气象资料的统计降尺度方法综述

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26820118ADVANCESINEARTHSCIENCEVol.26No.8Aug.20111001-8166201108-0837-11?12341.4540002.2100933.—1000294.276004。、33。、、4。、尓、、Poisson—。、、。P432+.1AGCM。GCM。GCM。0.5°~1°。3GCMRegionalClimateModel。GCM2。。、。?2011-02-142011-04-14.*“”40975049“——”40810059003“”HRM200904.1976-、.E-mailsucksis@163.com。。1。。2~7。。1GCM8。、、。、、、、、。2。、、、。。9。①②③。10。2TransferFunctionMethod、WeatherPatternMethodStochasticWeatherGenerator1131。3Markov。。2.1。、CCA1Fig.1Theapproachesforstatisticaldownscaling83826SVD。Hertig121990—2100。Huth132。。ANN“”1314。Ramírez16~18ANN、CCAANN。SVM209019~23。ANN、GeneralizedAdditionalModel、、GeneticProgramming。2.2。。2。、、、、、1。。24~27、、28、K2930、。。。2.3131。。。。。RichardsonMarkovWGEN323322MarkovGamma。Woolhiser34~36Markov。Markov。、、Markov。clusteredpointprocessMarkov。3。。3.1。3738。。1039~41。、9388Markov、。3.2、。。、、。。。SDSM8。Bogardi29Hughes42。Gao43。3.32。Markov。。Markov。Wilks44。RichardsonWGEN。4546。Wilkskkk-1。Kot-tegoda47Harpham48。。3.4。。Markov。Wilks。。、。4。。4.1Zorita9199549。Zorita50。04826285152。4.2Pana-goulia53CO2。24~27。KBogardi29K。Wilson30K、、K。4.3HMM54。HMM。HughesNHMM5556。NHMMHMMNHMMGCM。NHMM、Pattern、115758。4.4GeneralizedLinearModels。Coe59MarkovGLMMarkov。GLM、。GLM6061。FeallyGLMYang3962~64。4.5ClusteredPointProcessPois-son。。207065~73。206567Veneziano72。21。4.6MondelbrotLovejoySchertzer74~76。77~82。80。Schertzer83MultifractalMulplicativeCascadeMethod84~8990~93。9394Deid-da85—。Lovejoy76。。4.7。Bremnes95Friederichs96。Vrac97GeneralizedAdditiveModelsGAM。Hessami98。Hervada-Sa-la99。Coulibaly1001488。Pandey101—5km。。4.8R、Matlab、Python。R。Fortran。Richard-son32WGENWilby8SDSMBurton102RainSimRebora103RainFARM。5、、、。。。Huth138Lim10420km2。。。。、NHMM。NHMM、。。。、。。、NHMM。。。。。62090、。。1。ANNSVM24826、、。ANN。2。、NHMM、Markov、、。。3。。。。4。。。References1FanLijunFuCongbinChenDeliang.ReviewoncreatingfutureclimatechangescenariosbystatisticaldownscalingtechniquesJ.AdvancesinEarthScience2005203320-329..J.2005203320-329.2WeiFengyingHuangJiayou.AstudyofpredictabilityforsummerprecipitationonEastChinausingdownscalingtechniquesJ.JournalofTropicalMeteorology2010264483-488..J.2010264483-488.3HuangJunxiongXuZongxueLiuZhaofeietal.Analysisoffu-tureclimatechangeintheTaihuBasinusingstatisticaldownscalingJ.ResourcesScience200830121811-1817..J.200830121811-1817.4LiuJifengLiShijieDingYuguo.ForecastingofwaterlevelofQinghaiLakebasedonstatisticsdownscalingfromclimaticmodelJ.AdvancesinWaterScience2008192184-191..J.2008192184-191.5ZhaoFangfangXuZongxue.Statisticaldownscalingoffuturetem-peraturechangeinsourceoftheYellowRiverBasinJ.PlateauMeteorology2008271153-161..J.2008271153-161.6TangJianpingGaoHongxiaLiYanetal.AssessmentofwindenergypotentialinChinaduringthe21stcenturyundertheIPCC-A2scenarioJ.ActaEnergiaeSolarisSinica2009305655-666..IPCC-A221J.2009305655-666.7FanLijunFuCongbinChenDeliang.Estimationoflocaltem-peraturechangescenariosinNorthChinausingstatisticaldown-scalingmethodJ.ChineseJournalofAtmosphericSciences2007315887-897..J.2007315887-897.8WilbyRLDawsonCWBarrowEM.SDSM—Adecisionsup-porttoolfortheassessmentofregionalclimatechangeimpactsJ.EnvironmentalModelling&Software2002172147-159.9ZoritaEHughesJPLettemaierDPetal.Stochasticcharacter-izationofregionalcirculationpatternsforclimatemodeldiagnosisandestimationoflocalprecipitationJ.JournalofClimate1995851023-1042.10CharlesSPBatesBCHughesJP.AspatiotemporalmodelfordownscalingprecipitationoccurrenceandamountsJ.JournalofGeophysicalResearch-Atmospheres1999104D2431657-31669.11KioutsioukisIMelasDZanisP.StatisticaldownscalingofdailyprecipitationoverGreeceJ.InternationalJournalofClimatolo-gy2008285679-691.12HertigEJacobeitJ.AssessmentsofMediterraneanprecipitationchangesforthe21stcenturyusingstatisticaldownscalingtech-niquesJ.InternationalJournalofClimatology20082881025-1045.13HuthRKliegrovaSMetelkaL.Non-linearityinstatisticaldownscalingDoesitbringanimprovementfordailytemperatureinEuropeJ.InternationalJournalofClimatology2008284465-477.14GrecuMKrajewskiWF.Alarge-sampleinvestigationofstatis-ticalproceduresforradar-basedshort-termquantitativeprecipita-tionforecastingJ.JournalofHydrology20002391/469-84.15TolikaKMaherasPVafiadisMetal.SimulationofseasonalprecipitationandraindaysoverGreeceAstatisticaldownscaling3488techniquebasedonArtificialNeuralNetworksANNsJ.In-ternationalJournalofClimatology2007277861-881.16RamírezMCFerreiraNJVelhoHFC.LinearandnonlinearstatisticaldownscalingforrainfallforecastingoverSoutheasternBrazilJ.WeatherandForecasting2006216969-989.17LiuXLCoulibalyPEvoraN.Comparisonofdata-drivenmeth-odsfordownscalingensembleweatherforecastsJ.HydrologyandEarthSystemSciences2008122615-624.18Fernandez-FerreroASaenzJIbarra-BerastegiGetal.Evalu-ationofstatisticaldownscalinginshortrangeprecipitationforecas-tingJ.AtmosphericResearch2009943448-461.19AnandhiASrinivasVVKumarDNetal.RoleofpredictorsindownscalingsurfacetemperaturetoriverbasininIndiaforIPCCSRESscenariosusingsupportvectormachineJ.Interna-tionalJournalofClimatology2009294583-603.20ChenHGuoJXiongWetal.DownscalingGCMsusingthesmoothsupportvectormachinemethodtopredictdailyprecipitati-onintheHanjiangBasinJ.AdvancesinAtmosphericSciences201027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