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CreditRegisters:aToolforImprovedBankRiskRegulationandSupervision.信用登记：提高银行风险监管能力的工具JerryCaprioTheWorldBank世界银行…..BejingSeptember29,2004北京2004年9月29日Outlineofthepresentation讲演大纲1.CreditRegistersaretoolsintendedtobroadentheaccesstocreditmarkets…信用登记着眼于拓宽信贷市场进入渠道…2.…makingpossiblebetterriskassessmentsonthepartofthebanks...使银行部门可能更好地进行风险评估…3.…inadditiontheymaybeatoolformoreadvancedriskbasedsupervision……此外还有利于开展高级风险性监管…4.…asinthecaseoftheassessmentofbankcapitalrequirements......同银行资本金要求的评估相似...5.…butimportantchallengeslieahead!!...但面临着重大的挑战!!...CR&Accesstocreditmarket信用登记与信贷市场准入•Banksoftendonotlendtoindividualcustomerslacking“physicalcollateral”…银行通常不向缺少实物担保的个人提供贷款•…andthereforerestricttheircredittotheirwealthiestcustomers.…因此他们向最富有客户的信贷受到了限制•Agoodcreditrecordrepresentsanalternativeand“wealthfree”collateral:a“reputationcollateral”…良好的信用记录反映了另一种非财产担保的方式：信誉担保•...thatallowsbankstolendtoallcustomersindependentlyfromtheirwealth....这就使银行可向所有客户贷款而不需考虑他们的财产状况CR&Accesstocreditmarket信用登记与信贷市场准入•WorldBankresearchshowsthatlendingmayincreasesubstantially,withoutincreasingtheriskexposure,whenbankssupplementtheirowninformationwiththatprovidedbyCreditRegisters(Majnonietal.2004).世行研究表明，若银行将已有信息同信用登记所提供的信息结合起来，信贷大幅增长的同时不会带来风险敞口的扩大(Majnonietal.2004)。•EvidencefromArgentinaandBrazilshows:阿根廷和巴西的经验证明：•thatasmallbank,whenaddingCRdatainitscreditworthinessassessment,couldincreaseitslendingupto30%withoutincreasingitsrisk;小型银行若在对信用可靠度进行评估时添加信用登记提供的数据，可以增加高达30%的贷款而不至增加风险；•gainsarehigherforsmallerbanks.对小型银行而言收益更高。FromAccesstoCredittoCreditRiskManagement从信贷市场准入到信贷风险管理Creditinformationsharingbyimprovingbanks’riskassessmenthelpsbanks:通过改善银行风险评估的信贷信息共享有助于银行：•toextendcredittonewpreviouslyrationedbutcreditworthycustomer.ByaffectingcreditoriginationCRsimprovetheaccesstobankcredit.向新的客户提供信贷,这些新客户之前得不到足够的贷款但却具有良好信用度。通过影响信用机构，信用登记可以提高银行信贷的可得性。•tomeasuretheaggregateriskoftheirloanportfoliosimprovingriskmanagement.提高风险管理能力，衡量贷款组合的总体风险MarketAccessandRiskManagementareinfacttwofacesofthesamecoin.市场准入和风险管理是一枚硬币的正反两面。CR&CreditRiskManagement信用登记与信用风险管理•WorldBankresearchshowsthatriskcandecreasesubstantially,atanyleveloflending,whenbankssupplementtheirowninformationwiththatprovidedbyCreditRegisters(Majnonietal.2004).世行研究表明，若银行将已有信息同信用登记所提供的信息结合起来，在任意给定的信贷水平上，风险可以大幅降低。(Majnonietal.2004)。•EvidencefromArgentinaandBrazilshowsthatabankswhoonaverageaccepts60%ofitsloanapplicantscandecreaseitsdefaultriskby30%byusingCRdatainadditiontohisowninformation.阿根廷和巴西的经验证明，一家平均放贷率为60%的银行，若在对信用可靠度进行评估时添加信用登记提供的数据，可以减少30%的违约风险。