供应链管理中的预测与协调问题研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文供应链管理中的预测与协调问题研究姓名：徐涛申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计指导教师：胡奕明20090524THESTUDIESOFFORECASTANDCOORDINATIONPROBLEMSINSUPPLYCHAINMANAGEMENTABSTRACTThispaperonsupplychainmanagementofforecastandcoordinationraisesboththeoreticalandpracticalissuesanddiscussesthesolutionsapproachforthem.Withthedevelopmentofthetechnology,thecompetitionwillbeexistedamongthedifferentsupplychainsinsteadofthedifferentcompanies.Basedonthesupplychainmanagementconcept,thispaperdiscussesthedetailsabouttheforecastandcoordinationwiththeworkingpracticeexperience.Thefirstpartofthispaperprovidesthestrategicframeworkofthesupplychainmanagement,explainsthesignificanceofforecastandcoordinationintheoreticalarea.Thefollowingpartdescribesthebasicmodels/methodologiestotheforecastonhistoricaldemanddata.Itshowsthatthesufficientcoordinationleadstoanefficientwaytothesupplychainsystem.WiththecasestudyofSiemensShanghaiMobileCommunicationsLimitedcompanysupplychainhistory,thispaperanalyticallyexaminestheimprovementofsupplychaincoordinationthroughmoreeffectiveinformationexchangeandconsistentforecast.Thediscussionalsoincludesthevariousobstaclesthatfacedbyindustrialusersthroughsupplychain,italsodisplaysthenegativefactorswhichimpactthecoordinationofsupplychainandtherelatedsolutionsviabothpracticeandtheory.KEYWORDS:Supplychain;Supplychainmanagement;Forecast;coordination;Bullwhipeffect;MPAcc1of5011111,,,,,,,,,,MPAcc2of5012,3112pushprocesspullprocessMPAcc3of5012121MPAcc4of50122MPAcc5of5021JITMPAcc6of50211MPAcc7of50212,MPAcc8of5021322MPAcc9of50221pushprocesspullprocessPushProcessPullProcessPushProcessPullProcessMPAcc10of50222rubbishin,rubbishout15%20%MPAcc11of50ForecastAccuracy-50%-30%-10%10%30%50%Jan.08Feb.08Mar.08Apr.08May.08Jun.08Jul.08Aug.08Sep.08Oct.08Nov.08Dec.08MonthAccuracy2MPAcc12of50223224MPAcc13of50qualitativetimeseriescausalsimulation12AiinnMAt=∑=ni1Ai3FttAttSttFt=(1-)Ft-1+At-10.1~0.54St-1Tt-1St-1=At+(1-)(St-1+Tt-1)TtTt=(St-St-1)+(1-)Tt-10.1~0.5FtSt-1Tt-1:Ft=St-1+Tt-15ItttAiL11217AIt=At/ÃÃ=A1+A2++AL/LtSt=At/It-L+(1-)St-1MPAcc14of50It=At/St+(1-)It-L,,0.1~0.56Ft+1=(St+Tt)It-L+1St=At/It-L+(1-)(St-1+Tt-1)Tt=(St-St-1)+(1-)Tt-1It=At/St+(1-)It-L23231CouncilofSupplyChainManagementProfessionals600MPAcc15of50232MPAcc16of50(Power)MPAcc17of50233MPAcc18of50234MPAcc19of5024112MPAcc20of5031SSMC19935GSMW-CDMATD-SCDMA2634321997GSMGSM2G141003000(MRP)2000RLC(RegionalLogisticCenter)RLCMPAcc21of50RLC(OnTimeDelivery)1022002VendorManagementInventoryVMIKaitherinKaitherinKaitherinKaitherinKaitherinKaitherin20%100%VMIMPAcc22of502004KANBAN80JIT(MakeToStock)(MakeToOrder)MTSMTOGlobalCrossSupplyPlan33MPAcc23of50MPAcc24of5041411MPAcc25of50SAP412tDtEtAtMSEtMADt%MAPEtTSt113,12913585456456207936456.003.363.361.00225,124276922568256834012801512.009.276.322.00330,338350034665466595215952563.0013.338.653.00422,030248602830283091434212629.7511.389.344.00516,147173611214121476094962346.606.998.875.00614,8581580995195164919802114.006.028.396.00710,474123421868186860630442078.8615.149.357.00810,898125471649164956450632025.1313.149.838.0096,9396245(694)69450713491877.2211.119.978.261015,39415299(95)9545651171699.000.629.049.071111,2149437(1777)177744371721706.0918.839.937.99129,8311059576476441160491627.587.219.708.85MPAcc26of50L4=(D1+D2+D3+D4)/4;Ft=Lt-1tDtLtFtEtAtMSEtMADt%MAPEtTSt11312922512433033842203022655.2551614723409.7522655.2565086508.2542357318650840401.0061485820843.2523409.7585528551.7557744873753058492.0071047415877.2520843.251036910369.2574337031847699663.0081089813094.2515877.2549794979.2561951006760246614.009693910792.2513094.2561556155.2557138225731389665.00101539410926.2510792.25(4602)4601.7551144538686130604.66111121411111.2510926.25(288)287.754385000459223525.3512983110844.511111.2512801280.2538573634534213476.17L0=∑=ni1(D1+D2++Dn)/n;Ft=Lt-1tDtLtFtEtAtMSEtMADt%MAPEtTSt0155311131291529115531240224025771205240218181.002251241627415291(9833)98335122856461183929(1.21)3303381768116274(14064)1406410008075187664635(2.45)4220301811617681(4349)43497978955576622031(3.37)5161471791918116196919696460678165231227(3.66)6148581761317919306130615540040959462126(3.50)7104741689917613713971395476626961176832(2.24)8108981629916899600160015242176861025535(1.26)96939153631629993609360563310476464135460.2610153941536615363(31)315069804058210410.28111121414951153664152415247656253566937411.0212983114439149515120512045869194562352421.94MPAcc27of50HoltL0T0tDtLtTtFtEtAtMSEtMADt%MAPEtTSt023751-126511312921550-145222486935793578755344993577171.271.0022512420601-135220098(5026)50265640625871912045.640.6033033820358-113019249(11089)110897859192084913742.61-0.8042203019508-107419228(2802)28026090651270681335.14-1.3551614718206-112018435228822884977177661121430.94-1.1961485816863-116417086222822284230397754651528.28-0.9271047415177-126915699522552254016105654315031.370.0381089813607-132913908301030103627352751282830.900.629693911744-143612278533953393541067651527736.021.66101539410817-133410309(5085)50853445560551453335.720.6711112149656-12999483(1731)17313159556548351533.880.351298318505-12708357(1474)147429143630455