供应链风险评估

五邑大学硕士学位论文供应链风险评估研究姓名：贾旭光申请学位级别：硕士专业：管理科学与工程指导教师：刘晋20060301200632012090,,Meta.Meta2AbstractSincethe1990's,supplychainmanagement(SCM)hasbeenbecominganimportantwaytostrengthenenterprises'competition.Manyfamousenterprisesalltakethismanagementstyle,suchasGE,CISCO,NIKEandWALMART.SCMcanhelptoreduceproductioncost,givequickresponsetocustomers'needs,makefulluseofexteriorresource,andavoidtheuncertaintyofinvestmentandmanagementinasense.However,SCMhasrisksbecauseofitsstructure.That'stosay,aslongasanyonegoeswrongoranytwocannotjoinwell,theefficiencyandstabilityofSCMwouldbeinfluenced.Inordertogetsatisfiedresults,enterprisesmusttoevaluatesupplychainriskincludingsuppliers’riskandsupplychainoverall-risk.ThensomemeasurescanbetakentoavoidtherisksinSCM.Thisdissertationwasmainlyconcernedwiththesupplychainrisksevaluation,andwasmainlyengagedinresearchonthefieldsoftheprinciplesofbuildingthemetrics,thebuildingofthemetrics,therisksevaluationmodelsandthemethods.Basedonsystematicallyreviewingthestudyofsupplychainrisksandtheexistingshortcoming,thedissertationwasfocusontheevaluationofsuppliers’riskfirstly,theprinciplesofbuildingthemetricswasdiscussed,andanoverallindexeswassettledbasedontheseprincipals,thenamodelbasedonfuzzyintegralisintroducedtoevaluatethesuppliers’risk.Thenthedefinitionofsupplychainoverall-riskswasgivenbasedontheconnectionoftheMaximumMetapathandsupplychainresolution,thearithmeticisgivenatthesametime,thisconstructedasystematicmodeltoevaluatingsupplychainrisksbeforehand.Thecalculatingresultsshowthatitisaveryeffectivequantitativeappraisalmethodbeforethesupplychainhasactuallybeenconstructed.Someofthedetailsofthecurrentimplementationaredrawintheendandconcludewithfutureresearchdirections.Keywords:supplychain;riskmanagement;riskevaluation;Meta-graph311.11.1.1[1][2]10%40%[3]leansupplyjustintimeJIT[4][5][6][7-11]50%-60%[12]200022412%9%[13][8]41.1.2(businesscontinuity)[14]1.21.2.1SupplyChainSC.MichaelPorter208020[15][1][16]5JIT[17]Harrison[1][16]2001GB/T18354-200111611[1]1.2.212080[1][16][18][1][15-16][18-19]EvensPhillipPortmouth2001GB/T18354-2001[15][19]10%15%25%35%10%15%20%[20]27LocationProductionInventoryTransportationCooperation80Suppliers’Choice[12][21]SCStrategicAllianceITTechnologyandDecision-supportingSystem8SCModelingTechnologyHP[22-25]700Supply-ChainCouncilSCCSupplyChainOperationsReference-modelSCOR)[26][27]1.3.