CR&CreditRiskManagement信用登记与信用风险管理EmpiricalevidenceshowsthatthedesignofCRsaffectsthecontributionthatCRdatamayoffertoriskmanagement.Notably:经验证据表明，信用登记的设计会影响到信用登记数据对风险管理的贡献程度。主要表现在：•thepresenceofpositiveinformationaboutborrowersincreasesprecisionofdefaultestimatesreducingtheamountofriskforanylendinglevel(towhatextentbanksmaybewillingtosharepositiveinformation,though,isanopenissue).借款人的正面信息提高了违约估计的准确性，也减少了任一借贷水平上的风险（但银行愿意在何种程度上分享正面信息的问题仍未得到解决）•appropriatehistoricallengthofcreditrecordsshouldbeachieved.应有足够长的信贷历史记录。FromRiskManagementtoRiskBasedSupervision从风险管理到风险性监管WhatprovesusefulforBanks’riskassessmentisalsousefulforSupervisors’controlofbanks’riskexposures.SupervisorshaveusedCRdatafor:被证明对银行风险评估有用的资料同样对监管者控制银行风险敞口有用。监管者已经在如下方面采用了信用登记的数据：•on-sitesupervision(53countriesoutofthe57countriesreviewedbytheWorldBank);现场监测（世行review的57个国家中的53个国家采用）；•off-sitesupervision(49countriesoutof57);非现场监测(57个国家中的49个采用）；•controlcreditriskconcentration.控制信贷风险的集中。Inaddition,CRsfavorcompetitionandmayhelppreventingtheestablishmentofdominantpositionsinthebankingmarketandinthatofcreditinformation.此外，信用登记鼓励竞争并将有助于防止银行市场和信贷信息上支配力量的形成。CR&RiskBasedSupervision信用登记与风险性监管•Theinternationaltrendtowardariskbasedbanksupervision(i.e.anapproachlessbasedonadministrativerulesandmoreonaclosemonitoringofbanks’riskexposures)opensupanewroleforCRs.向风险性监管转变的国际潮流使信用登记有了新作用。•Adequatecreditriskdatabasesforbanksandbanksupervisorsareinfactapreconditionforriskbasedregulationandsupervision(togetherwithadequateskillsamongbanksupervisors,neweffectivemonitoringproceduresandsanctions).向银行和银行监管者提供的足够的信贷信息数据实际上是风险性监管的前提条件（还包括：监管者一定的能力，新的有效监控程序和sanction)。CR&RiskBasedSupervision信用登记与风险性监管TheongoingdebateaboutthedesirablebankcapitalregulationapproachofferausefulexampleoftherolethatCRdatamayplayinthedefinitionofariskbasedregulationinemergingcountries.CRdatamayinfacthelptosolvea:一直以来关于理想的银行资本监管方法的讨论为信用登记数据在新兴国家对风险性监管的定义方面所起的作用提供了有用的例子。信用登记数据实际上将有助于解决一下问题：•measurementproblem:quantifyingtheVaRforabankingsystemwithoutusingcomplexmodels;•测算问题：不使用复杂的模型而能确定银行体系风险价值的大小；•policyproblem:indicatinghowVaRscanbesplitamongCapitalandLoanLossReserves(anareawhereBasel2doesnotprovideguidance).政策问题：指出风险价值在资本和贷款损失准备之间是如何划分的（新巴赛尔协议未涉及此问题）CR&BankCapitalRegulation信用登记与银行资本金监管RecentresearchattheWorldBank(Majnoni,Miller,Powell,2004)showsthatcountrieswithCRs,mayapplysimplestatisticaltechniquesto:世界银行最近研究(Majnoni,Miller,Powell,2004)表明，实行信用登记的国家可能采用简单的统计技巧进行如下操作：VisualizethedistributionofCreditLossesandtheVaRwithoutincurringintomodelorestimationerror