中国房地产周期与金融稳定

meiziwen
4 ℃
2019-04-24

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119981992-20042004()9030(buildingcycles)19801990211992-2004(1)21978-19911985198819891992-1997199219921993199319962.1%1997(-1.2%)()199819981998(1)1998-5005010015020086889092949698000204(%)(%)31199819781978-877.4%0.741988-976.1%0.611998-048.41%1.21019982003GDP1000219981)19982004791005GDP1.522)(23)4-20-15-10-505109092949698000204(%)04000800012000160002000098990001020304()(2005)()200318.3%2004423.2%20041-11222200313.5%15012.8%70200511000/547.6%73%11000/2.83.1(2005)3119971998199920002001200220032004(1)2GDP(GDP)20205GDP62(GDP)()()1CEIC1992120044(2)g_housinvestg_salesrealrateCPI2()7g_housinvestI(1)g_salesI(1)housloanI(2)devploanI(2)longloanI(2)totaloanI(1)totalratio+/I(1)realrateI(1)reerI(1)shstockI(1)199411()Dummy19941110GDP2(2)2PcGets(tDWR2)38g_housinvest)g_housinvest-cpi))Constant--0.09674(-4.279)reer-0.01295(-1.717)-0.02284(-3.026)reer_2-0.02694(-3.502)-0.02927(-3.810)realrate_10.03437(3.401)0.04581(4.539)totalratio0.06976(2.063)0.14236(3.607)totalratio_1-0.07020(1.784)dummy-0.51780(-4.101)-0.62347(-4.877)R20.523010.68163R20.481530.63822DW1.982.111992Q2-2004Q41992Q2-2004Q4316R248%64%115.2(reerreer_2)199419981998214.5893121.3462.31)19982)1993()1()199810200511.5%()()200417%20%()32()()70%2004828.372000-200281.2%20(2005)3()19982.9%200210%20041113.5%(4)30-55%40500010000150002000025000246810121498990001020304()(%)41998(5)()80%0200004000060000800009092949698000204()12(20057)562001200440%1997()80%7200436%0.200.250.300.350.4098990001020304130.100.150.200.250.300.350.40989900010203042()314()187137(2002)(1950-2000)(2005)2005(2005)20054(2005)2004CEICDavis,EPhilipandHaibinZhu(2004),“BankLendingandCommercialPropertyCycles:SomeCross-CountryEvidence”,BISWorkingPapersNo.150.Helbling,ThomasF(2003),“HousingPriceBubbles-ATaleBasedonHousingPriceBoomsandBusts”,ThispaperdrawsonChapterIIoftheApril2003WorldEconomicOutlook(IMF(2003)).Herring,RichardandSusanWachter(2002),“BubblesinRealEstateMarkets”,Zell/LurieRealEstateCenterWorkingPaper402,March2002.Koh,WinstonT.H.,RobertoS.Mariano,AndreyPavlov,SockYongPhang,AugustineH.H.Tan,andSusanM.Wachter(2004),“BankLendingandRealEstateinAsia:MarketOptimismandAssetBubbles”,ForthcominginJournalofAsianEconomics.Quigley,JohnM(2001),“RealEstateandtheAsianCrisis”,ProgramonHousingandUrbanPolicyWorkingPaperSeriesWorkingNo.W99-008.