区域金融综合竞争力的模糊曲线分析

106200412()J.CENT.SOUTHUNIV.(SOCIALSCIENCE)Vol.10No6Dec.2004,(浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州,310027):针对目前区域金融研究现状的不足,建立了金融综合竞争力指标体系,将其分为显示性指标和解释性指标两部分,选取31个地区作为样本,运用主成分和因子分析法对各个区域的金融成长状况进行计量分析研究和排序,并在此基础上进行聚类分析,将全国31个省区分为7类;在解释性指标的模糊曲线分析中,选取设施力指标,通过分析得出该指标与金融综合竞争力存在显著相关关系设施力对区域金融综合竞争力的解释力和贡献率较高,因此金融基础设施对金融的发展水平起着重要作用:区域金融综合竞争力;指标体系;显示性指标;解释性指标;模糊曲线:F830:A:16723104(2004)06074006,,;[1](),,,;,;,,;[2]:,,!∀,#∃,[3]2080,IMD,8:,,,[4],,,,,,,,[5],IMD8290,,427:20040723;:20041101:(1958),,,,,:.;,,,,,()(),,!∀,,??,,,,,[6],,,,,[7],,,,!∀[8],,,[9];,,,[10],,,,,,,,,,[11],(IUD)!∀,,,,,,,[12],,,[13],,,7416,::,;,8,,,,8,,(fuzzycurve),31,,,!∀,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2)1区域金融综合竞争力指标体系XX1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8FF1GDPF11F12F13F2/F21F22F23F3F31F311F312F313F32F321F322F323F4/F41F42/F43F44F5F51F511R&DF512F52F521F522F523F524F525F6F61F611F612F62F621F622F63F7F71F72F73F74F8F81F82F83742()102变量之间的相关性检验KMO.0.804Approx.Chi-Square416.324df.28Sig.0.000,KMO0.804,0.000,=1%,,%85%,,33金融综合竞争力主成分的特征值及方差比重%%15.91573.94273.94221.03912.99386.93530.7108.87395.80840.2282.85598.66355.234E-020.65499.31862.931E-020.36699.68472.049E-020.25699.94084.798E-035.997E-02100.000%%15.89973.74173.74121.05513.19486.935Varimax,73.741%,13.194%,86.935%,85%,,(4),&F1,;∋F2,(FF=(F1*73.741+F2*13.194)/86.9354旋转后的主公共因子12X10.947-1.843E-03X20.9673.506E-02X3-1.717E-020.968X40.9482.775E-02X50.9502.881E-02X60.852-0.222X70.779-0.254X80.9663.956E-02,(5)5各地区得分RegionFac1Fac2FacRegionFac1Fac2Fac0.645942.020820.8546040.28002-0.250320.199531-0.043640.621040.057238-0.80868-1.10338-0.853411.67609-1.023771.266336-0.58915-0.91564-0.6387-0.36157-0.01885-0.30956-1.07705-1.24605-1.10270.923060.795840.903752-0.54475-0.09743-0.476861.19715-0.671940.913481-0.429880.34017-0.313012.77795-1.238392.168396-0.28603-0.47627-0.31490.91048-0.9090.63434-0.423650.93997-0.2167-0.07316-0.07374-0.07325-0.72124-0.53145-0.692442.809190.096582.397501-0.340670.79542-0.16825-0.84097-0.3338-0.764-0.514660.64779-0.33824-0.43609-0.87091-0.502080.05030.277560.084791-0.98148-0.5536-0.916540.161712.324110.489894-0.97732-0.74723-0.9424-0.144722.582960.269256-0.61438-0.13795-0.54207-0.472290.52979-0.32021-0.75051-0.77232-0.753826,,,-1.1027,-0.91654,,,,,(6)6金融综合竞争力聚类结果6,11,8,3,1,7436,:,,,?,,F2,F1,F2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(financialinfrastructure),()(,)()[14],;;,;,;,,(7)7金融基础设施主成分的特征值及方差比重%%13.08051.32951.32921.60626.77178.10030.89114.85392.95240.2804.66097.61258.264E-021.37798.99066.062E-021.010100.000%%13.08051.32951.32921.60626.77178.10020.89114.85392.95278.1%,,92.952%F1,F1;F2,;F3,,(8)8,10,7,2,1,3,,,,,;2930,1511744()108金融基础设施与综合竞争力排名F1F2F3F2.326751.62835-1.199781.562118122.73308-0.971911.746331.508365212.051.79237-1.688621.3784233-0.741093.399153.611531.1468424311.55699-0.264191.103070.959958571.40745-1.093320.649850.566163640.573370.06334-0.246360.2954977130.37990.99509-1.358370.2793228160.44773-1.147210.554910.005504950.37474-0.56834-0.38772-0.01871106-0.732481.2428-0.09821-0.0622411290.04712-1.173530.75153-0.191881210-0.499420.50919-0.65747-0.234191323-0.595710.043760.33882-0.262211424-0.18514-0.804320.3534-0.277421512-0.38533-0.757120.78086-0.30606169-0.27124-0.69471-0.01735-0.35264178-0.16846-0.50583-0.74089-0.35711818-0.53654-0.16589-0.14461-0.367171921-0.781770.33998-0.2546-0.374472026-0.744430.43774-0.68067-0.393772127-0.796480.60686-0.85202-0.401192230-0.646990.00635-0.28961-0.401722325-0.64233-0.01795-0.43463-0.429322422-0.47251-0.3554-0.47947-0.43992519-0.46468-0.61367-0.06948-0.444452614-0.74644-0.0832-0.05766-0.445372720-0.45036-0.12169-1.02512-0.447552817-0.53654-0.53677-0.06423-0.461142915-0.44274-1.026810.42405-0.472463011-1.05644-0.163120.4325-0.561253128,,:,,,,;,8,,,,,&,,0.3621,,,:0.2930.6280.2120.2240.0690.372,,,,,,,,1金融基础设施力与金融综合竞争力的模糊曲线拟合图形(1),,,,(2),,7456,:(3),,,,,(4),:[1]GeorgeM.VonFurstenberg,MicheleFratianni.Indicatorsoffinancialdevelopment[J].NorthAmericanJournalofEconomics&Finance1996,7(1)19-29.[2].[J].,1999,(4):1720.[3].[M].:,2003.4158.[4].IMD[J].,2002,(5):5254.[5].[M].:,2002.318322.[6].[N].,20040220(7).[7].[M].:,2003.345360.[8],.[M].:,2000.[9],.[J].,2002,(10):113.[10].[M].:,2002.[11].[J].,2003,(8):4244.[12].[M].:,2002.[13].[M].:,2001.[14].[M].:,2002.ThefuzzycurveanalysisofregionaloverallfinancialcompetitivenessJINXuejun,TIANLin(CollegeofEconomics,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310027,China)Abstract:Inviewoftheincompleteanalysisofregionalfinance,thispaperestablishestheregionaloverallfinancialcompetitivesystemofindices,includingdisplayindicesandexplainableindices.Somenewideashavebeenbroughtforthbreakthroughsmadeinthearticle:Itdevelopsanewanalysisframefortheregionaloverallfinancialcompetitiveness;Itsuggests!FuzzyCurve∀methodapplication.Italsouseshierarchicalclusterproceduretoanalyzealltheregionsandclassifiesthemintosevengrades.Italsodrawsaconclusionthatfinancialinfrastructureisvitalandcontributivetoregionaloverallfinancialcompetitiveness.Keywords:regionaloverallfinancialcompetitiveness;systemofindices;displayindices;explainableindices;fuzzycurve[:]746()10