中国保险业的历史与未来：一个制度变迁视角

:2000-03-02:(1975.8-),,,,,520006(240)JournalofFinancialResearchNo.6,2000GeneralNo.239:(,200083):,,,,,,WTO:;;;:F841.9:A:1002-7246(2000)06-0097-108,,20,1979,,19804.6,19991393.22,20302.87,(A.H.Maslow:ATheoryofHumanMotivation,1943),,1979?19581979,19661976,19581966,?,?,,79,,(D,1981,,,1991),(),,(,1998,6),(),:,,;(),(),,,(),(1998,3578)()U,I,C,:U=U(I,C),,:5U5I05U5C0,,,m;,,n,n,nI=I(m,…n)C=C(m,…n),,,,;,,,,5I5m05C5m0U=U[I(m,…n),C(m,…n)]:89maxU=U[I(m,…n),C(m,…n)]5U5m=5U5I5I5m+5U5C5C5m=0m0%,100%,m[0%,100%],U(I,C)I(m,n)C(m,n),U(I,C),maxU,:5U5I5I5m05U5C5C5m05U5m=0,(0%,100%)(,,,)maxU=U[I(m3,…n),C(m3,…n)]m3=F(…n)n,,,5m35…n0,,(),,nm3,,,,1979,,,,1979:1979,,,,n,m3,;197999,n,,m3,1.19491979:19491020,,,,1956,,,,,,,m3U,,,1952,1300,,,,,,,,GDP,(),,,1952,19531954,,,,,:,001:58,1999,19893,,,(),,1952,41.5%,3.3%,4%,51.2%,195667.5%,32.5%,,,(1958):1958,1979,20,m3100%,()()(),,,m3,U:,,,,,;,,,,C,,,,2.1979:,,,,(,1998,47),1979,20,(,1998,47),,(),,,19794,,1980101:(38),1979,,C,,,,70,1958m3,,,,,36%(),19801999302.871999,8745,172892,1986,50%,,GDP,,,,1999,4,9,1719871996,10,(,),:,,201,,,,,,,(,1998,48)GDPGDP,,,,,n,m3,,(n),,19951987,,,n,,,,I(m,n)C(m,n),,5I5m5C5m,,,,:(),()(self-insurance),,,M2/GDP,,,,,(),,,;,,,1987,301::,19984(M2/GDP)(%)(/GDP)()(/)19850.5800.373.1719860.6590.454.3319870.6960.596.6219880.6770.7310.0519890.7070.8412.8919900.8250.9615.7619910.8951.1120.9319920.9541.4232.7119931.0071.5245.0319941.0041.3552.5719951.0391.1756.3919961.1211.1463.4019971.2171.4487.3619981.3141.57100.89:,:,n,,m3;,nm3,,(),,,1983,1985,1995,1996:,199811,,1.:,,,50,8090,19981118,,,401,,,,,1979,,1995101,,,1996725200031,;5,2.:,,,,:,,,,,,,;,,BinKe,KathyR.PetroniDouglasA.Shackelford(1999)1993-1995(Self-Insurance)(StateTaxes)(1%,0.18%),,199711,,,,,104,,,,,,1/3;199528.6%,,,3.:,,,,501,19995189:28:,2000310,,,,,,4.:,,(WTO)1021997WTO,,1999,WTO,,5,;5,;,50%,,;,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,;,,,,,,,1979,:,,,,,,,,11978-1998,19982I(),19973,19984,19995M,19906016,199997,199948:,199849,19994310,199811,199912,1998131999114-16()14BinKe,KathyR.Petroni,Douglas,A.ShackelfordTheImpactofStateTaxesonSelflnsurance,NBER(NationalBureauofEco2nomicResearch)()WorkingPaper7453,December199915DaronAcemoglu,RobertShimerEfficientUnemploymentInsurance,NBERWorkingpaperNo.W6686,August199816DouglasHoltz-Eakin,JohnW.Phillips,HarveyS.RosenEstateTaxes,LifeInsurance,andSmallBusiness,NBERWorkingPa2perNo.W7360,September1999Abstract:ThepaperperformsresearchesontheevolutionofChinainsurancesystemfrom1949to1999andforecaststhefutureofthisindustrywithintheframeofNewInstitutionalEconomics.Thegovernment,whichissubjecttotheStateUtilityFunction,playsanimprotantroleintheevolutionofChinainsurancesystem.Theinsurancearrangementsmonopolizedbythecentralgovernmentdomi2natesbefore1979,thereafter,withtheReformingandOpeningUpPolicy,thegovernmentretreatsgraduallyfromtheownershipoftheinsuranceinstitutions.Thegiveninsurancearrangementisthee2quilibriumofthegamewhichthedifferentkindsofownerstakepartin.KeyWords:Insurance,InstitutionalChanges,StateUtilityFunction,MonopolizingInsuranceAr2rangement,InsuranceRestraint(:)701