东京国际金融中心地位的崛起和衰退及其启示

上海交通大学硕士学位论文东京国际金融中心地位的崛起和衰退及其启示姓名：倪权生申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：潘英丽200901012080809080208019802006TOPSISTOPSISTHEASCENTANDDECLINEOFTOKYOASANINTERNATIONALFINANCIALCENTERANDITSENGLIGHTENMENTSABSTRACTIntheprocessofeconomicglobalization,itismoreandmoreimportantforacountrytoimproveitsstatusintheinternationalfinancialsystem,especiallyfortheeconomicgiants.Sohavinganinternationalorglobalinternationalfinancialcenterhelpsacountryhavegreatervoice.Firstly,thisrequiresaclearunderstandingoftheinternationalfinancialcenters.ItisacknowledgedthatLondon,NewYorkandTokyoisthelargestinternationalfinancialcentersintheworld.Londonisandold-linefinancialcenter,NewYorkgrewupaftertheWorldWar2,whileTokyogrewupquicklyduringthe1980s,andthenbecameaglobalfinancialcenter.Butatthebeginningof1990s,thebubbleeconomybrokeup,andabigshockwasbroughttoTokyosfinancialmarket,stockpricesslumped,banksfellintotrouble,andtheeconomicofJapanstoppedgrowingforalongtime.JapanabutsChina,andthetwocountrieshaveaconsanguineousrelationshipineconomy.ThesituationinChinanowissimilartowhathappenedinJapanduring1980s.Theyarebothcountrieswithhugeinternationaltrade,bothhavecontinuedtradesurplus,andhavehugeforeignexchangereserve.Also,similarlytoTokyointhe1980s,itshighlyexpectedthatShanghaishouldbecomeaninternationalfinancialcenter.SoitissignificativeforustohaveadeepresearchontheascentanddeclineofTokyoasaninternationalfinancialcenter.ButtherearenotrelatedresearchesonthedevelopmentofTokyoasaninternationalfinancialcenter.Thoughtherearemanyresearchesonthebubbleeconomy,mostofthemfocusonthecauseofthebubble.Evensomeresearchesfocusontheinfluenceofthebubblesbreakingup;theyonlyanalyzetheinfluenceonstockmarketandrealestatemarket.WhathavehappenedontheTokyofinancialmarketbeforeandafterthecrisis?HowdidthestatusofTokyointernationalfinancialcenterchange?WhatarethecausesoftheascentanddeclineofTokyoasaninternationalfinancialcenter?Forsolvingthesequestions,wefirstlyanalyzethetheoryofinternationalfinancialcenter,thenweinferthefactorsthateffecttheforminganddevelopmentofinternationalfinancialcenter.Thenwebuildupaseriesofvariablesthatmeasurethedevelopmentlevelofinternationalfinancialcenter.Basedonthetheoreticanalysis,wedescribetheTokyofinancialmarketroundly.Weexplaintheprocessofascentanddeclinebasedonthedata.ThenweuseTOPSISmodeltoestimatethestatusofTokyofinancialcenter.WealsotrytofindthefactorsthateffectthedevelopmentofTokyofinancialcenterbasedoncointegrationanalysisanderrorcorrectionmechanism.FinallywetrytofindthecausesoftheascentanddeclineofTokyofinancialcenter,andoffersuggestionsfortheconstructionofShanghaitobeaninternationalfinancialcenter.KEYWORDSTokyofinancialmarket,internationalfinancialcenter,bubbleeconomyofJapan,TOPSISmodel,cointegrationanalysis31308019802006421,Fanno1933,Powell1915,,,,Kingdleberger1974:KingdlebergerPark1982a,1982b,1989,Davis1990,,Gehrig1998Hepworth1991CobbCorkhil1996Hampton1995RsitoLaulajainen1998Reed198119001980195519802080511Thrift1987Reed1986Choi1970198030014Poon2003543DufeyGiddy1978Choiet.al1996Walter1998Montes1999Lee2001Sagaram2005Reed1981Choi1986Poon2003Sagaram2005Reed19801900-1975Eken1984Shinohoma1986Suzuki1989Rimmer19862200120022003,200420066200120022003199820002005519962003200320043Reed198073TOPSISTOPSIS844198020061500Reed19801981Choi19861996ReedChoi2198020061996199393Reed1980Poon2003Choi19861996Reed1980Poon200334480510141KindelBegrer1974Veorn1960199180Park2002112LelandPyle1977DiamondDybvig1983AllenSantomero19983ClarkKuzenetsHoffmann19601241998570%GDP5910310213119.171880%70%18142212080169731997157050420901965196820802003162003519923840208045%19891124241761/320059%90%5060187031Reed19811983Reed,1900-1980809Reed/19/20802080——Reed1983162080/////20200367010010061001002001000200200200320052007200721-14211-1GDP22(ROA)(ROE)()-231980-200611980190140002-11991517.89%2-11981-200619811986199119962001200610,83612,14114,26113,88012,2909,830()373.58407.31511.88469.67393.62357.85(2005)12090“500”802580UFJ70198290——1998219187819484——19331934——268TSE80701991JASDAQJapaneseSecuritiesDealersAutomatedQuotationJASDAQNASDAQ2-22007JASDAQJASDAQ97623891062()13.4483.8325.9()10.8705.229.9JASDAQ197527520707080%75%70803“28”“”CDCPFBTB——701985197111988613490%“”10295TOCOMTGE198419511952198219841952TSE1989TIFFE21708060208070-80195260301968196510197065711%607070197311.3%1973101947107080%75%7019778019718[]19651993517136311971121973219732708019781119795101982419836198452940198452919842-270320510152025196819701972197419761978198019821984198619881990100millionyen2-2Fig.2-2AmountsOutstandingintheCallMoneyMarket280701973198290.4%21.5%33.5%17.9%19803.58231945-200420061393301002003004005006007001977197919811983198519871989199