世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析

2010年第9期世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析*程伟在世界金融危机的打击之下,俄罗斯经济遭受重创,突出地表现为经济增长大幅下滑但是,俄罗斯的通胀率失业率国际收支等指标表现尚好,宏观经济继续处在整体可控状态正反两方面的结果与俄罗斯反危机有所取舍的目标追求以及相应的政策安排直接相关,其反危机的实践基本达到了预期设想值得引起特别关注的是,俄罗斯在反思教训的过程中并没有局限于外部因素负面影响的总结,而是空前理性地解析了自身的原料经济发展模式,进而明确提出了创新现代化道路的时代任务俄罗斯目前正借助世界金融危机的!倒逼∀机制,把反危机与现代化有机地衔接起来,实施反危机的过渡性退出与创新现代化道路的战略性进入在今后的十年中,无论俄罗斯经济发展的宏观构想还是具体政策与措施,必将发生深刻的变化金融危机;俄罗斯表现;反危机政策程伟,辽宁大学国际关系学院教授,辽宁大学校长(沈阳邮编:110036)D80A1006-9550(2010)09-0121-11*#∃,%121%国际政治经济学2008,,,,2009,,,,???2009,2008,2009,,2009-2.2%,2030,?()1(GDP)(:%)200520062007200820096.4%7.7%8.1%5.6%-7.9%:!∀#!∀∃%∃!∃!&∋#!∀∋(∋)∗+!#2009,−!∃)%./!%01+-2#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!62009)∗9,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!,:(GDP),6.95%,2009,7.9%,,2009%122%世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析2010年第9期22009(:%)-2.7%8.7%-5.4%5.4%-5.3%-7.9%-4.4%-2.4%-0.7%-5.1%::#2010∃,:2009,2952,2009,2,!∀,8.7%5.4%,,0.7%,,!∀,,!∀()!∀()!∀,(),,1991,!∀,!∀,,,!∀,,2008,1997,,,,2008,2009,,,2009,,,1.1%,1.9%,&,,20097.9%,11.8%,17%,%123%&,−!∃)%./!%01+-2#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!62009)∗9,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!.:1.2%,1.9%&,,,,,,3:320052006200720082009(%)10.99.011.913.38.8(%)7.37.05.97.18.4()18223037478842714390:!∀#!∀∃%∃!∃!&∋#!∀∋(∋)∗+!#2009,−!∃)%./!%01+-2#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!62009)∗9,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!,:!∀,2070!∀,,,,,2009,:,2009,%124%世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析&,−!∃)%./!%01+-2#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!62009)∗9,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!.期,,,,,,,,2009,20:1997,,;2008,,,,(),,,:,,2030,,,,,(G20),,2070!∀,!∀,!∀,,,:,,,,,!∀!∀,,20%125%60-70!∀,,2080!∀,90!∀,!∀,,,,(),:,20092.4(4),800,5600,,,,,,,,200910(6%&),42009(:10)2244.02412.01625.81734.9593.7652.6280.0280.024.524.5:;.:%9:#+3!&∋#%7=0!∃!#%2009)∗%::∋(∗9#4!5!3!3∗∋4+!5%/!∋∀,;=42#+3!#!2010(2)∃4.9,!∀4%126%世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析&,−!∃)%./!%01+-2#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!62009)∗9,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!,期,20092.412,!∀!∀2.388,99%,!∀!(/!%01+%7=∗∗∋4(#%+%∋0∋+!?)∀,,!∀!∀,,,,,,,,,,,:,,2009,:,;,2009,,,20102009,,200999,#,!∃;1030,#∃;1112,2009;201011,#2010∃,2010,,%127%()11:;;,;,,,,1991-1997,,!∀,,,,,,:!,20∀;&!∋∋,∀(,,,,,()!∀,,2003516825%128%世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析&(≅3!∃4!