关于西太平洋台风气候变异和预测的若干研究进展

316200711ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciencesVol131No16Nov.20072007205230,2007206221406310054062013011340775049,,1964,,,:E2mail:[e-mail],100029,:,,,100629895(2007)0621076206P461ASomeAdvancesintheResearchesoftheWesternNorthPacificTyphoonClimateVariabilityandPredictionWANGHui2Jun,FANKe,SUNJian2Qi,LANGXian2Mei,andLINMei2JingInstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100029AbstractThispaperbrieflyreviewedthestudiesoftherelationshipsbetweenthetyphoonactivityandtheatmos2phericcirculationaswellastheseasurfacetemperatureinthefirstpart.Thentheauthorsintroducedsomenewre2searchresultsabouttheinterannualvariabilityandpredictionofthetyphoonclimate,includingthefrequencyofty2phoongenesisandlandfall,aswellasthetyphoonclimatepredictionbyusingboththenumericalclimatemodelandthedynamical2statisticalmodel.TheseresearchesrelatetheAntarcticoscillation,theNorthPacificoscillation,seaicecoverage,andthermalstateofthewarmpooloverthewesternPacific.Onthepredictionaspect,thepaperintro2ducedthefirstattempttomaketheseasonalpredictionofthetyphoonclimatebyuseoftheclimatemodeldevelopedattheInstituteofAtmosphericPhysics,ChineseAcademyofSciences,andanewdynamical2statisticalmodelforthepredictionofthetyphoonfrequency.KeywordsthewesternNorthPacifictyphoon,interannualvariability,Antarcticoscillation,theNorthPacificos2cillation,climateprediction1,,,,,,1962,[1],,,,,,,,,(),,,[2],,[3],,[4],,,,,,,[5][6],[710],,,,,,,,,[11],,ENSO(QBO)ENSO,,,[1222],,,,,ElNino,,,,LaNinaChan[23,24]ElNinoLaNina,ENSOQBO[25,26],,,,[27],,,,,,,,,,2[28](TNWP)(AAO),AAO40S60S,6977016No16:WANGHui2Junetal.SomeAdvancesintheResearchesoftheWesternNorthPacific...(TNWP)(19491998-0148),,,,,,,,[29]ENSO,,[28](,)ENSO,,[30](NPO)/,,SST;,,2,2,,,/[30](BCM),,SST,,,,;;,,[31],(1212)(345)19652004,-0142-0149(99%),[31],(65N,170E)200hPa,,,(65N,170E),610,610[31]610,140E;610,,,610(1983)[11],140E,,850hPa,,32006,[32]8701ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences31Vol131:,,[32],(IAP2TO2GA),,,,(NCEP),:IAP2TOGA,,()();,,200622228107[32],2006,2006,,,SST,SSTSST,,,,2006,,(),,,,,,,[33],,:X1:NPO;X2:850hPa;X3:850hPa;X4:1000hPa;X5:Nino3.4;X6:;X7:;X8:850hPa;X9:19651999,0.79200020067152016172116151965199917,3195,20002006,200120,200421,,151716161717161619171917162001,3.4,2004113,2006116,,,,20002006,4,/[34,35],:(1),97016No16:WANGHui2Junetal.SomeAdvancesintheResearchesoftheWesternNorthPacific...(2)(3)(4),(5)(References)[1],,..,1962,32(1):91103TaoShiyan,XuShuying,GuoQiyun.Thecharacteristicsofthezonalandmeridionalcirculationovertropicalandsubtrop2icalregionsineasternAsiainsummer.ActaMeteorologicaSinica(inChinese),1962,32(1):91103[2],..,1978,2:174178XuJianmin,GuMeirong.Therelationshipbetweenthecir2culationfeaturesandthetyphoongenesisoverthewesternPacificinsummer.ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences(ScientiaAtmosphericaSinica)(inChinese),1978,2:174178[3],,,..,1963,33(2):217229XieYibing,ChenShoujun,ZhangYiliang,etal.Aprelimi2narilystatisticandsynopticstudyaboutthebasiccurrentso2versoutheasterAsiaandtheinitiationoftyphoons.ActaMe2teorologicaSinica(inChinese),1963,33(2):217229[4],,.10212.,1965,35(3):338342XieYibing,ChenShoujun,GuoXiaorong.LowlatitudeflowpatternsoverSouth2EastAsiaandwesternPacificinthemonthsfromOctobertoDecember.ActaMeteorologicaSini2ca(inChinese),1965,35(3):338342[5],,,..,1977,(1):8998DingYihui,FanHuijun,XueQiufang,etal.Preliminarystudyonthemulti2typhoondevelopmentinthetropicalcon2vergencezone.ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences(ScientiaAtmosphericaSinica)(inChinese),1977,(1):8998[6]..,1965,35(4):476485ChenLianshou.FlowpatternsinwesterliesinrelationtotheEast2Asiatyphoontracks.ActaMeteorologicaSinica(inChinese),1965,35(4):476485[7]..,1956,27(2):8789LiXianzhi.Acomprehensivetheoryforthetyphoongenesis.ActaMeteorologicaSinica(inChinese),1956,27(2):8789[8],,,.ITCZ.,1982,1(2):132139WangZuoshu,HeShixiu,FangZongyi,etal.Aprelimarystudyonthemulti2typhoonoccurrenceontheITCZinthewestPacific.ScientiaMeteorologicaSinica(inChinese),1982,1(2):132139[9],,..,1986,2(3):251256HeShixiu,ZhangBaoyan,FuXiuqin,etal.Relationshipbe2tweenthefrequencyofmidsummertyphoonovernorthwestpacificandtheconditionoflargescalecirculation.JournalofTropicalMeteorology(inChinese),1986,2(3):251256[10]..,1986,4(1):1114LiZengzhong.Preliminarystatisticalanalysisontherelation2shipbetweenthecross2equatorialflowandtheChineseweather.MeteorologicalMonthly(inChinese),1986,4(1):1114[11],ER..,1983,5(5):561574DingYihui,WrightER.ThelargescalecirculationconditionforthewesternPacifictyphoongenesis.ActaOceanologicaSinica(inChinese),1983,5(5):561574[12]..,1982,40(1):2533PanYihang.TheeffectsofthethermalstateofequatorialeasternPacificonthefrequencyoftyphoonsoverwesternPa2cific.ActaMeteorologicaSinica(inChinese),1982,40(1):2533[13]ChanJCL.TropicalcycloneactivityinthenorthwestPacificinrelationtotheElNino/SouthernOscillationphenomenon.Mon.Wea.Rev.,1985,113(4):599606[14]..,1985,30:10871089LiChongyin.ElNinoandthewesternPacifictyphoonactivi2ty.ChineseScienceBulletin(inChinese),1985,30:10871089[15],..,1989,5(4):345350DongKeqin,ZhongShuan.ThecorrelationbetweenSST