不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能

MPA专业学位论文不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响摘要人口老龄化是全球性问题，伴随着人口老龄化问题的愈演愈烈，辽宁省的城镇职工养老保险基金亦面临着巨大的收支压力，收支失衡已经显现。本研究以系统动力学理论为基础，借助AnyLogic6.4.1软件预测辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金收支变化趋势，并探讨延迟退休年龄的各种政策选择对其支付能力的可能影响。研究发现，现行政策不变的情况下，养老保险基金到2024年基金累计余额将出现负值，到2054年基金缺口问题越来越严重，将达到-88919.71亿元。通过6项优化实验预测了不同退休年龄方案对辽宁省养老保险金支付能力的影响。分别选择从2015年和2020年开始，每2年延一岁，利用20年的时间将女性退休年龄延迟到60岁；在上述方案基础上，分别探讨了每2年和每3年延一岁，用10年或15年的时间，将男女退休年龄延迟到同为65岁，并保持不变。实验结果表明，上述方案均能起到减小养老金缺口的积极作用，其中。同时，研究发现，延迟退休年龄的方案不同，对养老金缺口的影响也就不同，延迟退休年龄的时间设定的越早，延迟速度越快，对缓解养老金的支付压力越有效。根据优化实验的预测结果，提出了从采取“小步渐进”方式，适度提高女职工退休年龄、采用弹性退休制度以及合理选择延迟退休年龄实施时机等几个方面的对策建议。关键词：延迟退休年龄；系统动力学；职工基本养老保险基金MPA专业学位论文不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响ResearchontheDifferentEffectsofDelayingRetirementAgeontheAbilitytoPaytheBasicPensionInsuranceFundofLiaoningProvinceAbstractPopulationagingisaglobalproblem,alongwithanagingpopulationgrowing,thebasicpensioninsurancefundinLiaoningProvinceisalsofacinghugepressuretobalance,andbalanceofpaymentsimbalanceshavebeenrevealed.Thisstudybasedonsystemdynamicstheory,withtheaidofAnyLogic6.4.1topredictthetrendsofbasicpensioninsurancefundinLiaoningProvince,anddiscussesvariouspolicyoptionstodelayretirementagemayaffectitsabilitytopay.Studieshavefoundthatifthecurrentpolicyunchanged,thebalanceofendowmentinsurancefundin2024tofundtheaccumulativenegative,andthefundgapproblemwillbemoreandmoreserious,in2054,itwillreach8.891971trillion.Inthispaper,6optimizationexperimentsrevealedthatdifferentretirementagehasthedifferentimpactontheendowmentinsurancegoldtopayabilityofLiaoningProvince.Choosestartingin2015and2020,respectively,each2yearsofage,with20yearsoftimewilldelayretirementageto60,andthenrespectivelyineachoptimizationexperimentonthebasisofabove,respectivelydiscussestheevery2yearsand3yearsofage,with10yearsor15yearsoftime,willdelaytheretirementageformenandwomenwithfor65years,andremainsthesame,theexperimentwereplayedthepositiveroleofreducingpensiongap.Atthesametime,wecanalsofind,delayretirementage,thepensiongapalsoisdifferent,theinfluenceoftimedelayretirementagesetbytheearlier,thefasterthelatency,toalleviatethepressureofthepensionpaymentthemoreeffectiveFinally,accordingtothepredictiveresultsoftheoptimizationexperiment,inthispaper,fromtakingsmallstepsprogressiveapproach,moderatelyincreasingfemaleworkerretirementage,adoptingaflexibleretirementsystemandareasonableopportunitytochoosetodelaytheretirementageandotheraspectsoftheimplementationofcountermeasurestocopewithpopulationaging,reducingthepensionfundgap.Kewords：postponeretirementage;Systemdynamic;thebasicpensioninsurancefundMPA专业学位论文不同延迟退休方案对辽宁省职工基本养老保险基金支付能力的影响目录独创性声明................................................................................................错误!未定义书签。摘要........................................................................................................................................IAbstract....................................................................................................................................II第一章绪论.........................................................................................................................1一、研究背景........................................................................................................................................1二、研究目的和意义............................................................................................................................1（一）研究目的............................................................................................................................1（二）研究意义............................................................................................................................2三、文献综述........................................................................................................................................2（一）相关概念界定....................................................................................................................2（二）国内关于调整退休年龄的研究综述................................................................................3（三）国外关于调整退休年龄的研究综述................................................................................7（四）小结....................................................................................................................................7四、研究内容、思路、方法和创新点................................................................................................8（一）研究内容............................................................................................................................8（二）研究思路............................................................................................................................8（三）研究方法............................................................................................................................9（四）创新点................................................................................................................................9第二章理论基础与研究设计...............................................................................................