中国的金融风险(1)

FinancialRisksintheChineseEconomyNicholasR.LardyInstituteforInternationalEconomicsDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDATTHEENDOFTHEBODYOFTHISRESEARCH.THEOPINIONSCONTAINEDINTHISPRESENTATIONARETHOSEOFTHEAUTHOR,ANDNOTDEUTSCHEBANKAG.DeutscheBankChinaExpertSeriesNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page2TheDeutscheBankChinaExpertSeriescomplementsourin-houseequityresearchbyprovidingindependentinformationfromChinaExpertswhocanbringfirst-handinsightstoourclients.Ourguestspeakersincludeindustryspecialists,leadingacademics,andseniorrepresentativesfrommultinationals.TheseminarsintheChinaExpertSeriescoverabroadspectrumofindustriesaswellasmacroeconomictopics.Wewelcomeyourfeedbackandsuggestions.JingUlrich,[e-mail]·June2004·page3NicholasR.LardyNicholasR.LardyisaSeniorFellowattheInstituteforInternationalEconomicsinWashington,DC.DrLardycametoIIEinMarch2003fromtheBrookingsInstitution,wherehewasaSeniorFellowintheForeignPolicyStudiesProgramfrom1995until2003andservedasInterimDirectorofForeignPolicyStudiesin2001.PriortohisworkatBrookings,DrLardyservedattheUniversityofWashington,wherehewasthedirectoroftheHenryM.JacksonSchoolofInternationalStudiesfrom1991-95.From1997throughthespringof2000,hewasalsotheFrederickFrankAdjunctProfessorofInternationalTradeandFinanceattheYaleUniversitySchoolofManagement.HeisanexpertonAsia,especiallytheChineseeconomy.DrLardyhaswrittennumerousarticlesandbooksontheChineseeconomy.HiscurrentmajorprojectanalysesthestrategicimplicationsofdeepeningChina-Taiwaneconomicrelations.DrLardy’smostrecentbook,IntegratingChinaintotheGlobalEconomy,waspublishedinJanuary2002andexploreswhetherreformsofChina'seconomyanditsforeigntradeandexchangeratesystemsfollowingChina’sWTOentrywillintegrateitmuchmoredeeplyintheworldeconomy.InSeptember1998,hepublishedChina’sUnfinishedEconomicRevolution,astudythatevaluatesthereformofChina'sbankingsystemandmeasurestheeconomicconsequencesofdeferringreforminthestate-ownedsector.DrLardyservesontheBoardofDirectorsandExecutiveCommitteeoftheNationalCommitteeonUnitedStates-ChinaRelations,isamemberoftheCouncilonForeignRelationsandisamemberoftheeditorialboardsofTheChinaQuarterly,theJournalofAsianBusiness,theChinaReview,andtheChinaEconomicReview.HereceivedhisB.A.fromtheUniversityofWisconsinin1968andhisPh.D.fromtheUniversityofMichiganin1975,bothineconomics.NicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page4SummaryShort-TermMacroeconomicOutlook–Expansionaryfinancialenvironmentcreatedunsustainablyfastgrowth–Policytighteninghassinceslowedgrowthofcreditandinvestment–SoftlandingintermsofGDPgrowthisahighprobability–HardlandingintermsofcommoditypricesandprofitabilityquitelikelyProspectsforBankingReform–PostAFCprogressinbankreform–Decliningcreditqualitysincecreditgrowthacceleratedin2002Q4–BankofChinaandChinaConstructionBankrecapitalizationscompared–RisksaccumulatingrapidlyinshareholdingandcitybanksLong-TermFiscalSustainability–Explicitgovernmentdebtismodest–Implicitgovernmentdebtismuchlargerandgrowingrapidly–GovernmentcurrentlypayslittleonmostofitsimplicitobligationsNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page5Increaseinthestockofdomesticandforeigncurrencyloansoutstanding,1998-20030.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.5199819992000200120022003RMBTrillionsDomesticCurrencyDomesticandForeignCurrencySource:People’sBankofChinaNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page6DomesticandforeigncurrencyloansasapercentageofGDP,1998-030%5%10%15%20%25%30%199819992000200120022003PercentofGDPDomesticCurrencyLoans/GDPDomesticandForeignCurrencyLoans/GDPSource:People’sBankofChinaNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page7M2growth,1Q1999-0410%12%14%16%18%20%22%199920002001200220032004Q1Source:People’sBankofChinaNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page8One-yearreallendingrate,February2002-April2004-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%2002.012002.022002.032002.042002.052002.062002.072002.082002.092002.102002.112002.122003.012003.022003.032003.042003.052003.062003.072003.082003.092003.102003.112003.122004.012004.022004.032004.04NominalInterestRate(1-yr.Loan)NominalInterestRate-ChangeinConsumerPriceIndex(NBS)NominalInterestRate-ChangeinCorporateGoodsPriceIndex(PBC)Source:People’sBankofChina,NationalStatisticalBureauNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page9RenminbiRealTrade-WeightedExchangeRateIndex,February2002-May2004828486889092949698100102Feb-02Mar-02Apr-02May-02Jun-02Jul-02Aug-02Sep-02Oct-02Nov-02Dec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Jul-03Aug-03Sep-03Oct-03Nov-03Dec-03Jan-04Feb-04Mar-04Apr-04May-04February2002=100Source:JPMorganNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page10Returnonassetsofstate-ownedcommercialbanks,1985-19970.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.8%1.0%1.2%1.4%1.6%1985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997Source:AlmanacofChina’sBankingandFinanceNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page11Capitaladequacyofstate-ownedcommercialbanks,1985and1995-010%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%19851995199619971998199920002001Source:AlmanacofChina’sBankingandFinanceNicholasR.Lardy·June2004·page12Loansbyfinancialinstitutions,1978-9801,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,00010,000197819791980198119821983198