中国的财政部门的Deutsche银行中国专家的系列A一年的外型(1)

AsiaPacificChinaMacroStrategy28July2004DeutscheBankChinaExpertSeriesAone-yearoutlookforChina’sfinancialsectorThefollowingpresentationwasdeliveredataDeutscheBankeventinJune2004byDrStephenGreen,HeadoftheAsiaProgrammeatChathamHouse.Theopinionscontainedinthisreportarethoseoftheauthor,notDeutscheBankAG.StephenGreenChathamHouseForfurtherdetailspleasecontact:DrStephenGreenRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairsatChathamHouseJingUlrich(852)[e-mail](852)[e-mail]eBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1EconomicdataChina03A04F05FGDP(%)9.19.08.4Export(%)32.524.616.0CPI(%)1.23.02.0M2(%)19.618.518.0Unemployment(%)4.44.74.5Source:DeutscheBankAGestimatesChina’sfinancialsectorisbankheavy050100150200ProportionofGDPin2001,%ChinaUSABankassetsStockmarketcapitalisationBondsissuedSource:ChathamHouseControloflistedcompaniesontheShanghaiStockExchange(2002)State-ownedenterprise78.05%Collective3.02%Privateenterprise15.09%Socialorganisation1.10%Foreignenterprise1.23%Unclear1.51%Source:ShanghaiStockExchange,ChathamHouseRelatedrecentresearchDateChinaExpertSeries-FinancialrisksintheChineseeconomy12July2004DrNicholasR.Lardy-InstituteforInt'lEconomicsChinaExpertSeries:MakingprofitsinChina'scarmarket7July2004MichaelJ.Dunne-AutomotiveResourcesAsiaChinaExpertSeries-China'sruralsector:futureimplications28June2004ProfessorRobertF.Ash-SOAS,UniversityofLondonTableofcontentsAboutthespeaker............................................Page02DeutscheBankChinaExpertSeries.................Page03Aone-yearoutlookonChina’sfinancialsectorPage04Conclusion........................................................Page10Additionalinformation......................................Page12GlobalEquityResearchStrategyFocusFinancialsector:one-yearoutlookStephenGreendeliveredapresentationonChina’sfinancialsectorataDeutscheBankeventinJune2004.HeaddressestheissuesofChina’sprivatisation,thecountry’sbank-dominatedfinancialsector,therestructuringandlistingofSOEs,variouscasestudiesofprivatisedcompanies,andnewly-formedpropertyrightstransactioncentres.ToprivatiseisgloriousPrivatisationishappeningonahugescaleinChinatoday.Morethan80%ofthesmall-andmedium-sizedfirmshavebeensoldoff.China’sfinancialsystemisalsobank-heavy;thuswhentheeconomyslows,bankswillcomeunderpressurewithnewNPLs.Clearlythereishugepotentialforthestockmarkettobeusedasawayofreiningincapitalforfirms.SOElistingcandecreaseperformanceStudieshaveshownthatwhenanSOElists,itsperformancedeclinesinthethreeyearsafterlisting.Also,banksareincreasinglylendingonacommercialbasisandtheparentSOEhasbeenfindingithardtoraisemoney.But,aswiththecaseofShanghaiYongjiu,privateinvestorsarebuyingaportionofthesharesandgainingcontroloftheentity.BeyondthestockmarketPrivatisationisnotlimitedtothestockmarket;provincesthroughoutthecountryareincreasinglydrawinguplistsofcompaniestheywanttosell.Inaddition,anotherplatformforprivatisationcurrentlybeingsetuparethePropertyRightsTransactionCentres.UnderthewingofSASAC,theywillfacilitatethesalesprocess,asthestockmarkethaslimitedcapacity.Waveofprivatisationsinthenext5-10yearsThereremainspoliticalresistancetoprivatisationandthusweareunlikelytoseetheleadingconglomerategroupsgoprivate.But,overthenext5-10yearswecanexpectawaveofprivatisations,whicharelikelytobemorecompetitive,moretransparentandmoreeffectivethananythingwehaveseeninChina.28July2004MacrostrategyDeutscheBankChinaExpertSeriesPage2DeutscheBankAGAboutthespeakerStephenGreen—RoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairsatChathamHouseDrStephenGreenistheHeadoftheAsiaProgrammeattheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairsatChathamHouseinLondon.HeholdsaFirstClassHonoursdegreefromCambridgeUniversityandaPhDinGovernmentfromtheLondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience.HehasalsostudiedinTaiwan,atFudanUniversityinShanghaiandattheCultureandLanguageUniversityinBeijing.HereadsandspeaksMandarinandhaswrittentwobooks,“China’sStockmarket:AGuide”(ProfileBooks/TheEconomist,2003)and“TheDevelopmentofChina’sStockMarket,1984-02:EquityPoliticsandMarketInstitutions”(RoutledgeCurzon,2004).HisarticleshaveappearedintheFinancialTimes,theSouthChinaMorningPost,andtheAsianWallStreetJournalandheisaregulatorcommentatoronChinaforCNNandtheBBC.HehasalsowrittenpapersonvariousaspectsofcorporateandfinancialreforminChinafortheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD),DeutscheBankandNomura.AtChathamHouseStephenisorganisingprojectsoncorporateandfinancialreforminChina,withafocusonprivatisation,M&Aandforeigninvestmentissues.RecentworkingpapershaveexaminedthelessonsthatChinamightlearnfromprivatisationintheformerSovietbloc,howacquisitionsoflistedcompaniesoccurinChinaandhowimportantinstitutionalreformsareimprovingChina’sstockmarket.Heisalsoworkingonaprojectexamin