:,,,,,,;;,,(:100037)F113A1006-9550(2007)11-0062-10,,,,,,,,,,,,(EPRD)(CMI),,,,,,,,,,,261958,19691970,,,,,1979,[],:,:,2003,152154200711,,,,,,:(1);(2);(3);(4),,;,;,,,,,,;,,,,,(),(IMF),20056,19952(BIS),2006,18143,19963126416520066,370,1998672,4,,2006114,20003,,,,,,,,,,19962090,,,1996,1000,1/3,1990199351997,120199660%,40%2006()()2690,19962,,1997,2002,200557%,,,,2004,(GDP)2125%,36IMF,GlobalCapitalFlows:DefyingGravity,FinanceandDe2velopment,March2007,://::,:,2007,45StephenGrenville,AsianCrisis,CapitalFlowsandtheInterna2tionalFinancialArchitecture,://aric.adb.org/pdf/aem/jul07/July%20AEM%20complete%20250707.pdf.GDP7125%,;,,,2430,GDP516%,19968,,,,200510%30%,200750%,,,,(),,,,,(Basel),,,,,,2006,12%,20%;,711%,7%,5%,018%(),2006,80%,,70%,4%,015%,515%(ABMI)(ABF),200612,28404,19973550,7;,16500,GDP5811%,()11905,GDP4119%,87%99%66%,,,,(theEconomistIntelli2genceUnit,EIU),,,199767195316,8517681471147014;,78168918,46:DavidCowen,etal.,FinancialIntegrationinAsia:RecentDe2velopmentsandNextSteps,IMFWorkingPaper,August2006,://aric.adb.org/pdf/aem/jul07/July%20AEM%20complete%20250707.pdf.RodrigodeRato,CapitalFlowsinanInterconnectedWorld,SpeechattheSEACENGovernorsConference,Bangkok,Thailand,July28,2007,://://asian2bondsonline.adb.org/documents/abm_apr2007.pdf.200711351769141(GDP)200520052006200620071.33.03.96.36.76.18.57.89.77.9-2.7-3.4-2.5-2.4-0.7-3.5-3.8-3.3-3.0-2.41.51.72.02.02.00.00.10.10.10.03.0-2.01.6-2.1-0.42.51.11.91.41.41.90.81.91.64.0-2.4-4.4-2.3-5.1-5.9-0.9-1.50.0-0.8-0.52.5-0.95.63.55.9:AsiaEconomicMonitor2007,July2007,2006,8570,GDP615%,,,,,2002,,,,GDP,-1518%-616%-710%-1411%-310%,,2006,(),GDP7%,1996,()1088,2006,4064,2.8;(++++)19973840,2006,211,19974,2006,3,560%,,,,,(1)1.,,;,56ADB,AsianDevelopmentOutlook,2007,://:LessonsfromAsia,OccasionalPaper188,IMF,1999,://://:2001WorldEconomicOutlookDatabase,20022006(1),,2000,2006100%,200%,50%;2003,2006150%2005,2007914,97%167%,,23%,70158%,1719%,19186%,23177%,-7172%7169%,2123%2.,2004218%,2005115%,2006117%2006120077,9%16%10%34%,,,,,,,,,3.,,,4.,,,,,,66:=Stockc.IMFRepresentativeExchangeRatesforSelectedCurrencies,:;,,,;,;,55%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,;,+(10+3),,,,(),,,20005,(10+3)76CommuniquoftheInternationalMonetaryandFinancialCommit2teeoftheBoardofGovernorsoftheInternationalMonetaryFund,April22,2006,://://:ImplicationsforRegionalCooperation,August2006,ADB,WorkingPaperSeriesonRegionalEconomicIntegrationNo.4,::,19971998,,,(contactpersons),,10+3,,,,,,,,2005:(1)10+3;(2);(3),,;(4)20%20075,8002007510+3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20%,,,,,,,800,160,,1997,,,,,()(ABM)10+386:TheJointMinisterialStatementoftheASEAN+3FinanceMin2istersMeeting,ChiangMai,Thailand,May6,2000,://://:RationaleandNeedforDecision2MakingBodyandExtendedRegionalSurveillanceun2dertheASEAN+3Framework,November2000,(EMEAP)20038710+3,2002,30:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10+3,,,,,,,10+3,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,10+3,96:,,20061,6874BarryEichengreen,TheGlobalImbalancesandtheAsianEcono2mies:ImplicationsforRegionalCooperation,August2006.,,,,10+310+320075,10+3,,:,,,,,,