExcessivelendingtocertaineconomicsectorsWeakbankingsystems,coupledwithinadequatenationalpoliciesgoverningtheoutflowofcapitalHighlevelsofshort-termdebtNationsUnderSpeculationAttacks:ThailandMalaysiaHongKong($1b=D,$80binFixRate)PhilippinesChina(Non-ConvertibleCurrency)SouthKoreaJapanWhatHappenedinThailand?OnMay14&15,SorosattackedThaiBahtBorrowedandsoldThaibaht,receivingUSdollarsinexchangeFinancialcrisesstartedwhenBahtwasnotdefendedThebahtfell,speculatorsneededmuchlessdollarstorepaythebahtloans,thusmakinglargeprofitsThaigovernmentusedUS$20billionofforeignreservesTheCentralBankranoutofForeignReservesPreviousFinancialCrisesWhathappenedinEastAsiaisnotpeculiar(特殊的),buthasalreadyhappenedto:ManyLatinAmericancountriesin1980sSwedenandNorwayintheearly1990sMexicoin1994SoutheastAsiain1997Russiain1998Theyfacedsuddencurrencydepreciations（贬值）duetospeculativeattacksorlargeoutflowsoffundsIMFHistoryandBackground1944–44governmentsestablishaframeworkforglobaleconomicdevelopment.1973–currenciesofmajorpowersallowedtofloat1997–AsianFinancialCrisis2008–IMFfacesbudgetshortfall2009–G-20London–memberspledge（抵押）toincreases