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20085(170)POPULATION&ECONOMICSNo.5,2008(Tot.No.170),(,710049):,,(ELES),,,1997200645%,;,,2012,:;;:F840167:A:1000-4149(2008)05-0066-05:2007-09-03:(1981-),,,:AnEmpiricalAnalysisontheCalculationofPensionInsuranceSubstitutionRateAlertnessLine:BasedonShanxiProvinceSUNBo,YONGLan(SchoolofPublicPolicyandAdministration,XianJiaotongUniversity,Xian,710049,China)Abstract:Inaccordancewiththeprincipalthatpensioninsurancemustsatisfywithbasiclivingdemandofretiredstaff,thepensioninsurancesubstitutionratealertnesslineisfixedatthelowerlimit.BasedonExtendLinearExpenditureSystem(ELES)thepensioninsurancesubstitutionratealertnessmodelandindicatorsystemareestablished,andanempiricalanalysistakingShanxiProvinceasexampleismade.Theresultsdemonstratesthatfrom1997to2006,thesubstitutionratealertnesslinewas45%,remainingsteady;whileduringthesameperiod,therealsubstitutionratedecreasedatarelativelyhighspeed.Thetrendwillcontinue.Thealertnesslevelwillhavebeenreachedaround2012,whichwillbringaboutseversimpactonretiredstaffsbasiclivingconditions.Keywords:pensioninsurancesubstitutionrate;alertnessline;ExtendLinearExpenditureSystem,2005,,66,[1],,,,1997,200610,70134%50130%,20%,,,,,,,(Schreiber),,[2];(Levy),401K,[3];(Rehder),,[4],[5],,[6],,[7],,[8],,,,,,(ExtendLinearExpenditureSystem,ELES),,,,(),,ELES,ELES(Lunch)(LES)ELES:Ci=Ci+bi(I-ki=1Ci)(i=1,2,,k;0bi1;ki=1bi1)(1),Cii;Cii;bii;I;bi(I-ki=1Ci)i76:,,,,,1997-2006,,,,C(1):Ci=(Ci-biki=1Ci)+biI(2)ai=Ci-biki=1Ci(3):Ci=ai+biI+i(4),iiCiI,,(4)aibiCaibii,(3):ki=1ai=ki=1Ci-ki=1biki=1Ci=ki=1Ci(1-ki=1bi),C=ki=1Ci=ki=1ai(1-ki=1bi)(5)(5),,T=CW=ki=1aiP(1-ki=1bi)W=ki=1aiW(1-ki=1bi)(6),T,W(),;,,,,,,,;,,,;,,,,11(X1)(Y1)(X2)(Y2)(X3)(Y3)(X)(X4)(Y)(Y4)(X5)(Y5)(X6)(Y6)(X7)(X8)()86,,1997-2006,11997,,1997,19982007,;,()19972006(4),,SPSS1110aibi^ai^biR2,23219972006X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8^ai7191881361542-2011038-121475-5185315010932211994-2615151998^bi0116701083011240105801047010580104101045R20199301968019830194201955019410192101839^ai7381144591529-2391001531901-3818576116412101392-1021372000^bi0116101068011410105401067010970105001063R20197401941019580198501973019660172201888^ai925173912418613911331517831171117167135710015762711612002^bi0114301061010630106801058011030108201022R20196401991019880199001968019980197001997^ai96313681521062-5316059714646217723451350401621313352004^bi0115801057010580105201065011080107601026R20196801930019960197101964019540195201995^ai10971350421935-71854991345821549302182328318472610272006^bi0114701072010510108901071011230103401062R20191401923019640190801962019540199101987319972006Y1T2Y3Y4Y5Y6^ai-01874-821316-01802-381637-31514-2617941998^bi0100020107201000010370100201012R2015633019800156730184601640301867^ai-51665-111082-01503-69133411860-2615162000^bi010020105501000010450100101011R201801019160146630193501621301890^ai-18127681285-71653-1100841006118382002^bi010050104901003010420100101003R20188901994019510182401291301932^ai-431166201665-21975-1071274-31080-114722004^bi010090105201016010680100201004R20190301921017083019590197801986^ai-671128-71803-31314-381496-21116-713362006^bi010110104301017010340101501004R2019120192301701301943018900192896,,,4;23,3(=0105),,,(=0105)()2319972006(6),,4419972006()()(%)(%)1998ai8821629-1521936287218360291004716568105bi01623011232000ai7431378-1051051342412078041004414067190bi01700011142002ai15181022-1218075068106103511004819667121bi01600011032004ai16111367-13713025872177130241004510957131bi01598011512006ai19271023-12611937939162169181004619355115bi0164901124:19972006;199720064,1997200645101%,,1998,,1998;2002,20024,1997200619972006,1997200640%50%,45101%,,;199727127%20064185%,,,4,,t,1997t1,:T=-1199t+75134(7)R2=01749,=010015,14,1997200645101%,,(7)T=45101,t=15124,,2012,,,(65)07,,,,,,,:[1],.[J].,2001,41(2):55-601[2]G.Orcutt.ANewTypeofSocial2EconomicSystem[J].ReviewofeconomicsandStatistics,1957,(58):773-7971[3]J.Nelissen.SocialSecurityandLifetimeIncomeRedistribution:aMicrosimulationApproach[A].A.Harding.MicrosimulationandPublicPolicy[C].North2Holland,1996.267-2921[4]H.Galler.MicrosimulationofPensionReformProposals:ModellingtheEarningsofCouples[A].A.Harding.MicrosimulationandPublicPolicy[C].North2Holland,1996.293-3121[5]B.Eklind,I.Eriksson,J.HusseniusandM.Muller.PensionAnalysisinaStaticModelwithLifetimeIncomeDistribution:InitialResult[A].A.Harding.MicrosimulationandPublicPolicy[C].North2Holland,1996.313-3281[6]L.Andreassen,D.Fredriksen,O.Ljones.TheFutureBurnofPublicPensionBenefits:aMicrosimulationStudy[A].A.Harding.MicrosimulationandPublicPolicy[C].North-Holland,1996.329-3571[7]R.Morrson.DYNACAN,theCanadaPensionPlanPolicyModel:DemographicsandEarningsComponents[A].A.Gupta,V.Kapur.MicrosimulationinGovernmentPolicyandForecasting[C].ElsevierScience,2000.341-3601[8]C.Bonnet,R.Mahieu.PublicPensionsinaDynamicMicroanalyticFramework:theCaseofFrance[A].L.Mitton,H.Sutherland,M.Weeks.MicrosimulationModellingforPolicyAnalysis:ChallengesandInnovations[C].CambridgeUniversityPress,2000.175-1991[9]S.Caldwell,R.Morrison.ValidationofLongitudinalDynamicMicrosimulationModels:ExperiencewithCORSIMandDYNACAN[A]