神经网络在短时交通量预测中的应用

五邑大学本科毕业设计I摘要进入21世纪以来，人们的社会生活水平逐渐提高，随着车辆在大多数城市居民中的普及，城市交通拥堵问题恶化迅速。为切实地解决这个问题，合理地安排交通运行，提高交通设施的使用效率，必须进行交通流的合理分配以及信号灯的优化配置，准确的短时交通流量预测是解决这些问题的重要依据。近年来BP神经网络被广泛应用于预测研究。本文设计了三层BP神经网络用于短时交通流量预测。将预测日前三天同时段的交通量作为输入信号，预测当日某时段的交通量。文中用江门市区小时交通量数据进行了仿真实验，结果表明该用方法进行短时交通流量预测是可行的。最后，对预测结果的准确性进行分析和讨论。关键词短时交通流量；BP神经网络；改进；仿真；预测五邑大学本科毕业设计IIAbstractSincetwenty-firstCentury,thesociallifelevelofpeopleisincreasinggradually,alongwiththevehicleinmostcityresidentsinthepopular,citytrafficcongestionproblemdeterioratedrapidly.Inordertosolvethisproblem,arrangethetransportationoperationrationally,improvetheefficiencyoftheuseoftransportationfacilities,optimizetheallocationofareasonableallocationtotrafficflowandsignallamp,accuratetrafficflowforecastingisanimportantbasisforsolvingtheseproblems.Inrecentyears,theBPneuralnetworkhasbeenwidelyusedinthepredictionof.Thispaperdesignstheshort-termtrafficflowforecastingforthethreelayerBPneuralnetwork.Thepredictionoftrafficvolumeinthreedaystimerecentlyastheinputsignal,thetrafficvolumeforecastatatime.WithJiangmenurbantrafficvolumedatabasedonthesimulationresults,theresultsshowthatthemethodforshort-termtrafficflowforecastingisfeasible.Finally,theaccuracyofthepredictionresultsareanalyzedanddiscussed.KeywordsShort-termtrafficflowBPneuralnetworkImproveSimulationForecast五邑大学本科毕业设计目录摘要............................................................................................................................................IAbstract.........................................................................................................................................II第1章绪论...................................................................................................................................11.1课题背景...........................................................................................................................11.2研究目的和意义...............................................................................................................11.3本文研究的主要内容.......................................................................................................11.4本文章节安排...................................................................................................................2第2章神经网络介绍...................................................................................................................32.1神经网络的发展现状.......................................................................................................32.2神经网络的结构...............................................................................................................32.2.1人工神经元.............................................................................................................32.2.2神经网络的结构.....................................................................................................42.3神经网络的应用与存在问题...........................................................................................62.3.1神经网络的应用.....................................................................................................62.3.2神经网络存在的问题.............................................................................................72.4本章小结...........................................................................................................................7第3章BP神经网络及其算法......................................................................................................83.1BP神经网络概述..............................................................................................................83.2BP神经网络的结构..........................................................................................................83.3BP算法............................................................................................................................103.3.1BP算法的基本原理..............................................................................................103.3.2BP算法计算步骤..................................................................................................133.4BP神经网络的学习方式................................................................................................143.5BP神经网络性能分析....................................................................................................153.5.1BP网络优点..........................................................................................................153.5.2BP网络的不足......................................................................................................153.5.3BP网络的缺陷与改进..........................................................................................153.6本章小结.........................................................................................................................16第4章短时交通流量预测网络.................................................................................................174.1BP神经网络的设计与训练............................................................................................17五邑大学本科毕业设计4.1.1BP神经网络的设计方法...........................................................