供应链风险的传递性研究

江苏科技大学硕士学位论文供应链风险的传递性研究姓名：马丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：张光明2008012112摘要I摘要目前供应链中的风险问题已经引起了广泛关注，人们在研究实施供应链管理带来竞争优势的同时也开始将目光投向了供应链中的风险管理领域。本文以供应链风险为研究对象，重点围绕供应链风险的传递性特征展开了研究。文章详细介绍了供应链风险传递性的概念和传递性产生的原因，阐述了风险传递性给供应链造成的危害；探讨了供应链风险传递的过程，将其分为了阈值突变过程和选择性过程；研究了供应链风险的传递载体和传递路径，将传递载体分为资金载体、产品载体和信息载体这三种有形和无形的载体；根据传递方向的不同，将传递路径归纳为单向传递路径和多向传递路径；采用数学方法对供应链风险的传递开展了定量化的研究，从风险的传递概率和传递后果这两方面进行了数学探讨；运用贝叶斯网络对风险的传递概率展开了分析，构建了一个两阶段供应链的风险传递拓扑结构图，并且选取其中一部分的传递路径进行了计算，得出了传递概率；运用模糊综合评判法对风险的传递结果展开了计算，结合风险传递结果和传递概率综合得出昀终的风险值，将风险值与事先设定的风险阈值相比较可以判定出此风险在供应链中传递性的强弱；通过对供应链风险传递性的研究，文章给出了对供应链风险传递的控制措施。关键词：供应链；风险；传递性；贝叶斯网络；模糊综合评判法Abstract4ResearchontransfercharacterofsupplychainrisksAbstractAlongwiththeknowledgeeconomy,thestrategicfellowshipbecomesmoreandmoreimportantunderthedirectionofdynamicandglobalizationcompetition,sotheSupplyChainManagementgetstheadvantageplaceintheenterpriseandtheacademicfieldbecauseofitscapacityofresponse,flexibilityandlowcosting.Especiallyinrecentyears,SCMemphasizesthepartnershipbetweenthecompaniesinsupplychain,whichmakesSCMbeamanagementmethodologyfromanactivitymanagementtool.SupplyChainStrategicAllianceisamodeofenterprisescooperationthattwo.Moreenterprisesestablishacomparativelysteadypartnershiprelationtorealizeresourcesharing,risksharingandcomplementaryadvantages,whicheveryonekeepsone'sownindependentcharacter.However,SupplyChainStrategicAlliancestillimpliessomeunavoidableriskswhenitsharesbenefitmutually.Thenatureofsupplychainmanagementistointegratethecorecompetencyofeverynodeinsupplychainandestablishstrategicpartnershipsbetweencoreenterpriseandeveryotherenterprisetoobtaintotalcompetitiveadvantage.Currently,thedifferentiatesofthesamekindofproductfromdifferentbusinessbecomemoreandmoreminor,thebusinesswhichhasthetechnologyadvantagehasbeenfewer,sothecompetitionisnotbetweentheisolatebusiness,butthesupplychain.Supplychainmanagement,anewmanagementpattern,hasobtainedhugesuccessinsomeenterprises,suchasDell,HP,Haireandsoon.Supplychainmanagementhasbroughtopportunityandcompetitivepowertoenterprises,supplychainmanagementhasbecomeahotspotforscholarssincethe21stcentury.Meanwhile,ithasbroughtmanykindsofnewrisks,andtheseriskshavebiggerdestructivenessthanthoseoftraditionalmanagementpatterns.Thereistightconnectionbetweenthesecompaniesonsupplychain;thereareuncertaintiesineachlevelofsupplychain.Theyarethemaincausesofsupplychainmanagementdifficulties.Duetothecomplexityofthesupplychain,thereexistsgreatrisk.Thesupplychainenterprisesareinterdependent,andmustworkincoordination.Anyproblemthatoccurredinanylinkwouldinfluencetheentiresupplychain.Sothebreakagethatrisksbringtothesecompaniesismoreseverethantocommoncompany.Theriskofonenotecouldinfluenceothernoteinthesupplychain.Itcouldtransmitinthesupplychain,andcouldmakechangeinthisprocess;RippleeffectofriskcouldAbstract5givethissupplychainwhichitwasinandothersupplychainthefatalattack.Supplychainriskhasbecametheimportantobstaclesofsupplychainmanagement,broughttremendousharmtoeachcorporationonsupplychainandholdsbacksupplychainfunctionanddevelopment.SothesupplyChainRiskproblemhasbecametheimportantandobviousoneinsupplychainmanagementandgetmoreandmoreattentions.Theyarenotonlyresearchontheadvantagesofsupplychain,butalsoanalysisthesupplychainrisksmanagement.Thisarticlestudiesthesupplychainrisks,researchdeeplyonthetransfercharacterofsupplychainrisks.Thearticleintroducethedefinitionofrisktransfer,givethereasonthatwhytheriskswilltransferinsupplychain,showthedangerousofriskstransferinsupplychain;analysistheprocessofriskstransfer,divideditintothresholdbreakandchooseprocess;researchtheriskstransfercarrierandriskstransferpaths,dividedtransfercarrierintothreekinds:capital,productandinformation;accordingtothedifferenttransferdirection,concludethetransferpathsintosinglewaypathsandmulti-ways;riskscanbemanagedbyfoundthetransferpathsandtransfercarrier;articlequantitativelydescribesSupplyChainRiskstransferbymathematicmethodfromthetransferprobabilityandtransfercost;applytheBayesianNetworktoanalysisthetransferrisksprobability;setamodelofriskstransferintwonodesupplychain,calculateapartoftransferpath,andgetthetransferprobability;ItevaluatethetransfercostbyemployingFuzzinessComprehensiveEvaluation.Makethetransferprobabilityandtransfercosttogetherandgettheriskvalue.Comparetheriskvaluewiththeriskthresholdcanknowthepowerofriskstransfer;providesomemethodstocontrolriskstransferinSupplyChain.Keywords:supplychain;risk;transfercharacter;BayesianNetwork;FuzzinessComprehensiveEvaluationAbstractIIAbstractNowdays,therisksinsupplychainhasgetbigattentionbymoreandmorepeople,theyarenotonlyresearchontheadvantagesofsupplychain,butalsoanalysisthesupplychainrisksmanagement.Thisarticlestudiesthesupplychainrisks,researchdeeplyonthetransfercharacterofsupplychainrisks.Thearticleintroducethedefinitionofrisktransfer,givethereasonthatwhytheriskswilltransferinsupplychain,showthedangerousofriskstransferinsupplychain;analysistheprocessofriskstransfer,divideditintothresholdbreakandchooseprocess;researchtheriskstransfercarrierandriskstransferpaths,dividedtransf