[28][8]1231.3.1[5][10][29-39][40-44]11[41]91[8]911[29]22199311210[29][38][8]3[34-38][45][34][35][36][49][38][45]Holmstrom4[46]IT[47][48]IT[49]11IT5(bullwhip)[31][33][30-33][38][38][30][31][32][33][33]6[41][38][30][38][8]1997Toyota12[38]1.3.211[50]2[51][33]3[51][52]AHP[53][54]2[55]13Svensson2002inboundoutbound[56]Svensson[21]12CA/BCA/BABC27425231314CA/B1.3.31[14][39]2VMI[30]VMI3[39]4[57](Just-In-Case)[58]5[48][59]15authenticationaccesscontrolprovacyintegritynon-repudiationdatabackup6[47]1.3.41231.41.4.11216Meta31.4.21212MetaMetaMetaMeta34563454Meta67172Meta2.1MetaMetaVanderbiltA.BasuR.W.Blanning1992[60](Hypergraph)[61-62](AND/ORGraph)[6063-65][66](workflow)[67]2.1.1Meta1[19]{}IixXi,,2,1==XMetaSS=EXS,{}KkeEk,,2,1==EkekkWV,XVk⊆keXWk⊆keMetaMetaMetakVkW2-1Meta},,,{621xxxX=},,,{4321eeeeE==}{},,{5323xxxe32xx3e5x2.1.2Metax3x1x4x5x22-1Metae1e2e3e4x618(Path)2[19]Meta=EXS,XXcb∈,,bc),(cbP==LlfcbPl,,2,1,),(=lllWVf,1Vb∈LWc∈∅≠+llWV∩1bcLb}{\]11\[bLlLllWlV∪∪==c}{\1cLllW∪=41,ee121x6x1x}{4x6x},{53xx1x6x41,ee1x1e4e6x}{4x1e4e6x1x4x2.1.3Meta3[19]Meta=EXS,XXCB⊆,,BCMeta),(CBM},,2,1,{),(LlfCBMl===lllWVf,},,2,1,,|),({RrCcBbcbPrrrrr=∈∈∪RrrrrcbPSetCBM1)),((),(==BLlLllWlV⊆==∪∪11\∪LllWC1=⊆Set(•)Set},,,{),,,(2121kklllllleeeeee=2-1},,{421eee}{1x},{65xxMetaMeta1x421,,eee5x6xMeta),(CBMB),(CBMCMeta3(1)Meta()(2)Meta(3)Meta192.1.4Meta4[19]MetaSAijaixjx∪Kkkijija1)(==α(1)∅∈∈=kjkikjkikkijWxVxexWxV,},{\},{\)(α(2)(1)(2)ijaixjxixjx1ixjx=))((),)((),)(()(****kijkijkijkijaPathaOutaInakixjxk12-1MetaA{}{}{}{}∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅∅=4344323321exexexexeeA3MetaMetaMetaMetaA2.1.5MetaMetaMetaXMetaSTS{}KkEk,,2,1,=T{}LlEl,,2,1,'=MetaMeta{}LKlkEElk,,2,1,,2,1|,'==5[19]XMetaS=XE='',EXS20ABA+BMeta∪',EEXijijijbaBA∪=+)(4MetaMetaMetaMetaSMetaAugS6[19]MetaS=XE′′=′EXS,AA′SS′Meta′∪=EXXSAug,)(5BAugSBSS′B′Aug(S′)S′SBB′∅∈∈=XxXxabjiijij6∅′∈′∈=XxXxabjiijij''7Meta2.1.6Meta7[19]Meta),(CBMCCc∈Bbr∈∀rbMetacMeta)(cM2.2MetaMetaMetaMetaMeta=EXS,c,*ASSMetaS1cXCXCS2XCxi∈(Xii)*A21Xxj∈∃∅≠*jiaixixXCXC\=Xxj∈∀∅=*jiaixS3S3*ica)(*icaPath=)(*icaPath=Llfl,,2,1,=lllWVf,∪LlliwxXCXC1\\==S4*ica)(*icaInS5S5iicxaInB∪=)(*))(()(*icaPathSetcM=)(*icmaInx∈)()(**icimcmaInxaInx∪=∪))(()()(*mcaPathSetcMcM∪=)(*mcaInBB∪=∪LllmwxXCXC′=′′=1\\lw′)(*mcaPathl′)(*icmaInx∈(Mm,,2,1=)BMeta),(cBMS6),(cBMMeta),(cBMMeta),(cBM=)(cMMetaS7XC∅≠XCS2Meta∅=XCMeta2.3Meta2.3.1Meta222-2(a)AB(b)ABC(c)ABCCBFBDEBa(b)(c)(d)(e)2.3.2BOMS1BOM02-3BOM012CPU3ABADCBBACBACBAEDF2-223S2BOM2-4BOM2-4S3BOMBOM2-5S4BOM2-42-1242-1BOM12345678910111213141516S5BOMMetaMeta2-6Meta2.3.3MetaMetaMetaMeta[65][68]MetaMetaMetaMetaMetaMetaMetaMeta253(RiskEvaluationorRiskAssessment)(