供应链突发事件扩散机理研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文供应链突发事件扩散机理研究姓名：杜守梅申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：季建华20081201I4711223647IIIIIResearchonDiffusionMechanismofEmergencyinSupplyChainABSTRACTRecently,theapplicationofLeanproduction,JITanddevelopmentofglobalizationimproveefficiencyandreducecost;butmeanwhiletheymakethewholesupplychainsystemmorevulnerableandenterprisesmoredependableoneachother.Thisleadsthatonceanyemergencyhappensonasinglenetworknode(Enterprise)orline(transportation),itwillimpactrelatedsupplychainmembersquickly,eventhoughothernodesonthenet.Basedonthisitisveryimportanttoresearchemergenciesinsupplychain.Thispaperstudiesthediffusionmechanismofemergenciesinsupplychain.Itfocusesonthecause,processandcharacterofemergencydiffusioninsupplychain;aswellasthediffusiontimeandstrengthemergencydiffusionwilltake.Atlastsomesuggestionsandadvicesaregivenbasedonanalysisabove.Thispaperisdividedintofourpartsincludingsevenchapters.Eachpart’scontentisasfollows:Partincludesthefirstchapterandthesecondchapter.Thefirstchapteristheintroductionofthewholepaper,andthesecondchapteristheliteraturereview.Chapteroneintroducesthebackgroundandsignificanceofthestudy,andthendemonstratestheframeworkandinnovationofthepaper;Chaptertworeviewsthecurrentstudyofriskconductionandemergencydiffusionfromthreepoint:conception,managementtheoryandconduction(ordiffusion)mechanism.Partisthemainbodyofthispaperandincludesthreechapters:theorybasis,macro-framemodelandmicro-modelsofdiffusiontimeandstrengthofemergencyinsupplychain.Chapterthreedefinestheconceptofemergencyandemergencydiffusion,andthenresearchtheircharacterandclassification.Attheendofthechapter,threetheoriesaresummeduptoexplainthediffusionmechanism;Chapterfourfirstgivesthreebasicmodels:systemmodel,causalmodelanddiffusionmodelofEmergency.Thenconcept“Energyvector”isusedtoexplaintheFunctionAttributeofnodeinsystemmodelandtheDynamicmodelofEmergencyDiffusioninSupplyChain;Atlast,chapterfivediscussesdiffusiontimeandstrengthofemergencyinlinearsupplychainandsupplychainnet.Partisaboutcountermeasuresagainstemergencyinsupplychainbasedontheresearchabove,includingtheestablishmentofaneffectiveemergency-identificationandassessmentmethod;areliableearly-warningandmonitoringsystem;supplychainsystemredesignandcooperationbetweenIVenterprises.Partisthesummaryofthewholepaper.Firstitsummarizesthemainresearchconclusion,andthendemonstratesthefuturedirections.Theinnovationofthispapercanbesummedupas:Introductionofemergencyfactor,aswellasinducing(ordisturbing)factor.Basedontheseconcepts,systemmodel,causalmodelanddiffusionmodelofEmergencyareproposed;theproposalofEnergyvector.Thisconceptisputforwardforthecharacterofnodeincludingenergy,energyThresholdandthenatureofenergy,aswellasthedescriptionofdynamicprocessofemergency.Impactofemergencyinlinearsupplychainisextendedfromtwo-stagetomultistage,meanwhiletheobjectivecontainsnotonlytheincreaseofrawmaterial’spricebroughtbyemergency,butalsothedecreaseofsupplyandincreaseofenddemand.Insupplychainnetwork,parametersoffixedprofitratioandcostcomponentareintroducedtoanalyzehowsomeoftherawmaterials’priceincreaseswillaffectthelowernodes’pricing.Keywords:Emergency,DiffusionMechanism,EmergencyFactor,Inducing(orDisturbing)Factor□_____□“√”-1-11.110SARS10199554663140960GDP1.8%2005GDPGDP2.2%1000-2-GDP0.3%4020003172210RFC200070015%10%1713.5%50%20014110020071291470%50%1.247112234536471-1-3-12345671-1Figure1-1Researchframeworkofthepaper123-4-4567//1.3-5-22.12.1.12.1.1.11)2)3)4)Kaplan[1][2]R={Si,Li,Xi}c,i=0,1,2,3SiLiXi5)2.1.1.21)2)-6-3)4)2.1.1.3[3][4][5]-7-2.1.22.1.2.119502-11Figure2-1ModelofRiskManagement2.1.2.2avoidreducetransferavoidretainDeloach[6]1IECInternationalElectrotechnicalCommission-8-Borge[7]IdentifyingQuantifyingPreventingCreatingBuyingandSellingDiversifyingConcentratingHedgingLeveraginginsuranceBusinessContinuityManagementBCMEnterprise-wideRiskManagementEWRMBCP212-2-9-2-2Figure2-2Enterprise-wideRiskManagementDeloach,2000,P342.1.3[8][9][10][11][12][13][14]Stackelberg-10-GangLi[15]DASNINet[16]2.22.2.12.2.1.11)2)3)4)5)2.2.1.2-11-Tylend[20][21][22][23]2.2.1.31)2)3)4)5)-12-2.2.2-13-2.2.3[20]4[25][26][27]-14-2.3-15-33.13.1.11982Tylenol91123.470/-16-1270-80%40%160-200SARS3.1.21)i.()ii.2)3.23.2.1-17-3.2.2-18-20081103-1-19-500342214156783-1Figure3-2VariousProliferationModesforSnowstormtoCauseDisaster012023456023456633.1.11250120452005125-20-3.33.3.1H.W.Heinrich7500088%10%2%98%53-23-2Figure3-1SchematicDiagramofDominoTheory1)2)3)4)-21-5)555VaRBlack-Scholes3.3.2WilliamHaddon,Jr101)2)3)4)5)6)7)8)9)10)101)2)-22-3)3.3.32019443.4-23--24-44.14.1.14-14-12Figure4-1SystemmodelofSupplyChain2GangLi2007A8A7A7A6A5A4A3A2A1A0V0V1V2V3V4V5A8A7A7A6A5A4A3A2A1A0V0V1V2V3V4V5-25-4.1.24-2Figure4-2causalmodelofEmergency4-21)2)3)4)5)-26-4.1.34-3Figure4-3DiffusionmodelofEmergency4-34.2-27-4.2.1{}}{//}4-4Figure4-4Energyvectormodel-28-X4.2.24-5Figure4-5DynamicmodelofEmergencyDiffusioninSupplyChain-29-104.3//-30-55.1V0V1V2VnA0A1A2An-1L0L1L2Ln-15-1Figure5-1supplychain--Linear5-1iA5-1VAnV5-10V0A0A1V1A1A2V2AnV1nA−0V0A1ViliV1iV+il1iV+1iV+iliViAiA1iV+0V1V0l-31-5.1.1V0V1ViVi+1A0A1