北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟II热带太平洋强迫Ξ

II:X112,3HelgeDrange31LASG,,1000292NZC,,1000293NansenEnvironmentalandRemoteSensingCenter,Bergen,Norway(BCM),,,BCM,3,,-+-,,,,-PNA,NAO,NAO,23:,,,,1,-(ENSO)[123]ENSO,[4],ENSO,,[5],,ENSO(SLP)(NAO)[627]19511996,SLPNAO(SST)Nino3[8];,NAONino319001991(-0.24)[9],NinoNAO[829],ENSO,[10212],ENSO[13217]Grotzner[18],1997/1998ElNi‰no1998LaNinaDong[19]SST,1997/19981998/1999ENSOElNi‰noLaNinaPozo2Vazquez[20],,ENSO,SLP,ENSO,SLP,NAODong[19]1998/1999LaNina64120062ACTAMETEOROLOGICASINICAVol.64,No.1February2006X:2005718;:2005108:(2005CB321703)(40375029,40233031):,,1969,,©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,Fraedrich[11],ENSOLauNath[21],ENSO,;SSTPohlman,SST1997/1998ElNi‰no,SSTNAO,/SLPSLP,Pozo2Vazquez[20]-(PNA)Giannini[22223]ENSOLau[24226],;SLP;ENSO,PNAPNANAO,ENSONAO,,Pozo2Vazquez[20],SSTSSTLatifGrotzner[27]ENSOSSTSaravanChangLi[28229]ENSO,,,Rajagopalan[30]SSTNAOWatanabeKimo2to[31]SSTNAORobertson[32]SSTNAO(BCM),,BCM(NordicSeas)[33234]SST[35],BCM328,28,BCMSST,[33],,,,,,2,,(EOF)BCM300,SST(1135)EOF,(1a),SST,ElNi‰no()(1b)Nino3(5N5S,15090W)SST(1c)0.98,BCM,ElNi‰no,,,[36]Nino(PC1)Morlet[37](2),,95%3,,300,3ENSO,[36]Nino()SLPSSTPohlmannH.(2003),InfluenceofSSTontheNAOvariability([e-mail])911:II:©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1SSTEOF(a)(b)Nino3(c)(:)(aEOFSST,b)Fig.1SpatialpatternofthefirstEOFmodeofwintertimemean(Nov2Mar)modelSSTanomalies(a),theassociatednormalizedprincipalcomponent(b),andtheNino3index(c)timeseries(unitsare;TheEOFpatternisshownasthecorrelationcoefficientbetweentheSSTanomaliesandtheprincipalcomponent)3SLP(SO),SLP,,,SLP-+-,PNASLP,[5]SLP,SLP,(AAO)[38]ENSO,,,AAO[39240]NinoSST(3b)([41]11[42]),EN2SO,,,0264©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2Nino(PC1)(a)NinoMorlet(b)(a95%;b95%)Fig.2Powerspectrum(a),andthelocalMorletwaveletspectrumofthesimulatedNinoindextimeseries(b)(Thedashedlineof(a)representthe95%confidencelimits.Shadedregionsof(b)areabovethe95%confidencelimits.Theunitofx2axisis1/ain(a),andtheunitofy2axisisain(b))3Nino(PC1)(a)(b)(95%;)Fig.3SpatialpatternofthecorrelationcoefficientbetweentheanomalousSLP(a),SST(b)andthewintertimemean(Nov2Mar)Ninoindextimeseries(Onlycontoursabovethe95%confidencelimitsareshown.Shadedregionsrepresentpositivecorrelations)121:II:©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.ENSO[43],,(DMI)SST,SONAO[44]ENSO,,,,BCMENSO,,,[43]BCMENSOSST,,,(3040N)SST[36],,BCMENSO,ENSO33.1,BCMNAO[34][35],SLP,,[8,45246]NAOENSO,1cNino3NAO([34]4b)-0.23,95%HadCM2[8],NCARCSM,ECHAM4CCSR[9],,Ni2noNAO,19001949,19511996,,NinoNAO[8]NAO[6,47],SLPNAO,NAONino3(-0.24)[9]-SLPNAO,,BCM,,Hoerling[48],NAOSST(SST,[35]3b),SLP/(4)-3+1,SLPSO,-1,SST1SLP,SSTNino,ElNi‰no;SST(-+-)NAO[35]SST,4,SSTSST/(5)-3,-2,-1,1aElNi‰no,5ENSOLaNi2naSST/,()SST,6Nino3SST/,Nino3SST3,,,,,,SST?7Nino3SLP,SLPPNA,SLP,,2264©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.4SSTSLP/(-1(+1)SST()1;0.2;95%a.-3,b.-2,c.-1,d.0,e.+1,f.+2)Fig.4LaggedcorrelationsbetweenthePacificSLPanomaliesandtheNorthAtlantictri2polarSSTindextimeseriesinthemodel(Alagof-1(+1)indicatesconditions1monthprior(subsequent)toamaximuminthetri2polarNorthAtlanticSSTpattern.Contourintervalis0.2.Shadedregionsareabovethe95%confidencelimits;a.Lag-3months,b.lag-2months,c.lag-1months,d.lag0months,e.lag+1monthsandf.lag+2months)3,SLPNAOBCMElNi‰noSST,PNANAO7,63.24,8,SLPNCEP/NCAR[49]SST[35]1a,SST,SSTHadleySST42,SLP,,321:II:©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.5SSTSST/(-1(+1)SST()1;0.2,95%;a.-3,b.-2,c.-1,d.0,e.+1,f.+2)Fig.5LaggedcorrelationsbetweenthePacificSSTanomaliesandtheNorthAtlantictri2polarSSTindextimeseriesinthemodel(Alagof-1(+1)indicatesconditions1monthprior(subsequent)toamaximuminthetri2polarNorthAtlanticSSTpatternContourintervalis0.2.Shadedregionsareabovethe95%confidencelimits;a.Lag-3months,b.lag-2months,c.lag-1months,d.lag0months,e.lag+1months,andf.lag+2months)6BCMNino3SST/(NinoSST,)Fig.6Theleading2lagcorrelationcoefficientsbetweenhemonthlyNino3indexandtheNorthAtlantictri2polarSSTindexinBCM(Negativevaluesofthex2axisindicatesthemonthsoftheNinoindexleadingthetri2polarSSTindex,whilepositivevaluesofthex2axisindicatesthemonthsofthetri2polarSSTindexleadingtheNinoindex.They2axisindicatesthecorrelationcoefficient.(15090W),,,SSTSLP,,,,5SST9SST32,SST1,SSTSST160E,,;,4264©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.7BCMNino3SLP(+1SLP1(hPa/);a.3,b.2,c.1d.095%)Fig.7LaggedcorrelationsbetweentheSLPanomaliesandtheNino3indexinthemodel(Alagof-1(+1)indicatesconditions1monthprior(subsequent)toamaximumintheeasternPacificwarmeventUnitsarehPaperstandarddeviation.Shadedregionsareabovethe95%confidencelimits;a.Lag-3months,b.lag-2months,c.lag-1months,andd.lag0months)84,-4+1Fig.8SameasFig.4butfortheobservationandthelagtimerangesfrom-4to1months521:II:©1995-2006TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.95,Fig.9SameasFig.5butfortheobservation,,10NinoSST/,Ni2no41,14,SSTNino106,Fig.10SameasFig.6butfortheobservation,,1NinoSLP0311SLP,--PNA,31023,SLPNAO,,NAO,,ENSONAO