∀:∋∗6∋∗∋6:!7,6=∋4∋∗!Α∃∋+)4%Β!&∋#!∀∃&∋∃6∃4∋&∋=4∋∗∃%6!∃∋073!=4∋∗=4!+!3%∃∋01#)−Χ∋∃6%∃21#∃7−472009)Δ0%+!∋8∋∗∋4%01+39Α−4%+!?!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!12+7−472009).期#∃,,,!∀,!(+∋41∋6%72#+3!#%)∀&,,(200828,,#2020∃,,!∀:!∋∋,,,,∀),,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(3%∃∋4!+#!∀#%=!∃%0)%129%&():#!∀∃,#∃,20041-2,16-17:#∃,#∃,20091,39-40[],:#∃,:2008,676-677,&,,,!∀,;,(),,20102009,4643,(,2330,,,3.1%,363,,2009,1950,,,!,,∀)∗∗,!,,2012,,,,,∀+,,2010-2012,,;,,,7-8,2020,%130%世界金融危机中俄罗斯的经济表现及其反危机政策评析&()+,,(),:∃,:!+!∃∋4∃62#+3!&∋#)4%56!∃!7!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!.!∋8∋∗∋4%01+39Α−4%+!?!∀#∀8∋∗∋4%/!!12+7−472009),Α∃∋+)4%Β!&∋#!∀∃&∋∃6∃4∋&∋=4∋∗∃%6!∃∋073!=4∋∗=4!+!3%∃∋01#)−Χ∋∃6%∃21#∃7−472009),期!(Ε3!!7=3∗∋4+!5%/!!!∃∋.+!&∋#394%56!∃!?)∀,,,,(2+∋4)2ΒΒ∋#∃!6+∃1)(2+∋4)−∋4∋(∋+!∋)(4%54%−∃#%+6.6!∗6∃=0!6%),,,,2010-2012,1/3,2010449,180&,,,(,300),(WTO),,!WTO,∀(,WTO:,,,,,!∀,2-3,,,2020,,,[收稿日期:20100511][修回日期:10100725][责任编辑:赵远良]%131%&(Φ%∃17+%Γ#6%:Δ&∋0,#+!,0!∃∋4%∃94%:Δ4%6!∃∋01∃69∃6∋4∗!0=0%+=4!6%∃!5%/!!+%2010-2012)∗.!∀#%7)%5∋∃%∃10∗∋#%−472009),Α∃∋+)4%Β!&∋#!∀∃&Η∃6∃4∋&∋=4∋∗∃%6!∃∋073!=4∋∗=4!+!3%∃∋01#)−Χ∋∃6%∃21#∃7−472009)∗%,−and,homogeneous−ofsomeconcepts.Conceptisoneofthemainsourcesofalliancesoftpower,andplaysacriticalroleinexertingthealliance−ssoftpower.Furthermore,alliancewillregarditselfasthedefenderofsomespecificconcepts.KeyWordsconcep,talliance,allianceformation,alliancemaintenance,alliancesoftpowerAuthorZhangJingquan,Professor,SupervisorofPh.D.Candidate,InstituteofInternationalPolitics,AcademyofNortheastAsiaStudiesinJilinUniversity.Russia−sEconomicPerformanceintheWorldFinancialCrisisandItsAnti-crisisPolicyChengWei(121)AbstractAttackedbytheworldfinancialcrisis,Russianeconomysufferedheavyloss,withadramaticslumpinitseconomicgrowth.However,theindicatorsofinflationrate,unemploymentrate,andinternationalbalanceofpaymentarestillsound.Russianmacroeconomyisstillundercontro.lTheseprosandconsofeconomicperformancearethedirectresultofthegovernment−strade-offgoalsinanti-crisisanditscorrespondingpolicyarrangements.Whenreflectingthelessons,Russiawasnotlimitedtosumupthenegativeimpactsofexternalfactors,butrationallyanalyzeditsrawmaterial-orienteddevelopmentpatternandclearlyputforwardthetasktoinnovativelypursuethemodernizationpath.Inthenextdecade,profoundchangeswilloccureitherinthemacroconceptofRussia−seconomicdevelopmentorinthespecificpoliciesandmeasures.KeyWordsfinancialcrisis,Russia−sperformance,anti-crisispolicyAuthorChengWe,ithePresidentofLiaoningUniversityandtheProfe